I think you are 100% correct. The Broncos are having one of their worst seasons ever and the crowds reflect that.
2019 AFL Crowds & Ratings Thread
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I think you are 100% correct. The Broncos are having one of their worst seasons ever and the crowds reflect that.
abcde12345
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Apologies for the tangent, just thought it was worth mentioning.
Compare this to the situation NRL has been in up here:
QLD has only lost Origin 3 times since the 2004 (including an 8-peat, and never twice in a row).
The Broncos have only missed finals twice since 1991, and have won a premiership
The Cowboys have made finals 9 times since 2004, including a premiership.
The Storm (probably more popular at least in Brisbane than the Titans) have been one of the most successful on-field sporting teams in Australia over the same time frame, having only missed finals once in that time frame (where they were stripped of all points due to salary cap breaching, and had a win-loss record to place them 5th, meaning they would not have missed finals at all if not for the breach). They have also won the premiership 4 times (including the stripped premierships).
The Titans are the only team that you could really consider mediocre that is relevant up here, and they have still made the finals triple the amount of times that the Lions and Suns have combined since the end of 2004 (despite the fact the Titans weren't even admitted into the comp until 2007).
For a more direct comparison, since 2004, the Broncos, Titans, Cowboys and Storm combined have missed the finals 17 times. The Lions alone have missed finals 14 times during that period.
If the Lions were still around after all that, then I don't think there should be much fear around their existence with the introduction of another NRL team. Frankly, in my opinion it is quite impressive that the Lions were able to retain as many fans in that period as they did considering what the competition was offering up here, and I think that clearly bodes well if they can manage to keep their act together and at least be reasonable on-field over an extended period (especially when you factor in things like the Gabba refurbishment and the cross-river rail coming in).
Semi-competitive is definitely the key. Can't be emphasised how much further along football could be up here if the lions hadn't been complete garbage for so long in such a competitive landscape. Since 2004 the Lions have made finals once, while the Suns have obviously had 0 on-field success.
Compare this to the situation NRL has been in up here:
QLD has only lost Origin 3 times since the 2004 (including an 8-peat, and never twice in a row).
The Broncos have only missed finals twice since 1991, and have won a premiership
The Cowboys have made finals 9 times since 2004, including a premiership.
The Storm (probably more popular at least in Brisbane than the Titans) have been one of the most successful on-field sporting teams in Australia over the same time frame, having only missed finals once in that time frame (where they were stripped of all points due to salary cap breaching, and had a win-loss record to place them 5th, meaning they would not have missed finals at all if not for the breach). They have also won the premiership 4 times (including the stripped premierships).
The Titans are the only team that you could really consider mediocre that is relevant up here, and they have still made the finals triple the amount of times that the Lions and Suns have combined since the end of 2004 (despite the fact the Titans weren't even admitted into the comp until 2007).
For a more direct comparison, since 2004, the Broncos, Titans, Cowboys and Storm combined have missed the finals 17 times. The Lions alone have missed finals 14 times during that period.
If the Lions were still around after all that, then I don't think there should be much fear around their existence with the introduction of another NRL team. Frankly, in my opinion it is quite impressive that the Lions were able to retain as many fans in that period as they did considering what the competition was offering up here, and I think that clearly bodes well if they can manage to keep their act together and at least be reasonable on-field over an extended period (especially when you factor in things like the Gabba refurbishment and the cross-river rail coming in).
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One thing that helps us is the fact the Bronx play almost every Thursday and Friday nights.
Even a Sunday 4.40pm game ending around 7.15pm is a much more family friendly timeslot than a Thursday 7.55pm game that ends around 9.45pm on a school night. We'd be the only team in the eastern states that would pull a crowd in that slot when competitive
Even a Sunday 4.40pm game ending around 7.15pm is a much more family friendly timeslot than a Thursday 7.55pm game that ends around 9.45pm on a school night. We'd be the only team in the eastern states that would pull a crowd in that slot when competitive
I feel the Hawthorn V Collingwood crowd is about 2-3,000 over my expected crowd. I was thinking early 60,000’s.. I indicated a few weeks back that the Essendon V Hawthorn game at Marvel would draw upwards of 65,000 at the MCG (as per this week). I still believe this would have been the case and the Collingwood game this week is a similar crowd scenario.
Collingwood are going better than Essendon. Hawthorn not going quite as well. Great weather. I will go with 63,000.
Essendon v Sydney will draw well. People forget Essendon drew huge crowds in the late 1990’s and would draw similarly again now. This is 10 v 12.. Albeit it has more riding on it than the ladder positions suggest. But it’s not 3 v 4! If it draws over 50,000 that would be an enormous crowd. Ticket sales look better than the recent Essendon v Brisbane crowd as of Tuesday night (48,294 went in round 4). Further confidence of a big crowd, my entire family are going to the match... 6 people including grandkids (they also went in round 4). They never go to Marvel.. The MCG effect is significant. On this basis I expect a strong crowd on Saturday. It could be 50,000 after all.
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So he days of the NRL being the most viewed football code are long gone!They will be shattered over at LU.
And a few of our friends around here!
After his crowing about the ratings last year, l'll be waiting for Roy Master's article on this ... and waiting ... and waiting ...
If those the Carlton and Melbourne crowd feels about right weather permitting. The Hawthorn / Collingwood and Essendon / Sydney crowds would be huge crowds. The latter one being one of those statement crowds I reckon if it reaches 55,000.
By and large Essendon v Sydney crowds have sold out, or gone very close to selling out Docklands routinely haven't they?
Surprisingly Essendon v Sydney is not a fixture that is regularly scheduled in Victoria...
Round 19 2018 - Essendon v Sydney 42,251 at Docklands
Round 9 2014 - Essendon v Sydney 41,098 at Docklands
Round 11 2012 - Essendon v Sydney 42,785 at Docklands
Round 20 2011 - Essendon v Sydney 38,722 at Docklands
Round 1 2006 - Essendon v Sydney 45,355 at Docklands
Round 19 2015 - Essendon v Sydney 41,629 at Docklands
Round 6 2004 - Essendon v Sydney 38,946 at the MCG
Round 19 2001 - Essendon v Sydney 45,096 at Docklands
Round 3 1999 - Essendon v Sydney 50,023 at the MCG
Round 11 1998 - Essendon v Sydney 62,822 at the MCG
So its pretty reasonable to deduce that Essendon v Sydney is mid / high level drawing fixture in Victoria. In fact if Essendon was an MCG tenant club again its likely that Essendon v Sydney would probably be one of those quota games that get shifted to Docklands
But if you look at lower drawing fixtures I think the gap is much less pronounced.
A good example is Hawthorn v West Coast fixtures, and bare in mind that Hawthorn as an MCG tenant club supposedly has the same issues with Docklands attendances that Collingwood, Richmond and Melbourne have...
Round 15 2019 - Hawthorn v West Coast 31,895 at the MCG
Round 10 2018 - Hawthorn v West Coast 28,077 at Docklands
Round 5 2017 - Hawthorn v West Coast 28,997 at the MCG
Round 2 2016 - Hawthorn v West Coast 42,977 at the MCG (GF replay)
Round 13 2013 - Hawthorn v West Coast 32,567 at Docklands
Round 23 2012 - Hawthorn v West Coast 50,023 at the MCG
Round 14 2008 - Hawthorn v West Coast 29,138 at the MCG
Round 14 2006 - Hawthorn v West Coast 21,929 at the MCG
Round 8 2001 - Hawthorn v West Coast 22,988 at the MCG
Round 5 1999 - Hawthorn v West Coast 27,370 at Waverley Park
32,563 at the MCG
30,322 at Docklands
27,370 at Waverley Park (a dinosaur from the past)
Would be interesting to see if the disparity between MCG and Docklands crowds are similar for other MCG tenant clubs across historically lower drawing fixtures.
I doubt that St Kilda / North / Bulldogs games would get a sizeable bounce from being played at the MCG instead of Docklands unless they are playing Collingwood or Essendon who have huge MCC AND AFL membership bases
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It's actually lazy journalism.
Take out the Mothers Day and are any of those attendances actually poor?
Round 2 v W Bulldogs 39,398 at MCG (3.20pm on Sunday)
Round 3 v North Melbourne 36,175 at the MCG (3.20pm on Sunday)
Round 4 v St Kilda 35,883 at Docklands (3.20pm on Sunday)
Round 5 v Geelong 66,347 at the MCG (3.20pm on Easter Monday)
Round 7 v Melbourne 40,864 at the MCG (1.45pm on Saturday)
Round 8 v GWS 14,634 at the MCG (3.20pm on Mothers Day Sunday)
Round 9 v Richmond 64,935 at the MCG (3.20pm on Sunday)
Round 13 v Essendon 44,846 at Docklands (7.45pm on Friday)
Round 15 v West Coast 31,895 at the MCG (1.45pm on Saturday)
Round 16 v Collingwood (MCC forecast is 66,000) (7.45pm on Friday)
Hawthorn is 15th and have played in 6 Sunday twilight games, in the circumstances I think the Melbourne based crowds have held up quite well to be honest.
And of those games just the North Melbourne (8,914) and GWS (7,578) games are notably lower than the 3 game average.
Even with the GWS game which sparked the articles, Hawthorn drew a terrible MCG crowd against them when they were at the height of their powers (17,906 in 2014) in the same season they drew 43,583 and 72,764 against Fremantle and Sydney.
Given the circumstances I think those numbers represent significant growth on where Hawthorn was during their last mediocre cycle (2003-2006).
Teams peak and trough all the time, this is hardly a new phenomena. It's something that has been spoken about often in this thread as well as past threads
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abcde12345
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It's easy for it to "look bad" because the data is flooded with low drawing Tasmania games unless you actually get into the detail.
Hawthorn has an average home crowd this season of 30,849. Excluding the Tasmania games, this jumps up almost 7,000 to 37,684. This puts it behind only Richmond, Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon for home crowds.
If you exclude the GWS game (which is a clear outlier), they have averages another 6,000 per game at 43,446.
Considering the fact Hawthorn have been so poor this season, and that is significantly different from the norm, then I think as far as Melbourne crowds go they have been very strong (except the obvious GWS game).
I agree but its difficult to make a comparison with the Big 4 given we play those low drawing games in Tasmania (including one against Carlton but that's for another conversation!) so that naturally inflates our Melbourne based attendances at the remaining games.
I can only compare Hawthorn's attendances against its past attendance, every club is in a different cycle, but I think Hawthorn is holding up well.
Up until 2007 it was extremely rare for Hawthorn to ever play in front of 55,000 home or away, in a poor season they could have 4 60k+ games in the one season (4 out of 13 Melbourne based games) which in itself suggests significant growth.
Hawthorn as a club is in a period of transition. They made the finals in 2016 and 2018 (and went out in straight sets both times) and finished 12th / 14th in 2017 and 2019.
They are not the club they were in 2007-2015, they are no longer a premiership contender and this is reflected in attendance, membership and exposure
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Yes correct. This Marvel crowds around the 42,000 mark are basically the sell outs in recent years. In the early - mid 2000’s there were a few around 45,000+ in the era before Essendon significantly increased the sales of season allocated seats. This meant there were more tickets available to the public in those years so less member ‘no shows’ impacting the overall attendance.
Hawks v Pies will be 70k. What the MCG can’t predict is how many members will actually turn up. Hawks fans will turn out to see us beat the Pies for the 12th time from the last 13 games. This fixture usually punches above its weight.
Love the optimism!
Hawks v Pies for about a decade was (almost) a bankable 70,000 draw.
It’s been on the wane in recent years though, it hasn’t passed 60,000 since 75,880 went in 2015 (52,968, 54,494, 56,594 and 58,208 since)
The round 1 game last year was probably the most disappointing Hawks v Pies turnout for 15 years (given it was a season opening game in prime time)
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Mr Taswegian
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I'm heading to the big game in Hobart on Sunday,it should get a crowd of at least 13000,considering the perfect weather forecast.
Hi Wookie is there ongoing tracking of streaming AFL matches on phones and devices?
I been to functions where it seems half the people are watching on and off the footy on their devices.
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Is it possible you could provide peak audience numbers for Friday night matches, I’ve notice you’ve been doing them for NRL.
It is possible they are only provided at broadcasters consent
When they are released, the AFL inevitably has a proportionally higher reach and usually peak than the NRL because the game goes for longer. The use of averages warps the comparison between the AFL and NRL
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