AFL 2019 - AFL FINALS Week 1

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Slippers

Norm Smith Medallist
May 25, 2012
5,338
5,579
AFL Club
Richmond
Think bris just win. Tiges renowned non travellers. Could be wrong but don't think tiges have beaten a top 8 interstate team away since rd 14 2017.
If u want to go with these fancy travel stats we have beaten Brisbane the last 13 times 6 of them being at the gabba
 

TheScream

Senior List
Jul 19, 2016
197
158
AFL Club
GWS
Geelong v Pies total is so low. I know the rain is forecast and its a final but 143.5?

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
They're also the two best defensive sides in the comp, and usually when that happens it's a slower tempo. Wouldn't want to be on the over but also think the value has gone from the under (started at 152). Possibly still value in Neither team to score 90 in a multi
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,254
3,400
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Haha sportsbet you can bet on crowd size I took under 59,600 $1.88 for a laugh hoping a few don't show up on a school night lolll.. anyone got an actual good prediction on this,? I can't be bothered going through their crowds each week,did see it was 55ish v Hawks edit: I took a look didn't reach 59,000 in home derby or vs pies so put a little on under 59 at $5
Only had 2 finals games v melb and pies. both around the 59,600 mark.
Record at the ground 61,000

Edit: Liking the under 59,400 at 3.25.
Official crowd: 59,216 at Optus Stadium

 

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,238
1,232
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
couple more:
Thomas AGS @2 B365 - covered 14/20 including the last 5. Going against my rule of backing Geelong oppo forwards but conditions should suit him too
Finlayson 2+ @2.75, 3+ @7 SB - dogs defence is questionable, I got a feeling the Giants talls will do damage. Finlayson seems to be the most value

Degenerate multi - De Goey 2+, Kelly, Adams & Pendles 20+ @2.80
 
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demon_fanatic

Club Legend
May 8, 2006
2,077
479
bayswater
AFL Club
Melbourne
I'm on accu weather which is pretty accurate hour by hour and they have the big rain around 3-6pm and game time OK apart from a little shower around 9pm (1mm) I'll wait and see if bookies drop it to 139ish from 142 when the rain hits this arvo then I might play the over,so much talent attacking wise on each team I think it will go 80-70ish score as the MCG surface drains well
 

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,238
1,232
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Which team out of Geel and Coll are better in the wet?
Been thinking about this for the last couple days. I'm leaning towards it being an advantage for Collingwood. Geelong do love a slow grind, but I think if its wet it will force Collingwood into playing faster footy instead of chipping around & trying to switch to the open side which doesn't work well against Geelong, they are the best setting up behind the ball. Should also play into the hands of a mobile forward line with only 1 genuine tall.
 

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,238
1,232
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
is the weather going to clear up?
looks like its probably going to clear up by the time of the first bounce. Feel like the low total has created some value in goal scorer markets.
Going Ablett 2+ @2.40 SB. I know ill probably regret this bet but the odds on WHE to kick some goals are pretty outrageous imo.
2+ @5.50
3+ @21
4+ @101
sb
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,017
772
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
1u Dangerfield ags @1.60 b365 (covered 17/22)
1u Miers ags @1.72 b365 (covered 16/22)
1u WHE ags @2.00 b365 (now into 1.80)
tailing the Thomas and kelly ags picks too 1u each.

adding 1u sgm - Selwood25+, pendles 20+, danger20+, hawkins ags @3.60 SB
 
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Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,017
772
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
rain might come at half time i heard on game preview on the radio... thoughts on going higher scoring on the first half?
edit: put 1u on first half highest @1.98 sb
 
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NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,238
1,232
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
looks like its probably going to clear up by the time of the first bounce. Feel like the low total has created some value in goal scorer markets.
Going Ablett 2+ @2.40 SB. I know ill probably regret this bet but the odds on WHE to kick some goals are pretty outrageous imo.
2+ @5.50
3+ @21
4+ @101
sb
Bit like the England cricket team.
Swing & a miss
 

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