Analysis 2018 v 2017 YOY comparison - are we really getting better?

[spotthedog1]

I think you are way too pessimistic in a lot of your contributions but here, I am in accord with your thinking.

Confidence in the group will be sky high after that terrific away win in Perth but it's what they do with that confidence that's important.

They need to be switched on from the start and approach the game the same way they did in Perth on Sunday. Go and win the first quarter and build from that. We absolutely can't afford a lazy "she'll be right" first quarter lest we do a Freo and find ourselves behind when we least expected it.

Fair enough. I think several posters here are too hopeful, so that makes sense.

It is an interesting balancing act. Confidence can be a great thing or a terrible thing. North earlier this year show that a little confidence can go a long way.

I suppose it comes down to the effect of your confidence. If it causes you to try to win, believing you can, it's good. If it causes you to relax, thinking you've got it in the bag, it's not.

 

[jackess]

Fair enough. I think several posters here are too hopeful, so that makes sense.

It is an interesting balancing act. Confidence can be a great thing or a terrible thing. North earlier this year show that a little confidence can go a long way.

I suppose it comes down to the effect of your confidence. If it causes you to try to win, believing you can, it's good. If it causes you to relax, thinking you've got it in the bag, it's not.

That was a strange leap between the confidence of posters on this board and the confidence of the playing group.

With our performance over the last few weeks I don't think our playing group will be over-confident anytime soon.

 

[luthor]

That was a strange leap between the confidence of posters on this board and the confidence of the playing group.

With our performance over the last few weeks I don't think our playing group will be over-confident anytime soon.

Dunno.

I seem to recall us getting a belting by Port sometime in the last season or two and one of our players subsequently making a statement about us going into the game"overconfident".

THis after a performance the previous week where we didn't even win but had an "honorable" loss.

 

[spotthedog1]

That was a strange leap between the confidence of posters on this board and the confidence of the playing group.

With our performance over the last few weeks I don't think our playing group will be over-confident anytime soon.

The first paragraph was me responding to his comment that he often finds me quite pessimistic. My response being that I think a few people have a bit too high expectations of how well the current iteration of our team could go.

The next two paragraphs were intended to be a completely separate discussion about the confidence of the team. The two sections weren't intended to be linked. Sorry - writing for a forum.

 

[mikey127]

Through 15
Quarters won
2017 18 2018 25
F&A 2017 -561 2018 -165

 

[Dalions]

Through 15
Quarters won
2017 18 2018 25
F&A 2017 -561 2018 -165

A percentage of 88.9 after 15 rounds with only 3 wins and 16th on the ladder.

 

[lioninthesand]

We are better.

 

[luthor]

I think we are getting better.....a lot

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Betterer.

 

[Viceregal]

Betterer.

Fix ya gramma - that is 'more betterer'!

 

[dlanod]

We have the betterest football.

 

[lioninthesand]

Betterestses Everest

 

[lioninthesand]

I'm actually a little loathed to get really excited about a strong back end to the season, because it means nothing IMO, when we come out and go 1-9 again next year. We have done this for the last 7 years, I honestly.. honestly believe we are in the best position we have been in for 13 years, but the real test starts round 1 next year and with us showing the maturity to not crumble when the challange of setting up a season is infront of us. I think this team is ready, though 2020 is when I think we can start muttering the F word

 

[Gadzorks]

I'm actually a little loathed to get really excited about a strong back end to the season, because it means nothing IMO, when we come out and go 1-9 again next year. We have done this for the last 7 years, I honestly.. honestly believe we are in the best position we have been in for 13 years, but the real test starts round 1 next year and with us showing the maturity to not crumble when the challange of setting up a season is infront of us. I think this team is ready, though 2020 is when I think we can start muttering the F word

It’s interesting if we win a bunch of games again this year in the back half. Almost looks like a juniors game where the kids hold back in the first half cause they are worried about having the legs in the second half. Need to trust that they can go out hard and find a way to hang on.

 

[lioninthesand]

It’s interesting if we win a bunch of games again this year in the back half. Almost looks like a juniors game where the kids hold back in the first half cause they are worried about having the legs in the second half. Need to trust that they can go out hard and find a way to hang on.

We need to topple some big dogs, I reckon we win of the next 2

 

[Back2Back2Back]

It's certainly doable. I reckon coming off two solid wins, and having the win over Hawthorn earlier this year with a similar lead to the last two, we stand a really good chance going after a 3rd win in a row. And in the next week, Adelaide's going to be coming to us after having a slog with Geelong, so that one's got a bit of a chance about it too.

 

[TheHairyGamer]

I'm actually a little loathed to get really excited about a strong back end to the season, because it means nothing IMO, when we come out and go 1-9 again next year. We have done this for the last 7 years, I honestly.. honestly believe we are in the best position we have been in for 13 years, but the real test starts round 1 next year and with us showing the maturity to not crumble when the challange of setting up a season is infront of us. I think this team is ready, though 2020 is when I think we can start muttering the F word

Absolutely agree. I feel the rest of this year should be working on who is starting 22 round 1 of next year, while still trying to win as many as possible of course. Might see another debutant or 2 in the back half of the year. Hodge will probably sit out 1 more game this year I would imagine, so will be interesting to see who we bring in for him that week. Little things like that

 

[lioninthesand]

Absolutely agree. I feel the rest of this year should be working on who is starting 22 round 1 of next year, while still trying to win as many as possible of course. Might see another debutante or 2 in the back half of the year. Hodge will probably sit out 1 more game this year I would imagine, so will be interesting to see who we bring in for him that week. Little things like that

Yep. I think we can really build something special over the next 7 weeks, but only if we knock over a few teams we arn't expected to too. Dont want this form to turn into losing 6 or the next 7 with honorable loses and us beating GC. Not getting carried away, we are still underdogs, but lets see if we can ACTUALLY cement something special for next season and avoid loses like North in round 23 last year.

I rate the remaining games like this

Winnable
Hawks
Crows
North
Suns

I would hope us to jag one of the following
West coast
pies
Cats

I know some will say the the 3 above is getting ahead of myself, but If we are to walk away feeling very upbeat about this year, then we need to win 2 of the winnable games and jag one of the harder 3.

Not saying if we don't the season is a write off, I think we are all pretty pleased generally, that's just what we need to do to give this season a huge tick and not just have it be the mandatory, flog some teams that are already in holiday mode int he back end of the season and it be another 4 win season.

Come on boys surprise us with a rip roaring 7 game run home stretch.

 

[mikey127]

Should we be closing this thread now?

 

[Dalions]

Last 8 rounds since we started winning.
Average points against 82.25
Average points for 93.25
Percentage 113.37%

 

[jackess]

Last 8 rounds since we started winning.
Average points against 82.25
Average points for 93.25
Percentage 113.37%

Imagine if we were sitting with a percentage of 113 after the first 8 rounds

 

[Jivlain]

These are H&A only but you can see that big run from Richmond towards the end of last season. Hawthorn's dominating and falling back to the pack. Essendon being terrible with the drug drama and suspesnsions and then returning to midtable. Carlton and Gold Coast being depressing.

And us...

 

[deklares]

Imagine if we were sitting with a percentage of 113 after the first 8 rounds

If only we won more first quarters. We do finish of games strongly though which is great.

Quarters Won

Q1 - 2
Q2 - 6
Q3 - 8
Q4 - 10

 

[luthor]

If only we won more first quarters. We do finish of games strongly though which is great.

Quarters Won

Q1 - 2
Q2 - 6
Q3 - 8
Q4 - 10

Strength and conditioning staff take a bow.

10 last quarter wins out of 16 is outstanding, especially for a side that is near the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Dalions]

View attachment 527580 View attachment 527582 View attachment 527583 View attachment 527584 View attachment 527585
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These are H&A only but you can see that big run from Richmond towards the end of last season. Hawthorn's dominating and falling back to the pack. Essendon being terrible with the drug drama and suspesnsions and then returning to midtable. Carlton and Gold Coast being depressing.

And us...

Love these graphs Jiv shows us all what most are thinking and now believing.