Review 2018 Trade Period

[JustaBattler]

You judge performance against what is possible/probable - on this basis both McGovern and Setterfield if they play to potential will be outstanding gets for 2X second rounders and a couple of fake PP state league types.

I am as interested in the potential success of Fasolo and Newman picks as the two above. These types of acquisitions are what separate the ordinary from the top tier recruiting teams - would be great to see Fasolo play well for us - at least he has performed at the highest level in the past - but injury and other issues may be baggage he cant throw away. Newman will be a safer and better bet than OShea/Mullett types - lets not assume Simmo will be running around in 2020.

Carlton is entering unchartered territory next year - with the ability of cleaning up second tier players out of list Casboult/Kerridge/Graham are obvious finger pointing exercise alongside Phillips and perhaps under performing young ones like LeBois. The true finish of the list rebuild will be finished when all these older second tier players are replaced with better depth - that is a job in itself.

Personally - I would have paid the first rounder to get Shiel - but the Club had better plans for it - so time will tell on that one.

Overall - I rate this as the best trade period so far - getting all disclosed targets bar 1 - especially in context of how bad 2018 was as far as on field performance goes.

DFA will be another test alongside late picks in draft - the final story hasn't been written yet.

 

[Faz 2000]

For now I'm going with a B.

+ Closed deal on primary targets McLovin and Setterfield
+ Cheap option on Fasolo who could be a nice role-player in our forward line
+ Retained 2018/19 first round draft picks
+ Gave the Shiel pursuit a red hot go
+ Newman for a song is good shopping

- Did not achieve immediate midfield support
- (I think) gave up the state-leaguers and second-rounders a bit too readily. 13+ for McLovin is a lot.
- Left with lousy draft hand after pick 1 this year

? Setterfield might be nothing if he can't get his body right. But he has the *potential* to literally be our best player. Think about that. How he goes will go a long way to scoring this year in retrospect.
? Is McLovin a useful x-factor third tall - or does he have scope for growth into being a bonafide star like his bro?
? Is there a final twist in the pick 1 story on draft night? Port or Adelaide's first two picks are not a million miles off pick 1 in value.

 

[FRUMPY]

Giving it a B. We got what we wanted from the outset but probably not what they were promising/talking up towards the end of the season. I don't see a great deal of improvement from what we got. Still very much relying on those who were injured last year playing well and younger players taking a decent step to see any real improvement.

Instead of potentially going from 2 wins to 7 or 8 if we also landed a big fish, realistically expect 4 or 5 wins max.

 

[billybloggs]

I thought Sos did a great job. He didn't dawdle, he jumped in quick to get the Gov trade over the line. By doing the trade of 26 & 28 to the Swans for 13 was smart, Eagles were slow to react and they had 20 & 22 which stuffed the Kelly trade and no doubt would have suited the Swans more so than our picks. Had the eagles reacted quicker and beaten Sos to pick 13, we may have had to cough up a lot more or heaven forbid, not got the trade over the line at all. The McAdam give was always on considering Gov was contracted and they expected overs after the Gibbs trade. That trade put to bed allowed Sos to get Setters done quickly as well, without having to manipulate different scenarios. Fasola a welcome give me. Keeping pick 1 and Future pick 1 a real bonus. Well done SOS.

 

[Macca43]

With the blues “66 game rebuild” coming to an end in this draft period it is interesting to look back at what has been achieved;

8 first round draft pick in 4 years (6 top 10)
Traded in 2012’s pick 3, 2013’s pick 16, 2014’s pick 4, 6 & 15, 2015’s pick 13 & 2016’s pick 5 (7 first rounders in total)
Grabbed the likes of Fisher, Williamson & De Koning with later picks (possibly Polson or Kerr could join this group)
Picked up Mitch McGovern

I would say that is a pretty decent effort.

Another way of looking at the blues trade period is that they started with pick 1, 26, 28, 69 & 77 plus access to two mature age players.

We ended with 1 (undoubtedly Walsh), McGovern with 26, Setterfield with 28, Fasolo & Newman with the mature age players and with 69 & 77 we will probably get B Silvagni and W Hickmott.

That is a pretty good use of draft picks.

When you factor in we swapped a 2019 second round for a 2019 third round, swapped a 2018 4th round in (71) for a 2019 fourth round out and lost a 2019 fifth round pick it brings the effort back to the pack a little but nothing substantial.

Setterfield looks an elite talent (his U18 highlights look so much like Bontempelli), McGovern can take a lot of pressure off Charlie Curnow & McKay at one end or swing back to help out Weitering & Marchbank at the other, Fasolo & Newman are a bit meh but for their price they only really have upside and then we will take Walsh at 1.

A Solid B+

 

[Jeremias]

Think we can say this was a successful period - we've added some experience with considerable upside, whilst keeping our main draft assets.

It's disappointing to miss out on Shiel, but always thought we were unlikely there, with Hawthorn and Essendon in a better position to bring him across.

Other than that I am very pleased.

McGovern is a better get than many seem to think, for mine he walks into any forward line in the competition. Might have overpaid slightly, but with two years remaining on a contract, that was always likely to happen.

Setterfield is a risk but the potential upside is enormous. At worst (ie. we finish 18th in 2019) we've paid the equivalent of pick 12, not bad for someone we rated so highly just two years ago.

Fasolo is a free hit and a direct replacement for Wright. Has had some issues over the past few years, but clearly has plenty of talent and considerable upside.

Newman is a smart inclusion and a very good one for the price paid, although some will query why we paid anything at all. Ticks plenty of boxes for us - right age bracket, mature body, beautiful kick. Very capable replacement for Byrne, could be argued an upgrade given their respective durability.

Let's see what happens with our first round picks now. Think we should be very open to offers for both - but we're in a strong position even if nothing happens there.

 

[Brezsa]

Well, the ABC has rated Carlton as one of, if not the, worst performers in this trade period

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-18/who-won-and-lost-the-afl-trade-period/10389904

I really don't know what to make of their analysis.............

Government funded junk, dw I’m old and have health issues but I’ll still out live that organisation

 

[Macca43]

Think we can say this was a successful period - we've added some experience with considerable upside, whilst keeping our main draft assets.

It's disappointing to miss out on Shiel, but always thought we were unlikely there, with Hawthorn and Essendon in a better position to bring him across.

Other than that I am very pleased.

McGovern is a better get than many seem to think, for mine he walks into any forward line in the competition. Might have overpaid slightly, but with two years remaining on a contract, that was always likely to happen.

Setterfield is a risk but the potential upside is enormous. At worst (ie. we finish 18th in 2019) we've paid the equivalent of pick 12, not bad for someone we rated so highly just two years ago.

Fasolo is a free hit and a direct replacement for Wright. Has had some issues over the past few years, but clearly has plenty of talent and considerable upside.

Newman is a smart inclusion and a very good one for the price paid, although some will query why we paid anything at all. Ticks plenty of boxes for us - right age bracket, mature body, beautiful kick. Very capable replacement for Byrne, could be argued an upgrade given their respective durability.

Let's see what happens with our first round picks now. Think we should be very open to offers for both - but we're in a strong position even if nothing happens there.

I have been told by a friend of Walsh's family they have been told we are taking him.

 

[Jeremias]

I have been told by a friend of Walsh's family they have been told we are taking him.

I can't see us doing anything else, although it'll be interesting to see if we're tempted by any offers coming through from the GC or either SA side.

That comment was more about our 2019 1st which I'd gladly use to give us a greater presence in this years draft.

 

[Donstuie]

Posted this elsewhere...

Nailed it

Fremantle:
- Yes they lost Neale, but still have Fyfe and Mundy in the middle to hold the fort while Cerra and Brayshaw develop, and Colyer & Conca are solid foot soldiers too.
- They finally get themselves that key forward they've been screaming for post-Pavlich (Hogan), as well as a Sandilands successor (Lobb).
- They have substantially improved their overall draft position from where it started.

Brisbane:
- Lost Beams (and Mayes to a lesser extent), but gain a genuine superstar in Neale to add to what is becoming a pretty formidable midfield unit.
- Gained Adams who (if fit) will work well in tandem with with Harris Andrews.
- Improve their 2019 draft position while not totally throwing to baby out with the bathwater like some others.

Melbourne:
- While they lost Hogan, they showed in 2018 they can survive without him. Joel MacDonald, Sam Wiedeman and now a resting Max Gawn (via the acquisition of Brayden Preuss) gives them plenty of tall timber up front.
- Adding May (and KK to a lesser extent) to a defence with Oscar McDonald and Jake Lever (along with Hibberd and Jetta as smalls) suddenly makes what was one of their weaker areas formidable.
- Improved draft position by offloading midfield depth.
- IMO this trade period puts them in definite flag contention.

Richmond:
- A no-brainer, they gained Lynch for nothing.
- Lost nothing but fringe players and salaries (which will only bite them if they actually start getting injuries, but we know that'll never ****ing happen!)

Collingwood:
- While the cost was high, adding Beams to one of the most formidable midfields is definitely a win.
- Still have enough draft value to bring Quaynor and Will Kelly in.
- Roughead isn't a bad smokey too who can pinch-hit anywhere tall timber is needed, and area they've struggled in.


Solid but overrated

Hawthorn:
- Hawks have gone all-in for a shot at another flag right away.
- All of their picks have the potential to get them back to the top or send them downwards at a rate of knots.

*:
- Gained Shiel who fills a definite need for them (and they didn't need a private jet OMGLOL!!! #STANDBYHIRD!!!).
- But they also gave up a lot and as we know these guys are always overrated.

Norf:
- Missed out on Gaff (LOLNORF) but gained some solid enough citizens that will improve them a bit (although I'm baffled they let Preuss go), but not enough for them to go past that mid-point long-term.
- Sacrificed higher draft picks for more in the middle so they can still acquire Tarryn Thomas and possibly Bailey Scott as F/S.
- Definitely did better than last year where they were useless, so perhaps that's why their efforts are a bit overhyped?


Solid but underrated

Carlton:
- I think we'll value our trade performance better than what the "experts" will.
- Focus will be on who we didn't get (Shiel - OMG PRIVATE JET OMG LOL!!!), needs we didn't address (senior midfield experience, zippy midfielders and small forwards) and taking ourselves out of rounds 2 and 3 of the draft.
- But we did address our age profile by bringing in players in early/mid 20's in areas we're lacking, and who will (at least slightly, but potentially considerably) improve our team in 2019.
- Time will tell whether we overpaid for McGovern, but in our developing and talented forwardline the benefits of his presence are clear.
- Setterfield (if he can get his body right) could be the steal of this trade period. There has to be a very good reason SOS and other recruiters rated him so highly (apparently Dodoro was tempted to use pick 1 on him) and when you hear things like "the next Pendlebury / Bontempelli" that's pretty damn exciting.
- Fasolo brings experience and a bit of excitement to our forward line (with brief stints in the middle), and cost us nothing. Low cost / High reward.
- Nic Newman could be an astute moneyball pick, and ideally timed with Byrne's departure. I don't know a lot about him (I don't watch the Swans much) but the consensus was his latter 2018 was very good and if not for Lloyd being there he would've been a regular in the Swans 22.
- We kept pick 1 and our 2019 1st.
- The best recruit this past fortnight isn't a player, but a bloke who can make our entire squad better and stronger - ANDREW RUSSELL.

Adelaide:
- Forgetting all the off-field BS (which is considerable) their trade period wasn't too bad overall.
- Lost McGovern, but gained McAdam for nothing, and have a very strong hand in the draft.
- Whether they decide to trade up for Lukosius/Rankine or use their picks as is, the kids will be adding to what is still a formidable looking and experienced squad.
- The success/failure of their trade period can only be measured with time and is dependent on sorting their off-field shit out.

Port Adelaide:
- Yes, they've lost Polec and Wingard (only reason I don't have them in the "Nailed it" bracket), but I think they've done damn well overall.
- They gained Burton (KPD), Lycett (tandem ruck with Ryder), and Mayes (midfield depth) while strengthening their draft position to the point they can make a real play for 1 or 2 in the SA arms race.
- I'm really surprised so many people are considering their trade period a bust?

Geelong:
- Stuck to their guns and kept Kelly (although I thought WCE's offer of two early-20s picks was fair, especially if a 3rd party came along with a 1st rounder of equal points).
- Gained Dalhaus to add much needed spark to their slow forward line, and Gary Rohan could be a steal if he can get his fitness right (no guarantee).
- Only lost fringe players.
- Their only issue is they're still too damn old.

GWS:
- Yes, they lost a shitload of experience and talent for inadequate compensation overall, this can't be disputed.
- However they have the depth to cover these losses, and their salary cap issues are sorted.
- They also come into the draft with a solid hand, so they will add more talent to an already talented group.


Meh

Sydney / St Kilda / Western Bulldogs / West Coast
- On the whole these guys all gave up little and got little.
- Not much more you can say.


Disaster

Gold Coast:
- Lost both captains in just over a week, and no amount of fringe seniors will fill that void.
- They're at "Ground Zero - Carlton 2015" and are in for a very tough road.
- Have a great hand for the draft, but they're essentially starting over.
- Their only saving grace is they've got some good kids from the last couple of drafts, which they'll add to this year. But strong leadership will be needed to avoid a repeat of past failures.

TL : DR

Smashed it:
Freo
Melbourne
Brisbane
Richmond
Collingwood

Solid but overrated:
Hawthorn
Essendon
North Melbourne

Solid but underrated:
Carlton
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
GWS
Geelong

Meh:
Sydney
St Kilda
West Coast
Bulldogs

Disaster:
Gold Coast

 

[El Topo]

Well, the ABC has rated Carlton as one of, if not the, worst performers in this trade period

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-18/who-won-and-lost-the-afl-trade-period/10389904

I really don't know what to make of their analysis.............

If the state league picks are worth second rounders, why did the market price them as 40+ in a trade? Bloody ABC budget cuts

 

[GordonBlue]

I gave us a B+ only because I love McGovern and Setterfield. However if we see it as a whole, it is more likely B.

We went into trade week with aims and specific targets. You cannot give Carlton an A as we missed out on our biggest target and achieving the aim to bolster the midfield immediately.

However, for sheer squad improvement and the potential of the players we brought it, it was a great period.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

The trade period is either a B+ or an A. Simply because it built upon and continued what SOS and Bolton have been planning for the club without losing any talent from the club. Previous years it's been about taking a step backwards to take big steps forwards in the future, the way we went about this trade period signaled that Carlton thinks this team is almost ready. Oh and they've grabbed a fitness guru as well.

 

[THE_GUN]

Hi guys i have not posted in here for a while so thought i'd pop in and wish you guys well for the 2019 season and congratulate carlton for having a very good trade period.

McGovern -
reasonable cost and quality player, Prior to the trade my thoughts were pick #15 - #20 about his value but being contracted a little over is no issue
so good result

Setterfield - Bargain and will become a very very good player for the blues

Newman - Good replacement for Simpson in coming years and adds experience and maturity as well as a good cheap trade

Fasolo - This pick doesnt excite me but didnt cost anything apart from cap space and would be on not much so worth the risk

Overall i gave Carlton a B+

Well Done

 

[Aphrodite]

SOS dissects trade period .......

 

[SurreyBlue]

For now I'm going with a B.

+ Closed deal on primary targets McLovin and Setterfield
+ Cheap option on Fasolo who could be a nice role-player in our forward line
+ Retained 2018/19 first round draft picks
+ Gave the Shiel pursuit a red hot go
+ Newman for a song is good shopping

- Did not achieve immediate midfield support
- (I think) gave up the state-leaguers and second-rounders a bit too readily. 13+ for McLovin is a lot.
- Left with lousy draft hand after pick 1 this year

? Setterfield might be nothing if he can't get his body right. But he has the *potential* to literally be our best player. Think about that. How he goes will go a long way to scoring this year in retrospect.
? Is McLovin a useful x-factor third tall - or does he have scope for growth into being a bonafide star like his bro?
? Is there a final twist in the pick 1 story on draft night? Port or Adelaide's first two picks are not a million miles off pick 1 in value.

Excellent write up ....... but how do you give it a B after all the negatives?.

 

[Donstuie]

Do you guys also realise we were the only team to not lose a player in a trade or to FA this year?

(Krueger and McAdam don’t count as they were never ours)

Pretty remarkable given the year we had. I’d call that a ringing endorsement of the culture at the club right now.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Fasolo - This pick doesnt excite me but didnt cost anything apart from cap space and would be on not much so worth the risk

Worried he’ll kick 5 or 6 on Rance again?

 

[Brezsa]

SOS dissects trade period .......

Takes from that. Said depth 3 times when referring to Newman, so club doesn’t see him as best 22???

Didn’t see any movement on life trading for us, suggested we won’t be active there, so that suggest 1 is safe

 

[bluebrew]

Do you guys also realise we were the only team to not lose a player in a trade or to FA this year?

(Krueger and McAdam don’t count as they were never ours)

Pretty remarkable given the year we had. I’d call that a ringing endorsement of the culture at the club right now.

Or there was no interest in our players.. but we will never know.

Gave them an A Could still be an A+ if we get the right DFA's.
Mcgovern and Setterfield are straight into our best 22 Newman is going to create more flexibility for our backline and Fasolo is depth for our forwards.

trading of picks can still occur right up to draft night so plenty of time for further change still.

 

[Faz 2000]

Excellent write up ....... but how do you give it a B after all the negatives?.

Because getting deals done (McGov, Setters) trumps staying put and hoping (St Kilda, Swans).

B is a strong pass, but not something mum and dad magnet to the fridge.

At least in my house. #standards #achievement #family issues

 

[windows1]

Isn’t it really simple?

We gave up 3 second round picks and got Setterfield, Fasolo and McGovern.

If fit they will all play a huge amount of footy for us.

Second rebound picks are incredibly unreliable from a probability perspective. To land what we have is a great effort.

We still have Walsh to come. We still ha e a lot of cap space left.

We lost no one. Missing out on Shiel leaves space for others next year.

Great effort.

 

[The Bighouse]

Do you guys also realise we were the only team to not lose a player in a trade or to FA this year?

(Krueger and McAdam don’t count as they were never ours)

Pretty remarkable given the year we had. I’d call that a ringing endorsement of the culture at the club right now.

The only negative to that, is that we offloaded 12 players (4 retired, 2 prematurely) so no currency on the outgoing 8 to be in the trading sphere.

Sounds like the club is bubbling along beautifully as place where they want to be & play footy. Now for a solid, defining pre-season ahead to shape the boys into elite AFL players/team.

 

[Arr0w]

I don’t get this, we already have signed Fasolo..? Someone like a Fasolo

Yes, someone, like Fasolo

 

[rampar]

Over paid for two injury prone players but we over paid because they were contracted. I get that.

But injury prone they are and always will be, seems to be a SOS pattern.

B-