Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[King Karl]

Hypothetical. Suns lose all their remaining games (likely). Carlton win one game in addition to beating the Suns (not likely). Suns let Lynch leave as a FA (likely if they finish bottom). Suns then have picks 1 & 2 in the draft.

I think they will be willing to trade one of those picks for an established player like they did with Weller. Who would be willing to go to the Suns that is worth pick 1 or 2? And will the Suns definitely take Luko, or will they go for Smith or Walsh with the other pick?

How badly would the Crows want Lukosius? Crows could hypothetically have picks 10 and 11 (dees pick). Maybe a trade could be worked out with GC where you receive pick 2 and agree that GC will not take Lukosius at 1 in exchange for 10 and 11 (plus a sweetener). In a reportedly deep draft, would 3 picks in the top 11 be more valuable than the top 2 picks? I don’t think GC would trade pick 1, there’s too much marketing equity attached with it.

Gold Coast go to the draft with 1,10,11 + a sweetener or go with 1 and 2.

 

[Shaz2012]

IF that was to happen and we have 1 & 2. I would want to use both. No one worth pick 1 or 2 would want to come up to QLD at the moment. We would probably look to trade WC 1st pick we have for a good player who can rotate through the midfield. I can see us pretty much only taking the elite talent, and then filling lower list spots/rookies with locals from the Academy.

I seriously agree with you. You need to go back to the draft board (no pun intended). But do your fans and the AFL have the patience for that? I don’t understand why you picked up Weller with 2. That’s why I am thinking you will do the same if you can.

 

[Shaz2012]

How badly would the Crows want Lukosius? Crows could hypothetically have picks 10 and 11 (dees pick). Maybe a trade could be worked out with GC where you receive pick 2 and agree that GC will not take Lukosius at 1 in exchange for 10 and 11 (plus a sweetener). In a reportedly deep draft, would 3 picks in the top 11 be more valuable than the top 2 picks? I don’t think GC would trade pick 1, there’s too much marketing equity attached with it.

Gold Coast go to the draft with 1,10,11 + a sweetener or go with 1 and 2.

If it was reasonable I think we would do that. It depends on what picks we have and who we would be giving up. Just as it would benefit Suns to have two more top 10 picks on their list, don’t forget how much it would benefit us. We are losing a hell of a lot of quality players in the next 3-4 years.

 

[Peel67skin]

I seriously agree with you. You need to go back to the draft board (no pun intended). But do your fans and the AFL have the patience for that? I don’t understand why you picked up Weller with 2. That’s why I am thinking you will do the same if you can.

Why Weller with 2 ?
1) From GC academy - marketing purpose
2) Get a steak knife in Ballard - low draft pick high reward from SA and not Victoria ( already extended to 2021 contract)
3) one less player to worried when players contract end in 2019 ( Wright , Jack Martin, Miller , Swallow , Callum Ah Chee,May)
4 ) You might ask then why now keep pick 1 and 2 this year ?
Answer : New draftees will signed 2 year initial contract until 2020 and create a gap for list manager to negotiate contract extension for the above players .

 

[HumanMeatball]

What I find most interesting is if say lynch nominated Richmond, do they take pick say 4 conpo or match and force a trade

 

[Turbocat]

IF that was to happen and we have 1 & 2. I would want to use both. No one worth pick 1 or 2 would want to come up to QLD at the moment. We would probably look to trade WC 1st pick we have for a good player who can rotate through the midfield. I can see us pretty much only taking the elite talent, and then filling lower list spots/rookies with locals from the Academy.

Thats fair enough K ... but if you ended up with 1 and 2 it would give you a huge opportunity to add not just two but several elite players..if you traded one of the picks. I guess it depends on your assessment of needs.

 

[Shaz2012]

Why Weller with 2 ?
1) From GC academy - marketing purpose
2) Get a steak knife in Ballard - low draft pick high reward from SA and not Victoria ( already extended to 2021 contract)
3) one less player to worried when players contract end in 2019 ( Wright , Jack Martin, Miller , Swallow , Callum Ah Chee,May)
4 ) You might ask then why now keep pick 1 and 2 this year ?
Answer : New draftees will signed 2 year initial contract until 2020 and create a gap for list manager to negotiate contract extension for the above players .

Ok, but you gave up a chance of an elite A grader. You still need to build a list. I personally think you should go to the draft. Carlton managed to pull off sucking by convincing the media about their never ending rebuild. The Suns need to do the same, but not sure if they have that luxury. They may not survive long enough to exist if they go down the Carlton path. It’s not fair, but your failures will never be equal to Carlton’s. The smart move is probably the draft, but to survive being dumped from the comp you probably need to convince a few more Wellers to join you. Just my opinion.

 

[Shaz2012]

Thats fair enough K ... but if you ended up with 1 and 2 it would give you a huge opportunity to add not just two but several elite players..if you traded one of the picks. I guess it depends on your assessment of needs.

As he said though, which elite players would go there. As for trading down, they have a pretty good draft hand already. They don’t need more picks. They need quality. I would be doing my due diligence on the least flight risk players and taking the best 2. Probably Luko and Walsh.

 

[Bearded Clam]

What I find most interesting is if say lynch nominated Richmond, do they take pick say 4 conpo or match and force a trade

If they match and force a trade the tigers will be in all sorts of salary cap pain in the years to come!..

 

[HumanMeatball]

If they match and force a trade the tigers will be in all sorts of salary cap pain in the years to come!..

Wouldn’t have thought it would make a difference Friend

 

[Taylor]

If they match and force a trade the tigers will be in all sorts of salary cap pain in the years to come!..

I can't imagine they would be, Gold Coast will want some of their established talent and their cap space will be a bit aided by that.

 

[Shaz2012]

I can't imagine they would be, Gold Coast will want some of their established talent and their cap space will be a bit aided by that.

It’s easy enough to fantasy trade Richmond players to the Gold Coast. I would love to be a fly on the wall when they tell those players they are moving from Melbourne to the Gold Coast.

 

[Taylor]

It’s easy enough to fantasy trade Richmond players to the Gold Coast. I would love to be a fly on the wall when they tell those players they are moving from Melbourne to the Gold Coast.

We know it doesn't work that way.

Gold Coast indicates which players it would be interested in and then contacts their managers, offers them $300,000 a year more than they are on now and waits to hear if it's enough.

 

[kreglze]

I seriously agree with you. You need to go back to the draft board (no pun intended). But do your fans and the AFL have the patience for that? I don’t understand why you picked up Weller with 2. That’s why I am thinking you will do the same if you can.

Weller is still only 21. He has a lot of room to grow and should play 200 games for us easily. Had his best game for us of the season this past weekend with 26 touches rotating through the guts.

Ballard who we also got out of that pick 2 trade has had a good middle part of the season playing off the HB. Looks like he could turn into a quality player and has signed with us till 2021.

It was a awful trade, no doubt about it. But there seems to be some at least some good coming out of it.

 

[Shaz2012]

We know it doesn't work that way.

Gold Coast indicates which players it would be interested in and then contacts their managers, offers them $300,000 a year more than they are on now and waits to hear if it's enough.

If it were that easy both our clubs would have long histories of Victorians coming over to play for us. Victorians are the softest creatures on the planet. You get the worlds best soccer players spending their careers in shit holes like Manchester and Liverpool. Yet these private school Melbourne boys get PTSD for the three or four games a year they have to play outside Victoria.

 

[Charlie Pannam]

If they match and force a trade the tigers will be in all sorts of salary cap pain in the years to come!..

No additional salary cap pain involved just a loss of picks/players if it gets down to a trade.
Reckon it’s odds on that GC will be happy with the compensation they receive via FA considering a bottom 3 finish is likely

 

[Peel67skin]

If it were that easy both our clubs would have long histories of Victorians coming over to play for us. Victorians are the softest creatures on the planet. You get the worlds best soccer players spending their careers in shit holes like Manchester and Liverpool. Yet these private school Melbourne boys get PTSD for the three or four games a year they have to play outside Victoria.

Care to elaborate what is PTSD ?

 

[Bearded Clam]

No additional salary cap pain involved just a loss of picks/players if it gets down to a trade.
Reckon it’s odds on that GC will be happy with the compensation they receive via FA considering a bottom 3 finish is likely

You’d think so... but I think if lynch goes this year and they spend yet another year or two spudding it up in the bottom 4 it will just about be nightly night for them as a club..

The Gold Coast is an absolute graveyard for footy/league clubs, it’s hard enough for them to survive and keep supporters interested when things are going alright and near impossible when the team is wallowing in the bottom 4 year after year.. look at the titans league club... it’s been pretty good but it’s on the verge of collapse, it can’t get people to come to games even when they give the tickets away and they’re talking about moving the club up to Redcliff in Brisbane.

I think they will definately match whatever any other team offers plus more and they’ll want to hold on to him at all costs.. and if it doesn’t work out they’ll definately ask for one or two firsts and a couple of established players off the club in return.

When you really think about it.... What’s picks 1 & 2 gonna net them?... Lukosius and Walsh?... that’s not gonna help get them up near the 8 in the next year or two!.. they need some established players right away.....

and Adelaide will be cheering if Lukosius goes to the suns... they’ll be in his ear from the very moment the suns draft him telling him they’ll get him home the very second he gets sick of playing/living away from his mates and family for a team of no hopers... so the cycle will just begin again.. And Victorian teams will do the same to Walsh..

 

[Peel67skin]

You’d think so... but I think if lynch goes this year and they spend yet another year or two spudding it up in the bottom 4 it will just about be nightly night for them as a club..

The Gold Coast is an absolute graveyard for footy/league clubs, it’s hard enough for them to survive and keep supporters interested when things are going alright and near impossible when the team is wallowing in the bottom 4 year after year.. look at the titans league club... it’s been pretty good but it’s on the verge of collapse, it can’t get people to come to games even when they give the tickets away and they’re talking about moving the club up to Redcliff in Brisbane.

I think they will definately match whatever any other team offers plus more and they’ll want to hold on to him at all costs.. and if it doesn’t work out they’ll definately ask for one or two firsts and a couple of established players off the club in return.

When you really think about it.... What’s picks 1 & 2 gonna net them?... Lukosius and Walsh?... that’s not gonna help get them up near the 8 in the next year or two!.. they need some established players right away.....

and Adelaide will be cheering if Lukosius goes to the suns... they’ll be in his ear from the very moment the suns draft him telling him they’ll get him home the very second he gets sick of playing/living away from his mates and family for a team of no hopers... so the cycle will just begin again.. And Victorian teams will do the same to Walsh..

Do be honest I prefer Adelaide /Port to do that , I mean GC can ask for two or three Lyons established player type not getting enough money with adelaide and draft pick in return ,Walsh will be the same . Future nobody know , look at your club sabotage your own team well-being with collective mind after reaching GF last year .

 

[Pea Nut]

Care to elaborate what is PTSD ?

Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. And he was being facetious.

 

[Pea Nut]

The Gold Coast is an absolute graveyard for footy/league clubs

That's not entirely true. Southport Sharks has always been one of the biggest state league clubs, and have always been very strong. At QAFL level, Palm Beach, Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise and Labrador have always been strong clubs. Football on the coast has always been strong at the lower levels. As soon as the Suns start winning games of footy and become a contender Metricon will be sold out every week. I guarantee it. Qld'ers are just bandwagoner supporters and will only turn out to see games if that team is winning.

 

[Bearded Clam]

That's not entirely true. Southport Sharks is one of the biggest NEAFL clubs, and have always been very strong playing in the state league. At QAFL level, Palm Beach, Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise and Labrador have always been strong clubs. Football on the coast has always been strong at the lower levels. As soon as the Suns start winning games of footy and become a contender Metricon will be sold out every week. I guarantee it. Qld'ers are just bandwagoner supporters and will only turn out to see games if that team is winning.

Apologies, I should’ve written that I was talking about Gold Coast teams in semi national/ national comps... I was actually gonna write that for clarification but didn’t..

You’re right too.. the local competition isn’t too bad..

 

[Pea Nut]

Apologies, I should’ve written that I was talking about Gold Coast teams in semi national/ national comps... I was actually gonna write that for clarification but didn’t..

You’re right too.. the local competition isn’t too bad..

I think it's also worth mentioning that if the Suns had seen the success that GWS has they would have a much bigger following and would have a lot more people showing up to games than what GWS get. Yet no one really ever brings up that the GWS experiment should be under the microscope. It's always the Suns under the pump because they haven't managed to push towards being a finals and top 4 contender.

 

[Bearded Clam]

I think it's also worth mentioning that if the Suns had seen the success that GWS has they would have a much bigger following and would have a lot more people showing up to games than what GWS get. Yet no one really ever brings up that the GWS experiment should be under the microscope. It's always the Suns under the pump because they haven't managed to push towards being a finals and top 4 contender.

Yep.. agree.

The suns are the first national AFL side based on the Gold Coast.. whether they do survive long term obviously remains to be seen..

Rugby League has tried for decades with the seagulls, chargers, giants and gladiators all failing to become long term established teams over the past few decades... and like I said earlier the Titans are looking shaky.

Then in the soccer there’s been a failed A-league club in recent years.

Gold coasters are a bit fickle when it comes to supporting local teams in national comps.

 

[Obeanie1]

If they match and force a trade the tigers will be in all sorts of salary cap pain in the years to come!..

Why?

If the Tigers were forced to trade they would need to move a half decent player or two to get picks to satisfy the trade and doing so free up cap space.