2019/20 NBA Season

NonPhixion

Blades & Shades
Mar 27, 2018
1,869
1,860
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Having some success atm looking at Pointsbet promos then betting against them.
They've got some stats savant working for them who lists too good to be true promos that almost always fail.
Eg. today they had Jokic 20+pts, 5+rb, 5+ assists for $3.
Looking across his history against similar lineups without Murray/Millsap he tends to get limited assists so have gone
u5.5ass @ 3.50 SB

This is a theory in progress and could be totally flop but will post again (next time before the tip ;))
pointsbet always seem to be on the right end of too good to be true promos haha. Good pick up.
I’ve been pretty patient but finally got a play that caught my eye.
3U Aaron Gordon O6.5 Rebounds @2.02 - SB
Covered the line 21/37. Charlotte have statistically improved in terms of giving up offensive rebounds, but they are still ranked 22nd. Gl if you decide to tail
 

NYRB

All Australian
Oct 6, 2011
788
259
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
New England Patriots, Perth Glory
Couple of interesting bets tonight:

Z Williamson 20+ points/New Orleans wins $6.50
Z Williamson 8+ Rebounds/New Orleans wins $4
Z Williamson Double Double $7.50
 

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NonPhixion

Blades & Shades
Mar 27, 2018
1,869
1,860
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
geez got a bit of a following, now I have to deliver haha
Let’s exploit that Atlanta D again... different method this time
3u Kyle Lowry O6.5 Assists @1.85 - SB
Covered 21/35. Now there is a chance that he could be benched for most of the last 1/4 due to having a big lead but I can easily see him covering this line by the end of the 3rd.
phenomenal passer that torches bad defences
just like the great Sun Tzu said “strike at what is weak”
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
995
1,259
AFL Club
Essendon
geez got a bit of a following, now I have to deliver haha
Let’s exploit that Atlanta D again... different method this time
3u Kyle Lowry O6.5 Assists @1.85 - SB
Covered 21/35. Now there is a chance that he could be benched for most of the last 1/4 due to having a big lead but I can easily see him covering this line by the end of the 3rd.
phenomenal passer that torches bad defences
just like the great Sun Tzu said “strike at what is weak”
11. BANG
 

NonPhixion

Blades & Shades
Mar 27, 2018
1,869
1,860
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Ok ive given this one some thought & decided to pull the trigger
2U Buddy Hield O17.5 Points @1.98 - SB
Covered 69.5% this year, so it almost seems like a trap. The only reason I can think of is because he was benched for a couple games recently due to underperforming, however he is coming off a career high game (42) so it would be a real strange coaching move to do that tomorrow.
Have some fun with it...
0.5U Hield 31+ @19 - TAB
only 4/46, but i think hes playing with a point to prove atm.
You could probably wait till tomorrow when SB open there alt points markets as it will probably be better odds ^ but im happy to take this now just in case of line movement.
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
995
1,259
AFL Club
Essendon
Tiny tail on the 31+ Buddy.
Gonna keep rolling with the some recent regular winners.
Westbrick u0.5 3pt @$2.50 TAB (0 makes from 1 attempt last 4 games)
D. Brooks 20+ @$2.20 BE (9/13 and playing Knicks)

aaaand just cos i love the man and he playing an undermanned Bulls
Sabonis 14+ boards $2.25 (Tab)
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,120
1,513
AFL Club
Adelaide
NonPhixion should consider giving kissing advice like Urnie. This thread can't gain traction
Ok ive given this one some thought & decided to pull the trigger
2U Buddy Hield O17.5 Points @1.98 - SB
Covered 69.5% this year, so it almost seems like a trap. The only reason I can think of is because he was benched for a couple games recently due to underperforming, however he is coming off a career high game (42) so it would be a real strange coaching move to do that tomorrow.
Have some fun with it...
0.5U Hield 31+ @19 - TAB
only 4/46, but i think hes playing with a point to prove atm.
You could probably wait till tomorrow when SB open there alt points markets as it will probably be better odds ^ but im happy to take this now just in case of line movement.
Being 'benched' isn't that big a deal assuming he's still closing games out and playing 30+ mins. Look at Lou Williams scoring as an example

It's just arrogant yanks who don't want to be benched because they're above it. From a betting perspective, it shouldn't matter much. He'll get his shots up & even play with a chip on his shoulder if he is.

You've done well this season. Just need some kissing advice to rival Urnie as a top poster on here :tearsofjoy:
 

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NonPhixion

Blades & Shades
Mar 27, 2018
1,869
1,860
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
NonPhixion should consider giving kissing advice like Urnie. This thread can't gain traction

Being 'benched' isn't that big a deal assuming he's still closing games out and playing 30+ mins. Look at Lou Williams scoring as an example

It's just arrogant yanks who don't want to be benched because they're above it. From a betting perspective, it shouldn't matter much. He'll get his shots up & even play with a chip on his shoulder if he is.

You've done well this season. Just need some kissing advice to rival Urnie as a top poster on here :tearsofjoy:
the Urn & NP have moved in different directions. Most of my ‘fun’ was had in my teenage years. Now going on almost a 12 month dry spell and Im starting to think their may be some sort of correlation to my punting activities.
I can only hope to someday achieve the legendary status of the great Urnie
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,120
1,513
AFL Club
Adelaide
the Urn & NP have moved in different directions. Most of my ‘fun’ was had in my teenage years. Now going on almost a 12 month dry spell and Im starting to think their may be some sort of correlation to my punting activities.
I can only hope to someday achieve the legendary status of the great Urnie
Show them your NBA betting prowess. I'm sure that's a panty dropper...

Or ask the Urn for more tailored advice? I'm sure he can help
 

NonPhixion

Blades & Shades
Mar 27, 2018
1,869
1,860
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Alright got a ripper for the lads
4U Paul George 3+ three’s @1.80 TAB
has covered 21/28 so far. Have no explanation for this crazy line...
Line will surely tighten before game-time
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
995
1,259
AFL Club
Essendon
Feel like i'm missing something here, please tell me....
Simmons 16.5+ points @1.77 SB
Has covered his last 10/10 and 14/15.
5 of those games Embiid was playing and he covered it every time.
 

NonPhixion

Blades & Shades
Mar 27, 2018
1,869
1,860
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Feel like i'm missing something here, please tell me....
Simmons 16.5+ points @1.77 SB
Has covered his last 10/10 and 14/15.
5 of those games Embiid was playing and he covered it every time.
id tread carefully with this one Junior. He's covering just under 50% for the year although in good recent form.
Miami have a good D too. ranked 5th for Fewest OPP FGM
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
995
1,259
AFL Club
Essendon
id tread carefully with this one Junior. He's covering just under 50% for the year although in good recent form.
Miami have a good D too. ranked 5th for Fewest OPP FGM
Cheers NP.
Yeah I do like to cherry pick recent stats don't I. Which is why I'm a little hesitant on the PG 3pt bet.
But as opposed to other markets, the NBA seems to weigh season and career averages more heavily than other sports. This probably has something todo with the amount of games (sample size) but i think it lends itself to some opportunities to identify trends and changes in player form, particularly young players who might have found some development.
Cue Ben going <10pts. :padlock:
 

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