Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[King Karl]

Carlton
Out: McKay, future second round pick
In: Shiel, GWS future second round pick

Pies
Out: Moore
In: McKay

Swans
Out: first pick
In: Moore

GWS
Out: Shiel, future Second round pick
In: Swans first pick, Carlton future second round pick

I guess the major stumbling block here would be GWS, they would get similar compensation in 2019 if he were to leave via free agency so basically they would be giving him away a year early for no net gain. The proposed deal could still work with Carlton instead banking the Swans pick. Obviously isolated Shiel is worth a lot more than pick 10-18 and a pick swap but the free agency factor needs to be considered.

Carlton - I suspect would be happy, get an A grade mid as well as keeping pick 1 (Lukosius).

Pies - get some salary cap relief as well as a replacement IF Moore decides to move on. May need something additional.

Swans - get the player they are rumoured to be after, pay a fair price.

Thoughts?

 

[Pea Nut]

Carlton
Out: McKay, future second round pick
In: Shiel, GWS future second round pick

Pies
Out: Moore
In: McKay

Swans
Out: first pick
In: Moore

GWS
Out: Shiel, future Second round pick
In: Swans first pick, Carlton future second round pick

I guess the major stumbling block here would be GWS, they would get similar compensation in 2019 if he were to leave via free agency so basically they would be giving him away a year early for no net gain. The proposed deal could still work with Carlton instead banking the Swans pick. Obviously isolated Shiel is worth a lot more than pick 10-18 and a pick swap but the free agency factor needs to be considered.

Carlton - I suspect would be happy, get an A grade mid as well as keeping pick 1 (Lukosius).

Pies - get some salary cap relief as well as a replacement IF Moore decides to move on. May need something additional.

Swans - get the player they are rumoured to be after, pay a fair price.

Thoughts?

You're embarrassing yourself. Firstly Carlton aren't suddenly giving up on McKay. And even if they were, they aren't going to net Shiel by trading him and a second round pick downgrade.

 

[King Karl]

You're embarrassing yourself. Firstly Carlton aren't suddenly giving up on McKay. And even if they were, they aren't going to net Shiel by trading him and a second round pick downgrade.

So what parts/trades don’t you agree with? What do you think Shiel’s worth is this trade period, considering clubs can get him as a FA in 2019?

I’m just not sure if having Charlie Curnow, McKay and Lukosius all on the one list is that wise with the way the modern game is played. If Lukosius is as good as people say he is, Carlton can’t afford to pass him up..so something has to give.

 

[Peel67skin]

So what parts don’t you agree with? I’m just not sure if having Charlie Curnow, McKay and Lukosius all on the one list is that wise with the way the modern game is played. If Lukosius is as good as people say he is, Carlton can’t afford to pass him up..so something has to give.

I think Shiel part he don't agree with , a proven best 22 is no way a mid first round pick and with Shiel playing for Carlton , Carlton future 2nd also not looking good for GWS . If you take Shiel trade out of it ,then it definitely look better .

 

[Pea Nut]

So what parts/trades don’t you agree with? What do you think Shiel’s worth is this trade period, considering clubs can get him as a FA in 2019?

I’m just not sure if having Charlie Curnow, McKay and Lukosius all on the one list is that wise with the way the modern game is played. If Lukosius is as good as people say he is, Carlton can’t afford to pass him up..so something has to give.

I guess that's a fair enough line of thought. Walsh is still a realistic pick 1 prospect though. Dangerfield can't kick real well either. Looking back, would you have forgone Kruezer to take Danger at number 1 in 2007 ??

 

[King Karl]

I think Shiel part he don't agree with , a proven best 22 is no way a mid first round pick and with Shiel playing for Carlton , Carlton future 2nd also not looking good for GWS . If you take Shiel trade out of it ,then it definitely look better .

Yep I tend to agree. If there was no free agency, Shiel would be worth a top 3 pick, probably more. The whole free agency factor makes his value intriguing. Rival clubs won’t over pay as they can get him through free agency the following year but GWS would demand a lot more. There has to be a middle ground..somewhere.

 

[Peel67skin]

Yep I tend to agree. If there was no free agency, Shiel would be worth a top 3 pick, probably more. The whole free agency factor makes his value intriguing. Rival clubs won’t over pay as they can get him through free agency the following year but GWS would demand a lot more. There has to be a middle ground..somewhere.

That is following year stuff , GWS midfield very much depend on him right now , if they could get a year out of him they will , they rather have one last chance next year for flag with Kelly , Shiel ,cognilio and take combo pick next year than an unknown sydney first round pick that potentially weaker their chances.

 

[King Karl]

That is following year stuff , GWS midfield very much depend on him right now , if they could get a year out of him they will , they rather have one last chance next year for flag with Kelly , Shiel ,cognilio and take combo pick next year than an unknown sydney first round pick that potentially weaker their chances.

I completely agree. So for the Shiel trade to go down, the offer would need to be better than the compo they would receive the following year but not too much as rivals will point to 2019 FA eligibility. Intriguing.

The Shiel part was included as it has been heavily rumoured on our board that this is definitely Shiel’s last GWS contract, with a strong chance he will try and get home this trade period.

 

[Peel67skin]

I completely agree. So for the Shiel trade to go down, the offer would need to be better than the compo they would receive the following year but not too much as rivals will point to 2019 FA eligibility. Intriguing.

The Shiel part was included as it has been heavily rumoured on our board that this is definitely Shiel’s last GWS contract, with a strong chance he will try and get home this trade period.

I get where you at with all this rumours from your board , but if you are Shiel with a year left and potentially a bigger contract as free agent (any other victoria club) next year will you wait a year having one last chance for flag or go to a bottom three club a year earlier.

 

[King Karl]

I get where you at with all this rumours from your board , but if you are Shiel with a year left and potentially a bigger contract as free agent (any other victoria club) next year will you wait a year having one last chance for flag or go to a bottom three club a year earlier.

I completely agree with you. This is the hypothetical thread.


If we were to remove the Shiel element, we are left with this.
Carlton
Out: McKay
In: Swans first pick

Pies
Out: Moore
In: McKay

Swans
Out: first pick
In: Moore

I think Pies fans would feel aggrieved because of the Father - Son sentiment, however statistically if you compare the games Moore played forward they are quiet similar.

 

[citizen-erased]

Carlton
Out: McKay, future second round pick
In: Shiel, GWS future second round pick

Pies
Out: Moore
In: McKay

Swans
Out: first pick
In: Moore

GWS
Out: Shiel, future Second round pick
In: Swans first pick, Carlton future second round pick

I guess the major stumbling block here would be GWS, they would get similar compensation in 2019 if he were to leave via free agency so basically they would be giving him away a year early for no net gain. The proposed deal could still work with Carlton instead banking the Swans pick. Obviously isolated Shiel is worth a lot more than pick 10-18 and a pick swap but the free agency factor needs to be considered.

Carlton - I suspect would be happy, get an A grade mid as well as keeping pick 1 (Lukosius).

Pies - get some salary cap relief as well as a replacement IF Moore decides to move on. May need something additional.

Swans - get the player they are rumoured to be after, pay a fair price.

Thoughts?

you would need to give up more than McKay to make that deal work.
If anything, Pick 1 & 19 for Shiel is where it would land.

And Collingwood aren't losing Moore for McKay.

McKay is not worth a 1st rd pick. He's still a gamble at this stage. And this looks to be a good draft.

 

[King Karl]

you would need to give up more than McKay to make that deal work.
If anything, Pick 1 & 19 for Shiel is where it would land.

And Collingwood aren't losing Moore for McKay.

McKay is not worth a 1st rd pick. He's still a gamble at this stage. And this looks to be a good draft.

1 and 19 for Shiel when he is a Free Agent next year?? I would probably give up pick 1 for him if FA didn’t exist, but that sort of price when he would cost nothing the following year doesn’t make sense.

Also IF Moore was to leave it sounds like he would be the instigator. So getting McKay would be the secondary stage and not primary to the initial trade.

Moore’s market value would be higher than McKay’s at this stage, I’m not sure by how much though. McKay has kicked 15 goals in his 8 games in the worst side in the competition - a decent start to a career.

 

[Carl]

I completely agree with you. This is the hypothetical thread.


If we were to remove the Shiel element, we are left with this.
Carlton
Out: McKay
In: Swans first pick

Pies
Out: Moore
In: McKay

Swans
Out: first pick
In: Moore

I think Pies fans would feel aggrieved because of the Father - Son sentiment, however statistically if you compare the games Moore played forward they are quiet similar.

Why the hell are we trading McKay? Forget the idea, complete nonsense. You will be lucky to get 5% of Carlton fans to agree with you.

 

[King Karl]

Why the hell are we trading McKay? Forget the idea, complete nonsense. You will be lucky to get 5% of Carlton fans to agree with you.

Was just a hypothetical if we planned on drafting Lukosius. Can we fit Charlie, Lukosius and McKay all in the one side? Do we pass on this ‘once in a generation forward’? Personally, I hope we finish second last and get to keep McKay and draft a midfielder.

 

[newblueo]

1 and 19 for Shiel when he is a Free Agent next year?? I would probably give up pick 1 for him if FA didn’t exist, but that sort of price when he would cost nothing the following year doesn’t make sense.

same logic can be made that cripps is only signed till 2019 so carlton should trade him now. .

 

[Turbocat]

1 and 19 for Shiel when he is a Free Agent next year?? I would probably give up pick 1 for him if FA didn’t exist, but that sort of price when he would cost nothing the following year doesn’t make sense.

Also IF Moore was to leave it sounds like he would be the instigator. So getting McKay would be the secondary stage and not primary to the initial trade.

Moore’s market value would be higher than McKay’s at this stage, I’m not sure by how much though. McKay has kicked 15 goals in his 8 games in the worst side in the competition - a decent start to a career.

RFA.. which sort of means he is probably 3 years away from FA.

 

[King Karl]

same logic can be made that cripps is only signed till 2019 so carlton should trade him now. .

Except Cripps will not be a free agent, he will just be out of contract. Massive difference.

 

[King Karl]

RFA.. which sort of means he is probably 3 years away from FA.

Interesting point. Feel salary cap will be an issue at GWS with Shiel, Kelly and Coniglio all out of contract at the end of 2019. They may not be in a position to match rival offers, effectively making him an UFA.

 

[Turbocat]

Interesting point. Feel salary cap will be an issue at GWS with Shiel, Kelly and Coniglio all out of contract at the end of 2019. They may not be in a position to match rival offers, effectively making him an UFA.

Perhaps.. it will depend on your offer as I'm sure they would be one very good money now.

 

[Shaz2012]

Hypothetical. Suns lose all their remaining games (likely). Carlton win one game in addition to beating the Suns (not likely). Suns let Lynch leave as a FA (likely if they finish bottom). Suns then have picks 1 & 2 in the draft.

I think they will be willing to trade one of those picks for an established player like they did with Weller. Who would be willing to go to the Suns that is worth pick 1 or 2? And will the Suns definitely take Luko, or will they go for Smith or Walsh with the other pick?

 

[newblueo]

Except Cripps will not be a free agent, he will just be out of contract. Massive difference.

umm well no. going by your post you feel gws should trade to get best value. if cripps is going in 2019 should carlton not trade him now?

 

[King Karl]

umm well no. going by your post you feel gws should trade to get best value. if cripps is going in 2019 should carlton not trade him now?

Can you not see the difference between an out or contract player and a free agent? Free agency compo is linked to your ladder position. E.g hawks only received pick 19 for Franklin. If Cripps were to leave in 2019 the AFL would not be deciding our compo, and it would not be linked to our ladder position. The market would decide.

 

[newblueo]

Can you not see the difference between an out or contract player and a free agent? Free agency compo is linked to your ladder position. E.g hawks only received pick 19 for Franklin. If Cripps were to leave in 2019 the AFL would not be deciding our compo, and it would not be linked to our ladder position. The market would decide.

how many clubs have traded a player out early because they were scared of free agency? a year early? best player to

no club is that nuts

 

[King Karl]

how many clubs have traded a player out early because they were scared of free agency? a year early? best player to

no club is that nuts

Carlton with Gibbs. Traded him with two years to go on a contract instead of losing him for free agency compo.

Obviously for it to happen the offer has to be substationaly better than what the club will receive in FA compo. That’s what makes these hypotheticals...

 

[kreglze]

Hypothetical. Suns lose all their remaining games (likely). Carlton win one game in addition to beating the Suns (not likely). Suns let Lynch leave as a FA (likely if they finish bottom). Suns then have picks 1 & 2 in the draft.

I think they will be willing to trade one of those picks for an established player like they did with Weller. Who would be willing to go to the Suns that is worth pick 1 or 2? And will the Suns definitely take Luko, or will they go for Smith or Walsh with the other pick?

IF that was to happen and we have 1 & 2. I would want to use both. No one worth pick 1 or 2 would want to come up to QLD at the moment. We would probably look to trade WC 1st pick we have for a good player who can rotate through the midfield. I can see us pretty much only taking the elite talent, and then filling lower list spots/rookies with locals from the Academy.