List Mgmt. 2018 Trade, Free Agency & Draft thread

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Apr 24, 2013
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I'd be happy with Sloane and Kelly over the next 2 years

Sloane would be 29 by the time he got to round 1 2019. Will the Crows or Sloane demand a trade? He would cost too much for a 70-90 game player on the decline. No thanks.
 
Jun 9, 2001
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Sloane would be 29 by the time he got to round 1 2019. Will the Crows or Sloane demand a trade? He would cost too much for a 70-90 game player on the decline. No thanks.

Yeh I'm confused why he'd be of any value other than role model style leadership to us - which you don't fork out top $$ for.

Unless we pull a rabbit out of the hat in the next 2 years the club look to have moved all our chips onto 2020-25 so all decisions should now be viewed from that focus.

Rory Sloane is a very good player one of my favourites outside North in fact but not for us.
 
Something that has me somewhat bemused is the high number of delistings at all clubs this year, in a year when the draft is said to be very shallow. Maybe the number has been just as high in years gone by and I haven't realised it but it all seems a bit odd in my opinion. In our case I was surprised at all of Gibbo, Fishy and LT getting delisted, given their replacements are going to be in the tail end of the draft or re-cycled from other clubs.

Granted some clubs such as Port Adelaide and Carlton have also traded in players, but the overall picture is in my eyes at least higher than normal.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings

Any ideas anyone on this?
 
Apr 24, 2013
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Something that has me somewhat bemused is the high number of delistings at all clubs this year, in a year when the draft is said to be very shallow. Maybe the number has been just as high in years gone by and I haven't realised it but it all seems a bit odd in my opinion. In our case I was surprised at all of Gibbo, Fishy and LT getting delisted, given their replacements are going to be in the tail end of the draft or re-cycled from other clubs.

Granted some clubs such as Port Adelaide and Carlton have also traded in players, but the overall picture is in my eyes at least higher than normal.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings

Any ideas anyone on this?

The free agency thing has created a new scenario where it is presently difficult to gauge trends. The market is much more dynamic as a result.

In our case, we are preparing the list for 2020 and onwards. Teams like Port are loading up for 2018.
 
The free agency thing has created a new scenario where it is presently difficult to gauge trends. The market is much more dynamic as a result.

In our case, we are preparing the list for 2020 and onwards. Teams like Port are loading up for 2018.

Yes I understand what we are doing however there still has to be some good depth of talent to pick up and everyone seems to be saying this draft doesn't have it. In our case however, our numbers delisted are below most other clubs. In fact our number is pretty reasonable and in a good draft year, maybe not enough. Maybe the club thinks that if we pick up a couple of extra kids/recycled players, we can have a risk free look at them over the next 12 months and who knows, we might find a player. If not we can clear the decks at the end of 2018 and go hell for leather at the 2018 draft.

But I'm more surprised at the numbers delisted at other clubs. Every club is at a different stage of the so called "winning a premiership" cycle and I don't understand why they are cutting heavily this year.

I agree with what Port's intentions are and that's fair enough on their part. The net change in numbers in their case is pretty reasonable.
 
Apr 24, 2013
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Yes I understand what we are doing however there still has to be some good depth of talent to pick up and everyone seems to be saying this draft doesn't have it. .

Okay, my comments were more in relation to what we really need. I honestly believe we are set when it comes to forward and defender and rucks. Perhaps another KPF, if one is there.

I can't see any 200 game dyed in the wool midfielders slipping to pick 23.
 
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Okay, my comments were more in relation to what we really need. I honestly believe we are set when it comes to forward and defender and rucks. Perhaps another KPF, if one is there.

I can't see any 200 game dyed in the wool midfielders slipping to pick 23.

You speaking specifically about the 2017 draft? In general a reasonable number of decent mids get to the 3rd round+.
 

tiltraise

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Something that has me somewhat bemused is the high number of delistings at all clubs this year, in a year when the draft is said to be very shallow. Maybe the number has been just as high in years gone by and I haven't realised it but it all seems a bit odd in my opinion. In our case I was surprised at all of Gibbo, Fishy and LT getting delisted, given their replacements are going to be in the tail end of the draft or re-cycled from other clubs.

Granted some clubs such as Port Adelaide and Carlton have also traded in players, but the overall picture is in my eyes at least higher than normal.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings

Any ideas anyone on this?

This is a good observation and I think it says as much about the concept of FA and the depth of the 2018 pool than it does about this years crop.

I expect a number of teams to run with expanded rookie lists in 2017 thus expect to see plenty of passing in later rounds. This allows clubs the flexibility to put this years speculative later picks on 1 year deals whilst at the same time creating greater cap space allowing teams to be more able to compete with the likes of North in offers to elite talent as well as providing the option for a bigger intake from next years pool via increased primary list vacancies.
 
Apr 24, 2013
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You speaking specifically about the 2017 draft? In general a reasonable number of decent mids get to the 3rd round+.

This draft and in general a club needs to be lucky to get a 200 game mid after pick 20
 
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This is a good observation and I think it says as much about the concept of FA and the depth of the 2018 pool than it does about this years crop.

I expect a number of teams to run with expanded rookie lists in 2017 thus expect to see plenty of passing in later rounds. This allows clubs the flexibility to put this years speculative later picks on 1 year deals whilst at the same time creating greater cap space allowing teams to be more able to compete with the likes of North in offers to elite talent as well as providing the option for a bigger intake from next years pool via increased primary list vacancies.

A further possible reason, which I was not aware of until I heard it on SEN this afternoon, is that the rules have changed for players on the Rookie List next year. Those players no longer have to wait for a long term injury to enable them to be elevated but now can play seniors from round 1 if their form warrants it.

So my take is that clubs may have delisted a few more than normal, so as to have a look at what's available at the end of the main draft and then pick someone up as a rookie, who might be better suited to their needs, but without the need to have them on the main list and take up a spot they would rather use on a longer term project.

Time for it to be renamed the Supplementary List in my opinion.
 

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I can't see any 200 game dyed in the wool midfielders slipping to pick 23.

Off the top of my head gun mids taken later than that: Dayne Beams, Rory Sloane, Dane Swan.
 
Apr 24, 2013
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Off the top of my head gun mids taken later than that: Dayne Beams, Rory Sloane, Dane Swan.

Are we counting Hanneberry and Parker? Swallow?

Yes, but what are the statistical probabilities?

Let's say it's 10 players over the last 10 years, after pick 20.

Let's also guesstimate for arguments sake that 50 players have been take post pick 20, a season, over this 10 years.

This equates to a one in 50 chance, or 2%. Then we need to factor in 10 players amongst 18 competing clubs.

10/18= 0.56% x 2% = a 1.12% chance in any given season of landing a quality 200 game midfielder, post pick 20, in a draft.

Make it 20 players and double the odds to 2.25% if you like. It's certainly not something you would pin your drafting strategy upon.
 

MaddAdam

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Yes, but what are the statistical probabilities?

Let's say it's 10 players over the last 10 years, after pick 20.

Let's also guesstimate for arguments sake that 50 players have been take post pick 20, a season, over this 10 years.

This equates to a one in 50 chance, or 2%. Then we need to factor in 10 players amongst 18 competing clubs.

10/18= 0.56% x 2% = a 1.12% chance in any given season of landing a quality 200 game midfielder, post pick 20, in a draft.

Make it 20 players and double the odds to 2.25% if you like. It's certainly not something you would pin your drafting strategy upon.

OK, stuff it. Following players taken after pick 20 in the ten drafts prior to this. Have selected on basis that they play or have played as mids, and if they haven't yet played 200 games (the closer they get to this year, by definition the fewer games they can have played, so for those players I'm going on basis would they get a game in North's midfield):

2007: Scott Selwood, Jack Steven, Pearce Hanley. (3)

2008: David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Dan Hanneberry, Steven Motlop, Liam Shiels, Rory Sloane, Tom Rockliff, Ricky Henderson, Liam Picken, Luke Breust, Matthew Suckling. (11)

2009: Mitch Duncan, Taylor Duryea, Michael Barlow, Zach Tuohy (4)

2010: Luke Parker, Paul Seedsman, Luke Dalhaus, Jason Johanissen (4)

2011: Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale, Rory Laird, Mark Blicavs (4)

2012 : Jack Viney, Lachie Hunter (2)

2013: Matt Crouch, Zach Merrett, George Hewett, Riley Knight, Charlie Cameron (5)

2014: Jack Steele, Connor Blakely, Caleb Daniel, Kane Lambert, Conor McKenna (5)

2015: None (too early to tell?)

2016: Will Hayward, Brandan Parfitt. (2)

So every year there's a gun taken after 20, some years many.
 

tiltraise

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OK, stuff it. Following players taken after pick 20 in the ten drafts prior to this. Have selected on basis that they play or have played as mids, and if they haven't yet played 200 games (the closer they get to this year, by definition the fewer games they can have played, so for those players I'm going on basis would they get a game in North's midfield):

2007: Scott Selwood, Jack Steven, Pearce Hanley. (3)

2008: David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Dan Hanneberry, Steven Motlop, Liam Shiels, Rory Sloane, Tom Rockliff, Ricky Henderson, Liam Picken, Luke Breust, Matthew Suckling. (11)

2009: Mitch Duncan, Taylor Duryea, Michael Barlow, Zach Tuohy (4)

2010: Luke Parker, Paul Seedsman, Luke Dalhaus, Jason Johanissen (4)

2011: Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale, Rory Laird, Mark Blicavs (4)

2012 : Jack Viney, Lachie Hunter (2)

2013: Matt Crouch, Zach Merrett, George Hewett, Riley Knight, Charlie Cameron (5)

2014: Jack Steele, Connor Blakely, Caleb Daniel, Kane Lambert, Conor McKenna (5)

2015: None (too early to tell?)

2016: Will Hayward, Brandan Parfitt. (2)

So every year there's a gun taken after 20, some years many.

Viney & Hunter were F/S whilst Steele was an academy pick thus they dont really count.
 

MaddAdam

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Viney & Hunter were F/S whilst Steele was an academy pick thus they dont really count.

That's where they were bid on, do count.
 
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OK, stuff it. Following players taken after pick 20 in the ten drafts prior to this. Have selected on basis that they play or have played as mids, and if they haven't yet played 200 games (the closer they get to this year, by definition the fewer games they can have played, so for those players I'm going on basis would they get a game in North's midfield):

2007: Scott Selwood, Jack Steven, Pearce Hanley. (3)

2008: David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Dan Hanneberry, Steven Motlop, Liam Shiels, Rory Sloane, Tom Rockliff, Ricky Henderson, Liam Picken, Luke Breust, Matthew Suckling. (11)

2009: Mitch Duncan, Taylor Duryea, Michael Barlow, Zach Tuohy (4)

2010: Luke Parker, Paul Seedsman, Luke Dalhaus, Jason Johanissen (4)

2011: Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale, Rory Laird, Mark Blicavs (4)

2012 : Jack Viney, Lachie Hunter (2)

2013: Matt Crouch, Zach Merrett, George Hewett, Riley Knight, Charlie Cameron (5)

2014: Jack Steele, Connor Blakely, Caleb Daniel, Kane Lambert, Conor McKenna (5)

2015: None (too early to tell?)

2016: Will Hayward, Brandan Parfitt. (2)

So every year there's a gun taken after 20, some years many.

Interesting that Adelaide have 6 Footscray have 5 Sydney and Geelong have 4 Essendon, West Coast, Fremantle and Hawthorn have 3 each.

All teams that have contended over the past 5 - 10 years.

In fact 12 of the last 13 premiers are on that list apart from Richmond. Only 2 teams that have played in a Grand Final not on the list are Port and St Kilda
 
Apr 24, 2013
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OK, stuff it. Following players taken after pick 20 in the ten drafts prior to this. Have selected on basis that they play or have played as mids, and if they haven't yet played 200 games (the closer they get to this year, by definition the fewer games they can have played, so for those players I'm going on basis would they get a game in North's midfield):

This is flat out cheating and I have reported this post to the moderators.

A chimpanzee could currently get a game in our midfield. I stated 200 game quality midfielder for a reason.

2007: Scott Selwood, Jack Steven, Pearce Hanley. (3)
2008: David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Dan Hanneberry, Steven Motlop, Liam Shiels, Rory Sloane, Tom Rockliff, Ricky Henderson, Liam Picken, Luke Breust, Matthew Suckling. (11)
2009: Mitch Duncan, Taylor Duryea, Michael Barlow, Zach Tuohy (4)
2010: Luke Parker, Paul Seedsman, Luke Dalhaus, Jason Johanissen (4)
2011: Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale, Rory Laird, Mark Blicavs (4)
2012 : Jack Viney, Lachie Hunter (2)
2013: Matt Crouch, Zach Merrett, George Hewett, Riley Knight, Charlie Cameron (5)
2014: Jack Steele, Connor Blakely, Caleb Daniel, Kane Lambert, Conor McKenna (5)
2015: None (too early to tell?)
2016: Will Hayward, Brandan Parfitt. (2)

So every year there's a gun taken after 20, some years many.

Definitely some non midfielders and father sons in that group and a few suss ones that I left in.

I'll give you 25. Make that 2.8%. My point still stands.
 
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