Analysis 2018 v 2017 YOY comparison - are we really getting better?

[Balony_pony16]

great analysis

 

[briztoon]

I don't think its realistic to expect anyone who has followed this club over the last decade or so to just completely disregard the continual rebuilds and disappointments. While i can see the positives and am genuinely hopeful that this is it as far as attempts at rebuilding goes, there's still a very large and real voice in the back of my mind that is telling me we've seen this before and it hasn't worked. I don't think theres anything wrong with be a bit reserved in going all in.

Seeing as I only started following the Lions from the 2013 draft, were there previous attempts to rebuild through the draft, from the bottom?

I believe even long time fans have to acknowledge the hole that the go home 5 left the club in. And then missing on Aish and Schache has hurt.

Rebuilding from the bottom, through the draft is a slow process, especially when the team has so few experienced quality senior players.

My view of the club, is that we’re basically rebuilding similar to an expansion club, without the draft concessions. We really can’t afford to miss at the draft, and need our academy to produce enough decent players to surround our top draftees.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Seeing as I only started following the Lions from the 2013 draft, were there previous attempts to rebuild through the draft, from the bottom?

Of sorts, yes. Worth remembering that we had three top ten picks from 2005-07 that didn't go as we would have hoped:

Pick 9, 2005: Mitch Clark
Pick 4, 2006: Matthew Leuenberger
Pick 8, 2007: Lachie Henderson

Looking at our second round picks from those seasons isn't inspiring reading either.

The pattern of the club for the past decade (longer, really) has been the excitement of draftees coming in, showing some real promise, and then ultimately not fulfilling that potential and getting delisted or requesting a trade out to fulfil it (or not) elsewhere, with just a few players going on to be long term reliable senior players.

The clubs that have successfully re-built through the draft have done it through nailing their early picks, which is something we haven't done in recent history (Polec, Mayes, Longer, Docherty, Aish and Schache could all well be put in the same basket as the 05-07 group for various reasons).

There is clearly significant hope that the 2016 crop might be the first draft in a long time that we actually nailed and that last year's group similarly might bear some real fruit. But the trend has been that often despite some early positive signs with our draftees, they've ultimately failed to go on to become great players for us time and time again.

So I think it's entirely natural if not wise to treat this rebuild with caution. We've had far too many false dawns and false starts to immediately believe wholeheartedly that this is genuinely the turning point, and I imagine it will probably take a finals appearance before many of us are truly convinced that the dark days are behind us.

The draft carries a great deal of excitement with it and I think it's quite smart of the AFL to give supporters of struggling sides some real hope and optimism each year, but it is far from a guaranteed pathway to success. Perhaps even more troublingly is the trend of late that suggests the draft mightn't be the way to build a strong list, as the top teams have done it more through trade and free agency in recent years.

 

[Pacman82]

The general consensus among a lot of us was that we're basing improvement on %. We can rack up all the stats in the world, but unless we're converting in front of the sticks then who give's a toss

 

[lioninthesand]

I totally agree that winning is all that matters. Id take no improvement in stats for a win or two any day of the week.

The purpose of this was to negate this overwhelmimging negative sentiment we are somehow worse this year, that is not the case.

 

[lioninthesand]

No improvement matters till we win games. We are no longer the 'bunch of kids' we like to think we are. The only stats that matter anymore are those displayed on the league ladder.

Still I like the thread. Nice work

Thanks mate.

I do disagree on the kids, I often think average age is misleading.

Last week these players had 60 or so games or less experience.

Rayner, Bailey, Hipwood, Witherdon, mcgluggage, berry, Andrews, Allison, Mcstay, Gardiner, Robertson.. that is half the team. That is an an incredibly inexperienced outfit and any team with that much inexperience is going to struggle. Once they all get to 50-100 games, then we can start to drop our lollies and that is 2020 - a year most have cited we should be in final contention.

 

[dlanod]

I totally agree that winning is all that matters. Id take no improvement in stats for a win or two any day of the week.

The purpose of this was to negate this overwhelmimging negative sentiment we are somehow worse this year, that is not the case.

It's also useful to put into context. I suspect a team with the stats you outline wouldn't normally be 0-5, having jagged a win somewhere by combining their best performances against an opposition bad performance simply by luck.

 

[charles202]

I think it's exciting that we have improved so much despite poor starts to the year from Beams and Zorko and Rich being out.

In my mind we win the Saints game if Rich doesn't go down and likewise Port if Beams and Rich play.

Winning is the outcome of improved performance, focus on the path not the destination is the best way to climb a mountain..:.of course a couple of sherpas always help <insert Simpsons gif here>

 

[Forward We Go]

I think it's exciting that we have improved so much despite poor starts to the year from Beams and Zorko and Rich being out.

In my mind we win the Saints game if Rich doesn't go down and likewise Port if Beams and Rich play.

Winning is the outcome of improved performance, focus on the path not the destination is the best way to climb a mountain..:.of course a couple of sherpas always help <insert Simpsons gif here>

Agree 100%. (Especially the sherpas)
I understand the posters who have disappointment of the previous years but seriously, there is a time when you need to move on and let it go rather than letting it rot you from the inside out. Now is the present and one that we can witness gradual improvement & hopefully see success. BUT, there is no guarantees in anything in life. Winning a granny isn't as easy as it looked 20001/02/03 & I think some thought it was and still should be.

 

[Skoob]

For where we're at, anyone who believes 'wins are all that matters' should probably take another year off and come back later.
The old addage "results will take care of themselves" is important to observe. If for example, we lose every game this year, but only by 10 points, it would be a massive improvement, despite the W-L ratio. If we are losing by much smaller averages across the season, but clearly improved in specific areas, then one could expect improvement to continue with wins to follow.
What is more important than previous years, is for the team to be more competitive (and therefore reduce scoring margins). While it has been okay to "get games into the kids" previously, we now need to see those kids and senior players gel and perform better. We need to have moved past the playing just for the sake of experience, and onto trying to win, even if we don't, getting closer than before means exactly that; we are closer.

 

[Forward We Go]

For where we're at, anyone who believes 'wins are all that matters' should probably take another year off and come back later.
The old addage "results will take care of themselves" is important to observe. If for example, we lose every game this year, but only by 10 points, it would be a massive improvement, despite the W-L ratio. If we are losing by much smaller averages across the season, but clearly improved in specific areas, then one could expect improvement to continue with wins to follow.
What is more important than previous years, is for the team to be more competitive (and therefore reduce scoring margins). While it has been okay to "get games into the kids" previously, we now need to see those kids and senior players gel and perform better. We need to have moved past the playing just for the sake of experience, and onto trying to win, even if we don't, getting closer than before means exactly that; we are closer.

Agree Skoob. In addition, does anyone really think that the players & coach's are not going out to win games? I can guarantee all that the disappointment we as supporters may have is almost zero when compared to the disappointment our players/coach's are experiencing week in/week out. They, above all, are the ones that have the challenge in front of them. Support from loyal followers & positive feedback all helps them move forward faster. (although marginal)

 

[lioninthesand]

ill do this exercise again after round 10.

 

[winged1]

ill do this exercise again after round 10.

I said that about running

 

[lioninthesand]

I said that about running

So did Josh green

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

So did Josh green

No, he said after ten subs.

 

[luthor]

No, he said after ten subs.

No, that was before the 10 Subs.

Afterwards..................well................

 

[mikey127]

So did Josh green

Did the story ever get out that at the end of 2016 Green asked for 500k per year from us?

 

[charles202]

Did the story ever get out that at the end of 2016 Green asked for 500k per year from us?

To clarify was this dollars or subs????

 

[chopperduck]

You can see the improvement is there, and there is no doubt the staff has better off field set up with staff and people running the place, as well as a better more talented list then we did 5 years ago, despite the fact that we haven't moved up the ladder. I think it is fair for most supporters who have been around for the past 10-15 years to be fairly stand offish with the current rebuild. We have seen promising signs before, and we have been crushed before. It is only natural to be a lil more harder to win over this time around, despite the signs looking better than ever.

It was interesting to read how much better we have done at the start of the season compared to last year. This kind of thing is good reinforcment for fans as well i think, as it is sometimes very very hard to see these lil wins and improvement. I also agree that realistically, we could have very very easily been 2-3 instead of 0-5 and everyone would be a lot more positive, yet it is the exact same team.

 

[BangyBangy]

Ok, to put this in perspective. No Rocky, no Rich, so easy to put a hard tag on Zorko & nullify him & Beams seems to have been playing injured, yet aside from one game we've been competitive. Our future midfield is emerging & developing nicely (and have all shown that they want to commit long term to the club ). We've improved contested possessions & clearances but disposal, especially going inside 50 is letting us down. As Fagan said in his interview on SEN during the week it's hard to get improvement in all areas with a young group. I don't think I'm a blind optimist, but I really couldn't have asked for much more from the last year and six rounds.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I don't think its realistic to expect anyone who has followed this club over the last decade or so to just completely disregard the continual rebuilds and disappointments. While i can see the positives and am genuinely hopeful that this is it as far as attempts at rebuilding goes, there's still a very large and real voice in the back of my mind that is telling me we've seen this before and it hasn't worked. I don't think theres anything wrong with be a bit reserved in going all in.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...rebuilder-clarkson-draft-20180421-p4zaxv.html

I posted this article in the Over 50’s Clique Thread and it seems to belong in here as well.

 

[Gadzorks]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...rebuilder-clarkson-draft-20180421-p4zaxv.html

I posted this article in the Over 50’s Clique Thread and it seems to belong in here as well.

Love the statement that the Afl should talk to the wooden spoon coach and not just the premiership coach.

The article sums up,our position as a club perfectly. Thanks for posting

 

[Gadzorks]

So if we are going to be permanent bottom four after the introduction of academies/recruiting zones that add bias to ensure the current relative positions is there anything that can be done to keep the game alive in qld?

I like the neafl games as well so having them as permanent curtain raisers would keep me a bit interested and possibly a member. Possibly

What would work for you?

 

[M Malice]

So if we are going to be permanent bottom four after the introduction of academies/recruiting zones that add bias to ensure the current relative positions is there anything that can be done to keep the game alive in qld?

I like the neafl games as well so having them as permanent curtain raisers would keep me a bit interested and possibly a member. Possibly

What would work for you?

If we were perpetually down in the bottom 4 of the ladder with little or no likely hood of ever being in contention?

Now that would be an enigma wrapped in a paradox shrouded in a conundrum, I love Australian Football as a spectacle but if there is no hope what is the point? The journey can be exhilarating but you eventually have to arrive at your destination ie. MCG last Saturday in September.

In saying all that I'd probably still rock up every game day hoping for a miracle on grass much like I do now.

 

[3KZ is Football]

So if we are going to be permanent bottom four after the introduction of academies/recruiting zones that add bias to ensure the current relative positions is there anything that can be done to keep the game alive in qld?

I like the neafl games as well so having them as permanent curtain raisers would keep me a bit interested and possibly a member. Possibly

What would work for you?

In Victoria, it’s attending Fitzroy games and adopting a wait and see approach to Brisbane. I have lowered my expectations and become emotionally less invested. I have a Victorian Family Membership that I probably won’t renew because in the end, attending games with my children provides little by way of entertainment value. This is the real issue for the club. Statistical improvements from one season to the next and the “promise” of a brighter future (like we haven’t heard this one before) isn’t going to cut it in terms of cold hard economics. If Brisbane wants people to invest emotionally and financially in the club then they need to start winning games of football.