Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[Virgin Dog]

1: Freo trade Neale and a 2nd Rounder to Lions for Pick 4.

2: Freo give Pick 4 and Pick 3 [Edit. not Pick 3... Pick 5?] to Demons for Hogan and their 1st Pick


Lions get: Neale and Freo's 2nd rounder.... lose pick 4

Freo get: Hogan and First Pick from MFC, Lose pick 3 and 4

MFC get pick 3 and 4, lose Hogan and their 1st pick.

Freo getting shafted hard in that situation. Neale is worth more than pick 4 alone

 

[Luv_our_club]

Freo getting shafted hard in that situation. Neale is worth more than pick 4 alone

I agree they probably come last on that deal. I guess it would come down to how much you rate Hogan and how much Freo want him.

 

[Turbocat]

Great effort mate. Trade would rely on Cats I feel, Kelly would have to walk into Scott's office and say "I just cant do it here anymore" otherwise they arent trading him for fair value and i think 14 is fair.

Crows would do that, from everything I've read, Rankine's desire to stay in Adelaide and the strength of the rest of the top 6 is strong enough for him to tank some draft interviews and get through to 4 almost guaranteed.

I think its a no-brainer for Lions and a good deal for Freo. Kelly doesnt have the runs on the board Neale does but he'll pick up a lot of the slack and getting pick 7 means we get Hately or Rozee.

All-in-all, I think the best proposal on here yet (and bonus points for getting a 4-team trade to work). As Cats supporters have said though, they would be the sticking point

If you think 14 for Kelly is fair .. then you must owe some serious coin to Gold Coast.. as I think they over paid by a fair whack

14 is good ..and once it may have gotten the deal done , certainly not long ago id have said yes... but now its no where near enough to turn our heads.. the only thing that this whole deal revolves around is his want and desire to return home and Geelong just melting like butter under the heat of trade threat ..and if he did the walk in that you described .. Im not sure what they would do as the have put a pretty solid peg in the ground. It would damage the side for 2019 for a debatable long term gain.

I think they would have to add to it ... whether its 2019 pick or a player etc. im not sure.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

If you think 14 for Kelly is fair .. then you must owe some serious coin to Gold Coast.. as I think they over paid by a fair whack

14 is good ..and once it may have gotten the deal done , certainly not long ago id have said yes... but now its no where near enough to turn our heads.. the only thing that this whole deal revolves around is his want and desire to return home and Geelong just melting like butter under the heat of trade threat ..and if he did the walk in that you described .. Im not sure what they would do as the have put a pretty solid peg in the ground. It would damage the side for 2019 for a debatable long term gain.

I think they would have to add to it ... whether its 2019 pick or a player etc. im not sure.

He isn’t a RFA but Geelong traded what 9, 28 and Gore for Danger. So I think 14 and a token pick/player is fair enough.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I agree they probably come last on that deal. I guess it would come down to how much you rate Hogan and how much Freo want him.

Yeah, picking up Hogan would be the dream for them, it's just the Neale trade isolated is not enough for them. Could easily be asking for a second rounder coming their way along with pick 4.
I do love these speculative 3 way trades, some real creative win-win-win situations can come up sometimes

 

[Prochard123]

Darcy Moore for Jacob Weitering

Moore clearly more upside and has shown signs of excellence, whereas Weitering pretty has been mediocre this entire time...

However a player that can't get onto the park is useless, aka Moore

 

[Dez!]

Darcy Moore for Jacob Weitering

Moore clearly more upside and has shown signs of excellence, whereas Weitering pretty has been mediocre this entire time...

However a player that can't get onto the park is useless, aka Moore

No on both Moore having "clearly more upside" and "has shown signs of excellence".

Give me Weitering 10 times out of 10.

 

[Jeremias]

Darcy Moore for Jacob Weitering

Why on earth would Carlton do this?

 

[Mego Red]

Lions out- pick 4 and 2nd rounder 2019. In- Lachie Neale.
Dockers out- Lachie Neale. In- pick 4 and Lions 2nd rounder 2019.
Dockers in- Crows picks 7 and 14. Crows in- Dockers pick 4(from Lions).
Dockers in- Tim Kelly. Cats in- pick 14(from Crows).

Net result-
Lions- In- Lachie Neale. Out- pick 4 & 2019 2nd rounder.
Dockers- In- pick 7 and Tim Kelly. Out- Lachie Neale.
Cats- In- pick 14. Out- Tim Kelly.
Crows- In- pick 4. Out- picks 7 & 14.

Lions get the inside grunt they need, Dockers get a ready made player and a very good draft selection, Cats get a mid first rounder for a homesick Kelly and the Crows get a shot at Rankine if the mail is a King twin or 2 go early.

I may have confused myself there, is that right? IMO the Dockers win that trade.

The Crows would do 11 and 14 for 4, but they wouldn't give up 7 unless something else came back.

I think they'd rather try and get pick 2, and keep some option to live trade for Rankine. He will start to drift back in the draft after the combine and interviews.

 

[Phat Toni]

I do not think Collingwood would do that.

Let me restate, Collingwood won't do that

why not? Carlise is better than Moore.

I can't see why the Saints would do that.... they just flicked a young key back in Goddard and with that trade are essentially trading a top end intercepting CHB for a well used Hanneberry

 

[Jell]

The Crows would do 11 and 14 for 4, but they wouldn't give up 7 unless something else came back.

I think they'd rather try and get pick 2, and keep some option to live trade for Rankine. He will start to drift back in the draft after the combine and interviews.

No team will give up a top 4 pick for 11 and 14, at least not in this draft.

 

[Saintsman14]

No.

Counter offer.

Jack Steven and Saints 2019 first round pick for Lions 2018 first round pick straight up. No Lions player included.


And, out of curiosity, who are you (Saints fans) looking at with picks 4 & 5?

Not my place, but I'm not giving up Jack Steven for at least two years if our position doesn't improve, side note do you want Armitage

 

[Saintsman14]

Collingwood’s first round pick for Jack Billings

Sold

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

The Crows would do 11 and 14 for 4, but they wouldn't give up 7 unless something else came back.

I think they'd rather try and get pick 2, and keep some option to live trade for Rankine. He will start to drift back in the draft after the combine and interviews.

Here we go, another thinking he is going to screw up interviews to slide to you're club.. wow

 

[Snake_Baker]

Gaff
Polec for 2018/2019 2nd round picks
Hall for a swap of 2019 3rd & 2nd round swap
Kelly for Preuss + 2018/2019 1st round picks, Shiel stays.

 

[Dom PC]

Neale and 2019 3rd rd pick >> Brisbane

Pick 5, pick 23 and 2019 2nd rd pick >> Freo

I think pick 5 and 23 for Neale is more than fair. But the 3rd rd pick up grade for next year is the sweetener to get the deal done.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Neale and 2019 3rd rd pick >> Brisbane

Pick 5, pick 23 and 2019 2nd rd pick >> Freo

I think pick 5 and 23 for Neale is more than fair. But the 3rd rd pick up grade for next year is the sweetener to get the deal done.

5 & 23 alone is fair value.

 

[Bonz]

Hi everyone,

Have been thinking of a way that Adelaide could trade in the first selection this year.

Was wondering on thoughts on the below trade?

Adelaide - 2018 Pick 8, McGovern, 2019 First Round
Carlton - 2018 Pick 1, 2019 Second Round.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Neale and 2019 3rd rd pick >> Brisbane

Pick 5, pick 23 and 2019 2nd rd pick >> Freo

I think pick 5 and 23 for Neale is more than fair. But the 3rd rd pick up grade for next year is the sweetener to get the deal done.

I think this is an offer Freo can't really refuse. Gives them 2 picks inside the top 6 (accounting for Lynch compo), lets their guy pursue a bigger contract at his destination of choice, and they are not letting him go for too little.

An early first rounder is not enough, but adding the pick 23 would probably be enough to get it done. As you said though, the sweetener may be required, and I could definitely see this trade happening if a deal eventuates

 

[rezagun]

Freo could actually do well by trading out Neale imo.

Freo trade Neale to Bris
Bris trade picks 4 and 22 to Freo.

Freo trade pick 5 to Adl
Adl trade Mcgovern and pick 19 to Freo.

Freo trade pick 4 and 19 to Melb
Melb trade Hogan to Freo.

Freo get Mcgovern, Hogan and pick 22.
Freo lose pick 5 and Neale.
Adl get pick 5
Adl lose Mcgovern and pick 19.
Melbourne get picks 4 and 19
Melbourne lose Hogan.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Hi everyone,

Have been thinking of a way that Adelaide could trade in the first selection this year.

Was wondering on thoughts on the below trade?

Adelaide - 2018 Pick 8, McGovern, 2019 First Round
Carlton - 2018 Pick 1, 2019 Second Round.

Adelaide fans on BF have been severely overrating McGovern's value, but he is definitely worth a first rounder, I'd argue somewhere around 10-15. Assuming their first round pick next year is something like pick 13, and that Carlton again win the spoon, this means the trade would look something like:

Carlton send Pick 1 (3,000) + 2019 Pick 19 (948)

Adelaide send Pick 8 (1,551) + 2019 Pick 13 (1,212) + McGovern

This values McGovern at roughly Pick 14, which is probably about right. TBH, I would expect Adelaide to try get more out of this deal though, especially considering he is contracted. Adelaide would probably try send their 2019 second rounder instead of first, which looks like:

Adelaide send Pick 8 (1,551) + 2019 Pick 31 (606) + McGovern

This values McGovern at around Pick 6, which is also not outside the realm of possibility. Perhaps a little bit too much, but since Carlton hardballed with Gibbs, I'd expect Adelaide to do the same to Carlton. Although Carlton may have the upper hand here, considering they are the ones holding Pick 1

 

[Virgin Dog]

Freo could actually do well by trading out Neale imo.

Freo trade Neale to Bris
Bris trade picks 4 and 22 to Freo.

Freo trade pick 5 to Adl
Adl trade Mcgovern and pick 19 to Freo.

Freo trade pick 4 and 19 to Melb
Melb trade Hogan to Freo.

Freo get Mcgovern, Hogan and pick 22.
Freo lose pick 5 and Neale.
Adl get pick 5
Adl lose Mcgovern and pick 19.
Melbourne get picks 4 and 19
Melbourne lose Hogan.

Seems relatively fair, only issue I see is that Adelaide may not be satisfied with Pick 5. Once Lynch compo comes in, that becomes Pick 6, and I would be very surprised if either of the two SA boys are still available there. Lukosius is almost certainly going at Pick 1 or 2, while there's no way Rankine makes it past Saints' pick unless he has serious attitude issues or intentionally ****ed his interviews (Wingard).

They'd be gunning for one of Gold Coast's picks I'd think, including an agreement for Gold Coast not to take Rankine. I'm sure Gold Coast would consider swapping Pick 3 for two first rounders

 

[philthy05]

Freo could actually do well by trading out Neale imo.

Freo trade Neale to Bris
Bris trade picks 4 and 22 to Freo.

Freo trade pick 5 to Adl
Adl trade Mcgovern and pick 19 to Freo.

Freo trade pick 4 and 19 to Melb
Melb trade Hogan to Freo.

Freo get Mcgovern, Hogan and pick 22.
Freo lose pick 5 and Neale.
Adl get pick 5
Adl lose Mcgovern and pick 19.
Melbourne get picks 4 and 19
Melbourne lose Hogan.

How have they not run out of kool-aid at west lakes?

McGovern worth a top 5 pick in every single one of your eyes. He is 24 years old.

To give you an idea he is statistically similar to Jesse whites last 3 years with Collingwood who was widely criticised for being an average to poor player.

Lol

 

[Taylor]

The only way that the points system works if with the academies using it on players nobody else can get.

Look at it this way, if you've got the first three picks in the draft (7751) you could sell them all for picks #19 to #28 and pick #41. Eleven picks - what a great addition to your squad. A quarter will be top thirty picks. The problem?

You can only put 22 on the ground each week, the game will be decided by the quality of those 22 and you're far more likely to get a quality player the higher up the draft your pick is. You need players who will win key moments and the guys who have the elite kicks, the speed, the marking power, the creativity, the ability to read the play, the workrate and the running power aren't picked up late in the draft. There might not even be a single one in the draft each year.

Pick #1 shouldn't be traded.

 

[Carl]

Hi everyone,

Have been thinking of a way that Adelaide could trade in the first selection this year.

Was wondering on thoughts on the below trade?

Adelaide - 2018 Pick 8, McGovern, 2019 First Round
Carlton - 2018 Pick 1, 2019 Second Round.

Starts with N ends in O.