Analysis 2018 v 2017 YOY comparison - are we really getting better?

[BigCat2]

Squiggle currently forecasts us 15th on 6 wins, with us as favourites against Gold Coast, Carlton and Essendon.

For the spoon Carlton are clear favourites, with Gold Coast and St Kilda also more likely to spoon than us.

Saw that. Not sure how we're going to get 5 wins out of 11 games.

 

[Saucery]

And the priority /mercy pick. Surely if we finish bottom two we get one after our first pick.

Since gws included 2017 18th, 2016 17, 2015 17, 2014 15, 2014 12, 2012 13. Dismal reading.

Given that we have already stated we are asking for a pp, and gc looking to be circus (especially if the lose lynch) they have to do something for qld.

 

[lioninthesand]

I was watching footy classified last night and they were saying its time to get radical on equalisatuon and preventing teams being out of the finals for 8+ years and to get rid of these endless rebuilds (they gave the example of how primary school aged kids can go through their whole childhood watching their team lose, me) and they were discussing the idea. of.. if you dont make finals for 4 years its an automatic end of first round comp.

I like it.

Let's get radical, rather than this special herbs and spices formular to handing out a PP.

Its tank proof too, because you can't really tank to miss finals, so it doesent encourage you trying to finish bottom 4. Id sign off on that tomorrow if I was the commissioner.

That's not just because of our situation, stuff it, if you are going well you dont have much to worry about because your first rounder is still protected, all it does it push you back in the draft order.

 

[kylegee28]

I was watching footy classified last night and they were saying its time to get radical on equalisatuon and preventing teams being out of the finals for 8+ years and to get rid of these endless rebuilds (they gave the example of how primary school aged kids can go through their whole childhood watching their team lose, me) and they were discussing the idea. of.. if you dont make finals for 4 years its an automatic end of first round comp.

I like it.

Let's get radical, rather than this special herbs and spices formular to handing out a PP.

Its tank proof too, because you can't really tank to miss finals, so it doesent encourage you trying to finish bottom 4. Id sign off on that tomorrow if I was the commissioner.

That's not just because of our situation, stuff it, if you are going well you dont have much to worry about because your first rounder is still protected, all it does it push you back in the draft order.

Is that a priority pick once every four years out of finals or is it a matter of a priority pack every year until you make finals after the fourth?

 

[lioninthesand]

Is that a priority pick once every four years out of finals or is it a matter of a priority pack every year until you make finals after the fourth?

Good question. Every year after 4 years you are out of the finals. Until you are back there. Radical I know, but if a team isnt in the best 45% of the comp for that long, which isnt exactly a world beating effort, it might be needed.

 

[Dylan12]

I was watching footy classified last night and they were saying its time to get radical on equalisatuon and preventing teams being out of the finals for 8+ years and to get rid of these endless rebuilds (they gave the example of how primary school aged kids can go through their whole childhood watching their team lose, me) and they were discussing the idea. of.. if you dont make finals for 4 years its an automatic end of first round comp.

I like it.

Let's get radical, rather than this special herbs and spices formular to handing out a PP.

Its tank proof too, because you can't really tank to miss finals, so it doesent encourage you trying to finish bottom 4. Id sign off on that tomorrow if I was the commissioner.

That's not just because of our situation, stuff it, if you are going well you dont have much to worry about because your first rounder is still protected, all it does it push you back in the draft order.

I'm sure something like that will be introduced when a big team i.e. Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn West Coast, Adelaide, or even a Sydney misses the finals for 3-4 years.

 

[kylegee28]

Good question. Every year after 4 years you are out of the finals. Until you are back there. Radical I know, but if a team isnt in the best 45% of the comp for that long, which isnt exactly a world beating effort, it might be needed.

It's a tricky one but I really wouldn't feel comfortable with the Dee's having priority picks the last two seasons given how close they've been to making finals.

It opens to door to tanking but I'd love to see each round of the draft reduced to 12 picks, with the bottom six getting two picks in the first round, middle six getting two picks in the second round, and top six getting two picks in the third round. Would hopefully force the top sides into trading pretty aggressively to get up the draft order.

 

[spotthedog1]

How many points do they award for .3 of a win these days?

Well, basic maths says 1.2 points, but in reality, the AFL have determined that the value of 0.3 wins depends on a complex formula, unless the result is deemed anomalous, based on any criteria they feel is relevant, such as dollars, dollars, and possibly even dollars.

 

[spotthedog1]

I'm sure something like that will be introduced when a big team i.e. Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn West Coast, Adelaide, or even a Sydney misses the finals for 3-4 years.

Carlton have been out of the finals for 4.5 years now. They're a pretty big team. Of course, it's hard to give them something but not us, given we've been down there longer...

 

[spotthedog1]

I would say we are more a 70% chance of winning the Carlton game. Its at the Gabba and have won 5 out if our last 6 against them.

I like the optimism... But looking at our recent history and our ladder position, I don't think it's realistic to suggest that we have a 2:1 chance of beating anyone at the moment. Even Carlton.

For us and Carlton, I'd cap us at 50% chance of winning for the rest of the year. For St Kilda and Gold Coast, I'd cap them at 60% based on exposed form.

 

[jackess]

Carlton have been out of the finals for 4.5 years now. They're a pretty big team. Of course, it's hard to give them something but not us, given we've been down there longer...

I wonder if they'll give Gold Coast a priority pick to try and entice Lynch to stay.

Again, if they give one to gold coast they should give on to Carlton and us.

 

[spotthedog1]

I wonder if they'll give Gold Coast a priority pick to try and entice Lynch to stay.

Again, if they give one to gold coast they should give on to Carlton and us.

I think if we're spoon, it'll be with 1-3 wins, and they really should give it to us.
I think if we're not spoon, they'll reject it immediately.

Gold Coast is the scary part though. I think if they lose Lynch, then even if we get the spoon, they'll give extra compensation to GC, and then not want to hand out more. GC might end up with picks 3 and 4, plus a bonus pick at EOR1 (based on AFL discretion like how Geelong got extra compo for Ablett leaving). And if QLD teams hold picks 1, 3 and 4, I can't see them giving any more to us. 1, 2, 4, and 5 going to QLD would make Eddie's head explode, and reduce interest in the draft in Victoria. And they won't want to risk that.

 

[M Malice]

We have taken a step forward this year and the best indication is percentage-
2017 round 11- 64%. 2018 round 11- 79.1%.

I have grave concerns re our age profile and the quality gap on our list and what could happen in 2-3 years.

IMO we need to be in contention before our older group of players retire, we are going to have a massive gap in quality on our list as our future experienced group is not up to it by and large ie. Lester, Frost, Bastinac, Bell, C.Beams, Christensen, Walker.

Hodge(34) and Martin(31) have no chance of being around when we are in contention. Zorko(29), Robinson(29), Beams(28) and Rich(28) could all have 3-4 years left, pretty obvious we will need to trade in some A grade level talent in the 24-26 age bracket during the 2018-2020 trade/FA periods or we could fall into a hole again.

We have to make a significant rise up the ladder next season so we need the players in the age bracket just under where the GH5 would have been to take ownership of the team (before their time), which some have this year already. Darcy Gardner, Tom Cutler, Lewis Taylor, Nick Robertson, Daniel McStay, Charlie Cameron, Sam Mayes and Harris Andrews need to take their game to an even higher level.

 

[James North]

We've improved.

Going to games now I feel like we could give any team a bit of a shake (only really two big disappointments this year).

It's still frustrating to watch the turnovers and the fumbles etc, but we manage to stay in most games right until the last quarter.

 

[mish33]

We've improved.

Going to games now I feel like we could give any team a bit of a shake (only really two big disappointments this year).

It's still frustrating to watch the turnovers and the fumbles etc, but we manage to stay in most games right until the last quarter.

Yep, and even the North game wasn't too different in terms of scoring shots, just they nailed almost everything and we missed absolute sitters when it counted.

 

[mikey127]

If someone said at that start of the year that halfway through the season our second biggest loss would be 54 points we would have taken it.

 

[Dalions]

If someone said at that start of the year that halfway through the season our second biggest loss would be 54 points we would have taken it.

Would prefer our second biggest win to have been by 54 points.
But , yeah, I get your point.

 

[dlanod]

Would prefer our second biggest win to have been by 54 points.
But , yeah, I get your point.

Heh you made me go "Oh? How much was our second biggest win actually by...? Oh, yes, that's right. "

You made me sad.

 

[Dalions]

Heh you made me go "Oh? How much was our second biggest win actually by...? Oh, yes, that's right. "

You made me sad.

This makes me sad also!

 

[Jivlain]

Heh you made me go "Oh? How much was our second biggest win actually by...? Oh, yes, that's right. "

You made me sad.

It's like you're completely forgetting our 40-point win over the Giants and even our award-winning 26-point defeat of Sydney.

 

[chopperduck]

We have taken a step forward this year and the best indication is percentage-
2017 round 11- 64%. 2018 round 11- 79.1%.

I have grave concerns re our age profile and the quality gap on our list and what could happen in 2-3 years.

IMO we need to be in contention before our older group of players retire, we are going to have a massive gap in quality on our list as our future experienced group is not up to it by and large ie. Lester, Frost, Bastinac, Bell, C.Beams, Christensen, Walker.

Hodge(34) and Martin(31) have no chance of being around when we are in contention. Zorko(29), Robinson(29), Beams(28) and Rich(28) could all have 3-4 years left, pretty obvious we will need to trade in some A grade level talent in the 24-26 age bracket during the 2018-2020 trade/FA periods or we could fall into a hole again.

We have to make a significant rise up the ladder next season so we need the players in the age bracket just under where the GH5 would have been to take ownership of the team (before their time), which some have this year already. Darcy Gardner, Tom Cutler, Lewis Taylor, Nick Robertson, Daniel McStay, Charlie Cameron, Sam Mayes and Harris Andrews need to take their game to an even higher level.

Probably not going to happen. Club isnt interested in chasing a flag, they want to set the club up for the next 20 years. Club estimates another 3 years before we are playing with the big boys. Thr likes of Beams, Rich, Zorko might snag something in their last season, but eye is to the future.

Think the idea is more so stick with the draft next 2-3 years, then it is our Hips, Harro, Hugh, Berry, Rayner, Witho, all that core that are now 23-26 and 8n prime form, and they are supported by the youngsters we get over they next few drafts. Then is the prime time to bring in those trades or FA players that are 26 or so, and we fill the gaps in the list we need.

 

[chopperduck]

Have to remember how much of an influence Hawks will have on our model. Look at how they went from bottom to top, heaps of top young talent, then suppliment via trade. That was by design, and has worked in keeping Hawks in finals and revelant. That is exactly what they want to do for us.

 

[M Malice]

Probably not going to happen. Club isnt interested in chasing a flag, they want to set the club up for the next 20 years. Club estimates another 3 years before we are playing with the big boys. Thr likes of Beams, Rich, Zorko might snag something in their last season, but eye is to the future.

Think the idea is more so stick with the draft next 2-3 years, then it is our Hips, Harro, Hugh, Berry, Rayner, Witho, all that core that are now 23-26 and 8n prime form, and they are supported by the youngsters we get over they next few drafts. Then is the prime time to bring in those trades or FA players that are 26 or so, and we fill the gaps in the list we need.

Yep, I'm all for that strategy, although purely anecdotally I would say all premiership contending teams have a good core of 3-5 players in the 29+ age bracket in their best 22. IMO we will need to trade in a few who will be entering that age bracket when D.Beams, Zorko, Robinson and Rich are exiting it.

 

[Nunez]

A post my brother and stats nerd made on the Hawks board. Well worth a read:

I think we would all agree that football this season hasn't been the great spectacle that we grew up watching. I spent some time examining the data tonight to see what trends have emerged in recent years to make the game more shit fight than anything else. Some figures include an indicator of the premier. For 2018 I have used league leaders West Coast to make things simple.

Trends:
1. Less Goals Per Game
View attachment 509240
As you can see, there has been a steady decline in goals per game (per side). This trend is the same for premiers and the rest of the comp although premiers still tend to be higher scorers than the league average.

2. Less Marks Inside 50
View attachment 509238
You can see that there has been a steady decline in marks inside 50 since 2006 which correlates with a decline in goals scored. It makes a lot of sense and is likely the direct cause however there is more to the story.

3. Tackles are Up
View attachment 509237
Yep, its pretty hard to kick the ball to a team mate inside fifty when a 90 kg power house is smashing you in a tackle.

4. More Stoppages
View attachment 509236
Stoppages actually reduced from 2002 through to 2006. My thoughts here are that the increased use of the flood (sending numbers into defensive fifty) so the transition between the arcs was increasingly open and football was still being played reasonably direct towards goal. Post 2006 an increasing use of various forms of the press created more congestion and more stoppages.

5. Inside 50s Roughly Constant
View attachment 509235
The number of inside 50s has remained relatively constant over time. There may be a slight increase in recent years but it isn't much in it.

6. Scores Per Inside 50 is Decreasing
View attachment 509231
As you can see, generally the premier is among the top few in efficiency going inside 50 but the league as a whole is finding it hard to score due to the improvement in the defensive side of the game.

7. 2001-2008 Increasing Efficiency Inside 50
View attachment 509233
Sides got better and better at creating improved scoring opportunities inside 50 with the peak in recent history coming in 2008 with the Hawks being the most efficient team in the period by a long way over teams in the same year. You can thank Clarko's Cluster for that as we turned the ball over in the midfield and were able to return the ball back inside 50 to Buddy and Roughy.

8. The Downside...
View attachment 509234
Coaches like Ross 'The Genius' Lyon took the beautiful Cluster and turned it into a press and a rolling scrum that sat around the ball at all times. This extreme focus on defensive structures has made it harder and harder to score despite the same number of inside fifties being conceded.

9. The Problem in 2018
View attachment 509232
Generally under Clarkson we have been very efficient going inside fifty relative to the rest of the comp. This year however....we are bottom three. Clearly this is a large indication that we are either not turning the ball over high enough up the field or lack the quality ball users that set us apart in our peak. Got to find a way to create more scoring shots for all our effort. If we do, we could still be a threat for the flag but based on these figures its hard to see it happening.

I have more to say and a graph or two to add to this but its late and I have an early morning run tomorrow. Ponder this until I can get back online and finish this off

PART2

To summarise above, the league has moved fairly consistently and quickly in the same direction. Even in our peak, Hawthorn may have been the most efficient team but not so much that we were an outlier (2008 possibly excluded). Essentially, defences has progressively focused on congesting the play as evidenced by increased tackles and stoppages. The impact has been less scores per inside 50 and, consequently, less goals per game. But what is the fundamental mechanism at play? I give you disposal efficiency.

10. Disposal Efficiency is on the Decline (Yes, even in our three-pete years it was lower than the past!)
View attachment 509411
That graph represents about a net 8% decrease in disposal efficiency since 2001. A good reason why less goals are kicked and less marks inside 50...its just harder to hit a target (I believe players are more skilful now than in the past).

11. Hawthorn the Best of a Bad Bunch
View attachment 509413
A hallmark of all Hawthorn sides under Clarkson since 2006 is that we are generally at the top of the disposal efficiency distribution regardless of the overall downward trend (with the exception of 2009 and 2010 when we were rubbish and had a stack of injuries). Quite a testament to our recruiting, quality of coaching, strategic approach to football and just general awesomeness. So How have we stayed at the top all this time, even when we haven't been as good?

12. Contested Possessions on the Rise
View attachment 509412
As we can see, contested possessions have increased more or less in line with tackles and clearances, again supporting the idea that increasing congestion has changed the game.

13. Ratio of Contested Possessions to Disposals Has Three Phases
View attachment 509427
2001 to 2005 the ratio of contests to overall disposals was roughly the same as it was now however, as we saw in figure 12, the number of contested possessions was less which means the overall number of of possessions was less. IT was a very watchable period of footy where direct footy to leading CHFs like Tredrea and Brown produced open fields and goals. From 2006 to 2009 teams attempted to use uncontested footy to reduce the impact of the flood employed by teams like Sydney through that period. But as the number of contested possessions increased through 2010 to its current level, the ratio of contested possessions to overall disposals increased again only now teams were still using a lot of uncontested possessions to keep the football and be more strategic in the contests they chose to kick to given typically you are always outnumbered ahead of the ball.

As you have probably already noticed, Hawthorn feature at the bottom of the distribution in almost every season under Clarkson. Clearly his coaching philosophy is to establish a game plan that enables uncontested use of the football but we haven't been as effective in that regard in 2018. The question is, is this fixable in this season or will we need to wait another year to see change? I'd hazard a guess that last year we would not have been sitting in the same position that we finished. Changes can be made but will Clarko pull the trigger or is he playing the long game? More and more this side has looked more like 2010 than 2011 or 2012 so even if changes occur, we may be left a little short while we wait for certain players to mature and for others to join the club.

 

[jackess]

The improvement has been miniscule. Helped by not having injuries