Mega Thread 2018 Trade Period Discussion part 2! (cont. in Part 3 - link in OP)

[Crow till I die]

No way on God's green earth Rankine gets past port at 5.

They just lost their franchise player.

They want to replace him immediately with an excitement machine who will bring fans through the gates.

That's Rankine. You're not just getting the player. You're getting an economic return.

If rankine and rozee are there at 5..port are going to take rozee as he is their main target

 

[Draft Bored]

If Ogilvie feels the need to trade up into the top 4 I suspect we won't do it till draft night.

Showing our hand now gives others the chance to manoeuvre around us.

 

[cm_perfect]

Try telling that Richmond or Port who signed free agents without giving anything up

Ok

 

[BrissyCrow]

Correct contracts mean nothing now in terms of a player staying. All it does is give leverage to the Club to get a better deal. Thats it really, rarely do Clubs want to keep a player against their will.

Geelong are arseholes, but hey they are in the minority. Most would have accepted two 2nds. Its not like the Eagles had picks to give.

Sloane could easily go home at the end of next year. Problem is even if he has a great year, I dont see us getting massive overs for him due to his age.

Actually I am of a different opinion. The contract can be enforced. Geelong just did it and I dont consider Geelong a pack of arseholes for enforcing the contract. Personally I wish we had forced Gov to stay and I hope that other clubs out there do the same. I heard one of the commentors say that about May. He said "given that may has given 6 years to the Suns he should be allowed to break his final year of the contract". For me its comments like that that are helping to make contract less enforceable. The stance should be simple. He has one year left on his contract so he shouldn't be trying to force his way out. Once this type of stance has happened a few times players will become more aware that they must serve out their contacts.

The only time a contract can be broken is if both the club and the player agrees. You know we cant break a contract and tell a player he will be traded. If we try the player only has to say sorry I wont move.

The clubs need to dig their heels in. The AFL needs to change its stance from encouraging player movement to discouraging it.

 

[BrissyCrow]

If Ogilvie feels the need to trade up into the top 4 I suspect we won't do it till draft night.

Showing our hand now gives others the chance to manoeuvre around us.

But by holding on too long gives the others the chance to manoeuvre around us. Truth be known you'll be buggered if you act too quickly and you'll be buggered if you act too late. Oh yeah a late spur of the moment trade will cost a premium because the club your dealing with will milk you till you're dry.

 

[Scorpus]

Here's the first round SA players drafted since 2005

Pick 12: Darcy Fogarty (we drafted him)
Pick 21: Will Hayward (chose Gallucci instead)
Pick 6: Aaron Francis (unavailable to us)
Pick 11: Wayne Milera (we drafted him)
Pick 18: Ryan Burton (chose Doedee instead)
Pick 16: Sam Durdin (chose Lever instead)
Pick 6: Matthew Scharenberg (unavailable to us)
Pick 7: James Aish (unavailable to us)
Pick 18: Luke Dunstan (unavailable to us)
Pick 4: Jimmy Toumpas (unavailable to us)
Pick 11: Troy Menzel (we traded him in)
Pick 18: Brodie Grundy (unavailable to us)
Pick 19: Ben Kennedy (unavailable to us)
Pick 20: Tim Broomhead (draft sanctions meant unavailable to us)
Pick 6: Chad Wingard (Port drafted him)
Pick 18: Brad McKenzie (unavailable to us)
Pick 3: Sam Day (unavailable to us)
Pick 5: Jared Polec (unavailable to us)
Pick 10: Daniel Gorringe (unavailable to us)
Pick 13: Seb Tape (unavailable to us)
Pick 14: Brodie Smith (we drafted him)
Pick 2: Jack Trengove (unavailable to us)
Pick 15: Christian Howard (chose Talia instead)
Pick 17: Daniel Menzel (chose Talia instead)
Pick 4: Hamish Hartlett (Port drafted him)
Pick 10: Phil Davis (we drafted him, he left anyway)
Pick 12: Lewis Johnston (we traded him in)
Pick 16: Ryan Schoenmakers (chose Davis instead)
Pick 13: Brad Ebert (chose Dangerfield instead)
Pick 1: Bryce Gibbs (unavailable to us)
Pick 14: James Sellar (we drafted him)
Pick 13: Shannon Hurn (unavailable to us)
Pick 15: Travis Varcoe (unavailable to us)
Pick 17: Darren Pfeiffer (we drafted him)

Looking at this very disappointing list, a few things become clear:

1. Over the last 13 years, there have been very few SA players worth trading in, who weren't drafted by either ourselves or Port, that we couldn't have selected with our own picks. The highlights being Francis, Grundy, Polec, Gibbs and Hurn.
2. Of players we could have chosen with our picks but decided not to, only Hayward, Burton, D. Menzel and Ebert are any good. And in the case of all but Hayward (jury is still out on Gallucci) we chose a superior player instead.

Realistically we're in a position where Francis, Grundy and Hurn are the only players from SA we couldn't have drafted, that ended up outside SA, that we should have considered trading back in. Polec went to Port, we got Gibbs back eventually.

A large number of high draft pick SA players have, in fact, returned to SA. These include Burton, Toumpas, Polec, Trengove, T. Menzel, Gibbs, Johnston, and Ebert. Several players have left SA (Wingard, Polec, Davis and Sellar). A handful of players have been traded but not to an SA club (Aish, Gorringe, Varcoe), but none are worth pursuing.

To be fair, some highly rated SA players came back after it was discovered they were spuds, such as Toumpas and Trengove. Several, though, like Ebert, Gibbs, Burton and Menzel, came back when they were still rated.

Now for the question, should we have traded up for any of the players we didn't have access to? Maybe. Grundy is one definite candidate although we had draft sanctions which made that task impossible. In 2010 we could have traded up for Jared Polec, but we would have sacrificed Brodie Smith. In 2011 we could have traded up for Chad Wingard, but we actually chose to go higher and trade up for Brad Crouch instead. In 2009 we could have traded up for Jack Trengove, would have cost a fortune, but we drafted Daniel Talia that year. What about Hamish Hartlett? Well we could have gotten him, but that year we drafted Phil Davis, an SA kid who left anyway. What about Aaron Francis? Well we likely would have sacrificed Milera and Doedee.

At almost every point where we had an opportunity to trade up to grab a gun SA player, we either a) did the right thing not trading up, because that player turned out to be a spud; and/or b) did the right thing, because we drafted a better player with a later pick.

The only time we suffered from not trading up was the year Bryce Gibbs was drafted with pick 1. We drafted James Sellar that year with pick 14. It also would have been very difficult to get pick 1 with our assets. And years later Bryce would return anyway, some would say too late, but he did.

Would any of these high draft picks, like Sam Day, Jack Trengove or Hamish Hartlett turned out better in our system? Probably. But I'm very satisfied with us taking Brodie Smith, Daniel Talia and Phil Davis in those years instead, even though Davis left. I'm satisfied we took Milera and Doedee instead of Francis. I'm satisfied we took Matt Crouch over James Aish.

In short, I'm very satisfied with our drafting history in choosing to ignore SA players or not trade up the order. It's worked for us. I don't think 2018 is any different. And if an SA player gets drafted with a high pick to another state, not only would it be rare if they became a star, but there's actually a decent body of evidence to suggest they would return at some point for a reasonable cost.

 

[mattymac]

Here's the first round SA players drafted since 2005

Pick 12: Darcy Fogarty (we drafted him)
Pick 21: Will Hayward (chose Gallucci instead)
Pick 6: Aaron Francis (unavailable to us)
Pick 11: Wayne Milera (we drafted him)
Pick 18: Ryan Burton (chose Doedee instead)
Pick 16: Sam Durdin (chose Lever instead)
Pick 6: Matthew Scharenberg (unavailable to us)
Pick 7: James Aish (unavailable to us)
Pick 18: Luke Dunstan (unavailable to us)
Pick 4: Jimmy Toumpas (unavailable to us)
Pick 11: Troy Menzel (we traded him in)
Pick 18: Brodie Grundy (unavailable to us)
Pick 19: Ben Kennedy (unavailable to us)
Pick 20: Tim Broomhead (draft sanctions meant unavailable to us)
Pick 6: Chad Wingard (Port drafted him)
Pick 18: Brad McKenzie (unavailable to us)
Pick 3: Sam Day (unavailable to us)
Pick 5: Jared Polec (unavailable to us)
Pick 10: Daniel Gorringe (unavailable to us)
Pick 13: Seb Tape (unavailable to us)
Pick 14: Brodie Smith (we drafted him)
Pick 2: Jack Trengove (unavailable to us)
Pick 15: Christian Howard (chose Talia instead)
Pick 17: Daniel Menzel (chose Talia instead)
Pick 4: Hamish Hartlett (Port drafted him)
Pick 10: Phil Davis (we drafted him, he left anyway)
Pick 12: Lewis Johnston (we traded him in)
Pick 16: Ryan Schoenmakers (chose Davis instead)
Pick 13: Brad Ebert (chose Dangerfield instead)
Pick 1: Bryce Gibbs (unavailable to us)
Pick 14: James Sellar (we drafted him)
Pick 13: Shannon Hurn (unavailable to us)
Pick 15: Travis Varcoe (unavailable to us)
Pick 17: Darren Pfeiffer (we drafted him)

Looking at this very disappointing list, a few things become clear:

1. Over the last 13 years, there have been very few SA players worth trading in, who weren't drafted by either ourselves or Port, that we couldn't have selected with our own picks. The highlights being Francis, Grundy, Polec, Gibbs and Hurn.
2. Of players we could have chosen with our picks but decided not to, only Hayward, Burton, D. Menzel and Ebert are any good. And in the case of all but Hayward (jury is still out on Gallucci) we chose a superior player instead.

Realistically we're in a position where Francis, Grundy and Hurn are the only players from SA we couldn't have drafted, that ended up outside SA, that we should have considered trading back in. Polec went to Port, we got Gibbs back eventually.

A large number of high draft pick SA players have, in fact, returned to SA. These include Burton, Toumpas, Polec, Trengove, T. Menzel, Gibbs, Johnston, and Ebert. Several players have left SA (Wingard, Polec, Davis and Sellar). A handful of players have been traded but not to an SA club (Aish, Gorringe, Varcoe), but none are worth pursuing.

To be fair, some highly rated SA players came back after it was discovered they were spuds, such as Toumpas and Trengove. Several, though, like Ebert, Gibbs, Burton and Menzel, came back when they were still rated.

Now for the question, should we have traded up for any of the players we didn't have access to? Maybe. Grundy is one definite candidate although we had draft sanctions which made that task impossible. In 2010 we could have traded up for Jared Polec, but we would have sacrificed Brodie Smith. In 2011 we could have traded up for Chad Wingard, but we actually chose to go higher and trade up for Brad Crouch instead. In 2009 we could have traded up for Jack Trengove, would have cost a fortune, but we drafted Daniel Talia that year. What about Hamish Hartlett? Well we could have gotten him, but that year we drafted Phil Davis, an SA kid who left anyway. What about Aaron Francis? Well we likely would have sacrificed Milera and Doedee.

At almost every point where we had an opportunity to trade up to grab a gun SA player, we either a) did the right thing not trading up, because that player turned out to be a spud; and/or b) did the right thing, because we drafted a better player with a later pick.

The only time we suffered from not trading up was the year Bryce Gibbs was drafted with pick 1. We drafted James Sellar that year with pick 14. It also would have been very difficult to get pick 1 with our assets. And years later Bryce would return anyway, some would say too late, but he did.

Would any of these high draft picks, like Sam Day, Jack Trengove or Hamish Hartlett turned out better in our system? Probably. But I'm very satisfied with us taking Brodie Smith, Daniel Talia and Phil Davis in those years instead, even though Davis left. I'm satisfied we took Milera and Doedee instead of Francis. I'm satisfied we took Matt Crouch over James Aish.

In short, I'm very satisfied with our drafting history in choosing to ignore SA players or not trade up the order. It's worked for us. I don't think 2018 is any different. And if an SA player gets drafted with a high pick to another state, not only would it be rare if they became a star, but there's actually a decent body of evidence to suggest they would return at some point for a reasonable cost.

Only the fail picks returned home of their own volition.

Burton didn't want to, got shopped.

Gibbs came home on a retirement package that cost an arm and a leg.

The others are all spuds.

Very flawed analysis.

 

[FR0GGY]

We did well to get it and it only cost us an extra pick in the 40s that we weren’t going to use anyway.

Oh yeah? Why did we have to rob from next year a 4th rounder?

 

[El Doederino]

If Gold Coast want to take Luko, Rozee and Caldwell they can achieve that by trading us 3 for 8 and our 2019 1st. I’d be tempted, but no way would I do it for 6.

Edit: They may not get Rozee actually. I personally think that they are the only club that would take him top 5. Think both Port and Crows would take Luko, Rankine and Smith first.

Not Port

Port aren't selling the farm for a Victorian. Their fans would go mental. It's all about Port getting their hands on a SA kid before we do.

Talent, ability and potential are secondary.

 

[Brenton Davy]

Well, it's both simpler and more complicated than that.

He's very good, no doubt. He will pick the best available with the picks he has, but I'm sure he's well aware the best 8 or so on his list will be gone by our first pick.

How can the best 8 be ALL gone at our pick 8?

 

[hey shorty]

It was clear from the context that I was saying our picks are shitty compared to the hand GC already holds.

I hope you're just playing dumb.

Every clubs hand is compared to that. You've got 5 clubs who hold about 85% of the first round.

That's almost unheard of since the start up of these franchises. We are one of those clubs. Sure if an opportunity presented itself to grab 2, 3 or 4 you take it, but currently with our list probably a little older than it should be, we are better to take 4 really good kids than 2 who are likely to be really good.

The club are in a no win situation. Burn your picks to get one of the big 3, what happens if they flop ?? On the other hand if we dont and we get 4 picks in and they all flop, which is unlikely, then itll be "oh we should have traded up"

 

[hey shorty]

How can the best 8 be ALL gone at our pick 8?

Blakey is considered top 8 and Sydney will match any bid

 

[mistylake]

Actually I am of a different opinion. The contract can be enforced. Geelong just did it and I dont consider Geelong a pack of arseholes for enforcing the contract. Personally I wish we had forced Gov to stay and I hope that other clubs out there do the same. I heard one of the commentors say that about May. He said "given that may has given 6 years to the Suns he should be allowed to break his final year of the contract". For me its comments like that that are helping to make contract less enforceable. The stance should be simple. He has one year left on his contract so he shouldn't be trying to force his way out. Once this type of stance has happened a few times players will become more aware that they must serve out their contacts.

The only time a contract can be broken is if both the club and the player agrees. You know we cant break a contract and tell a player he will be traded. If we try the player only has to say sorry I wont move.

The clubs need to dig their heels in. The AFL needs to change its stance from encouraging player movement to discouraging it.

How would people like it if contracts were regularly broken in other business matters. Law firms would love it as they would be swamped with work.

 

[Morning_Fog]

Every clubs hand is compared to that. You've got 5 clubs who hold about 85% of the first round.

That's almost unheard of since the start up of these franchises. We are one of those clubs. Sure if an opportunity presented itself to grab 2, 3 or 4 you take it, but currently with our list probably a little older than it should be, we are better to take 4 really good kids than 2 who are likely to be really good.

The club are in a no win situation. Burn your picks to get one of the big 3, what happens if they flop ?? On the other hand if we dont and we get 4 picks in and they all flop, which is unlikely, then itll be "oh we should have traded up"

What happens if we draft a Non SA kid and in 2-6 years they go home?

I’m sure the “should have drafted up card” will be played. Especially if Lukosius, Rankine or Rozee becomes stars and never come home.

From my perspective, I’m 100% taking the risk to get my hands on pick 2 and 3 to grab Lukosius and Rankine. I’m doing everything I can short of selling the farm. I’m giving 2019 first to them, 8, 13 and 16

Thats the risk taking I want the crows to take. Stop playing safe. This is the hand to go all in on.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Actually I am of a different opinion. The contract can be enforced. Geelong just did it and I dont consider Geelong a pack of arseholes for enforcing the contract. Personally I wish we had forced Gov to stay and I hope that other clubs out there do the same. I heard one of the commentors say that about May. He said "given that may has given 6 years to the Suns he should be allowed to break his final year of the contract". For me its comments like that that are helping to make contract less enforceable. The stance should be simple. He has one year left on his contract so he shouldn't be trying to force his way out. Once this type of stance has happened a few times players will become more aware that they must serve out their contacts.

The only time a contract can be broken is if both the club and the player agrees. You know we cant break a contract and tell a player he will be traded. If we try the player only has to say sorry I wont move.

The clubs need to dig their heels in. The AFL needs to change its stance from encouraging player movement to discouraging it.

POV's on Contracts will vary on which team you follow & which side of the fence you sit

WE said infinitum ....that McGovern is worth not what Carlton had in trade chips .....so we can't be hypocritical and say Geelong were arseholes for not accepting the trade chips West Coast had

If Kelly were a Crows player, we would have applauded the decision to not accept West Coast's offer

The only time a contract can be broken is if both the club and the player agrees

This is spot on ......too many players now want the security of a long-term contract, but also the ability to break it on a whim, such as a stern exit interview from the Coach .....this is not a reason to break a Contract !

 

[Morning_Fog]

How would people like it if contracts were regularly broken in other business matters. Law firms would love it as they would be swamped with work.

Not sure what you are on about but contracts are broken everyday. Heck, the Crows broke a contract with CM just this year.

It simply requires the 2 parties to agree upon settlement. Law firms don’t need to get involved, common sence and basic understanding does. As long as the loss of income, wages or reputation isn’t involved, it becomes a smooth process.

 

[Coopers]

How can the best 8 be ALL gone at our pick 8?

Well, yeah. With compo picks!
Best 7 then. His order might differ, so we might get his #5 ranked player.

 

[tinman]

How would people like it if contracts were regularly broken in other business matters. Law firms would love it as they would be swamped with work.

I do agree, but how many other jobs are there where you enter a draft which gives you no say about who your new employer will be? And even mentioning who you’d like to work for can be interpreted as tampering?

The whole system can’t be compared to the real world.

 

[GreyCrow]

I do agree, but how many other jobs are there where you enter a draft which gives you no say about who your new employer will be? And even mentioning who you’d like to work for can be interpreted as tampering?

The whole system can’t be compared to the real world.

Good point but the argument is you are applying to work for the AFL and its subsidiaries. You are told you may be moved to any of those subsidiaries. You can choose not to

 

[Crow till I die]

Every clubs hand is compared to that. You've got 5 clubs who hold about 85% of the first round.

That's almost unheard of since the start up of these franchises. We are one of those clubs. Sure if an opportunity presented itself to grab 2, 3 or 4 you take it, but currently with our list probably a little older than it should be, we are better to take 4 really good kids than 2 who are likely to be really good.

The club are in a no win situation. Burn your picks to get one of the big 3, what happens if they flop ?? On the other hand if we dont and we get 4 picks in and they all flop, which is unlikely, then itll be "oh we should have traded up"

I am quite sure haggis will have a list of players he wants at our picks in the 70's if we trade up and with our strike rate i would not doubt we will get some good kids with those picks as well. Sure 1st round picks are a premium but this year we have the hand to try to secure one or two top rated SA kids with our high picks..do it if we can and back ourselves in to draft some late gems to complete our list

 

[Iron]

lol, They could have picks 1-10 and it wouldn't matter. A losing culture has been established at the AFC and they aren't getting rid of it any time soon.

Are you on a higher plane of ironic social commentary with these Mike Smythesque empty beaten down loser posts?

Is it temporary at least? Its so spot on that it's just as pathetic to read.

 

[Murray2503]

McGuire, McLachlin, Afl commission, player managers and the players sssociation are slowly but surely destroying the game. Free agency was a massive win for the Vfl and especially the big 4 vic clubs. Coupled with players and their managers now dictating that they are breaking their contract and telling their club where they wil bel breaking their contract too. Most of the time they ask too be traded to a top 4 team that due to its ladder position doesn't have the draft picks to satisfy the losing club which slowly erodes any equality in our game. Add to this McGuire and his cronies at the afl commission silently ******* over the non victorian sides for the next 40 years due to its grand final agreement at the mcg. What has occurred this year is a fairly significant drop in the ratings for the home and away season and the poorest standard I have seen for 10 years. Most weekends there was 1 to 2 good games and the rest blowouts and defensive maul snooze fests. Foxtel and channel 7 were complaining that something needs to be done with congestion and the afl spent 6 months to try and fix the congestion and their suggestion is 6 6 6. Right, that is their suggestion after 6 months work? That will not fix congestion in the slightest. Channel 7 and foxtel will not continue to pay the money they have for this lopsided competition dominated by the big 4 victorian clubs with many of the other matches basically congested rugby games under the guise of afl. Who will suffer? Ultimately the players and the fans if this bullshit is allowed to continue. Adam Simpson plans to raise a lot of these problems of the growing divide between victorian and non victorian teams in his meeting with the afl commission as the winning grand final coach. I doubt they will listen.

 

[Redline]

We can definitely match any offer for Doedee, it's whether our club wants too. We have the same salary cap as any other club although our club acts like we have 70% at times due to the fact the club can't ever move anyone out unless it's player iniated. We need to sign Doedee on a lucrative 5 year deal if his form warrants it over the next 18 months. Other interstate teams keep young guns, we should not be any different.

Yeah your right we could match it but history says we probably won't.

You make a good point about our pay structure and moving players on. I think the club is now so focussed on retention due to the media that we may not always be making the right decision. The fact we group players like Mackay, Douglas, Ellis-Slowman and Otten as examples of players staying with the club is a concern when really no one else would of picked them up.

 

[Crowked]

Who did the AFL website article about who each club might take with their first picks?

Other than the obvious Walsh to Carlton and Luko to GC, they couldn’t have ballsed it up anymore than they did.

My personal favourite is Hawthorn taking Bailey Williams at 53. Yeh, he’ll be gone inside 30, possibly late first round.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Can anyone at all give me even 1 positive reason why Terry Wallace has the slightest credibility as a "List Manager"

I can't remember 1 statement he's made, where i've said to myself, that's a good comment or inciteful ? ......i just don't get why he's employed .....now Glen Luff from Champion Data (now NM) is superb to listen to