AFL 2019 - AFL Finals Week 2

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mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
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Perth
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Hawthorn
Interesting scenario where I rate GWS and WC as better sides than Bris and Geel, but finished lower on the ladder.

I'll go with the teams with momentum, think GWS has got far more elite players and if they shut down Cameron I think they'll struggle to kick a decent score. Couple of weeks ago WC were 5 goals up on Rich before it rained and the Tigers are flying. Think Geel will struggle and they'll get massacred in the ruck with Nic Nat back. 0.5u GWS -7.5 and 1u WC -3.5.
 

benji21

Team Captain
Apr 2, 2016
576
305
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Fremantle
Really liking WC. No HGA for Geelong. Would almost say WC are more suited to playing at the MCG.
The other game Brisbane should win, but GWS have found some form late.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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Interesting scenario where I rate GWS and WC as better sides than Bris and Geel, but finished lower on the ladder.

I'll go with the teams with momentum, think GWS has got far more elite players and if they shut down Cameron I think they'll struggle to kick a decent score. Couple of weeks ago WC were 5 goals up on Rich before it rained and the Tigers are flying. Think Geel will struggle and they'll get massacred in the ruck with Nic Nat back. 0.5u GWS -7.5 and 1u WC -3.5.
People always get sucked into the week 1 winners with the momentum argument - I'll go with the tried and trusted method of multi-ing the prelim final losers playing at home :thumbsu:
 

ronpingwins

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Apr 1, 2013
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Over the last 5 years the QF loser has been bundled out in straight sets 50% of the time. 5-5 record in the semis, so it's not that rare although go back further and it's much more infrequent. The only game people have been sucked in by momentum in recent years was Geelong/Sydney 2017 where the Swans were massive favourites.
 

mookieb

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Oct 4, 2006
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Some big outs with injury. Reckon Duncan and Rohan miss for Geel. De Goey and Greenwood out (Greenwood for the season De Goey probably as well. Robinson's done a hammy which will hurt because I think de Boer will probably blanket Neale leaving their midfield to potentially struggle.

Rich, WC and GWS relatively unscathed.

GWS might be some value. Coniglio might return this week or next which on my count would give them 6 elite players (Davis, Cameron, Greene, Coniglio, Whitfield and Kelly). They have been historically terrible at the MCG though. If they get through Bris they will face Coll with a few players out (Greenwood and De Goey) plus the rest of their injuries which are pretty significant - Beams, Langdon, Cox and Reid.

GWS / Rich quinella is $10 and GWS / WC is $34.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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I give GWS close to zero of getting past Collingwood at the MCG in a prelim - even if they do manage to win this week. Greenwood is entirely replaceable and the pies managed to get past the Cats ok (far tougher MCG opposition) with JDG
 

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NonPhixion

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Mar 27, 2018
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GWS have to be the bookies favourite team. Been saying it for ages, but betting on their games are a trap, don’t know how anyone can be confident betting either team tbh.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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Sportsbet offering double your winnings in bonus bets (max $50) on H2H Bets
TAB has bonus bet refund if you lead by 6 at any break and lose

Back one at sportsbet and the other at TAB and you basically can't lose once you include the bonus bets received (you end up massively in front if the TAB team leads by 6 and loses)
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
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989
Perth
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GWS have to be the bookies favourite team. Been saying it for ages, but betting on their games are a trap, don’t know how anyone can be confident betting either team tbh.
GWS tend to be very flaky. They are often a bit of a rabble when they lose key players, whereas a team like Rich pulled out some fantastic wins undermanned on the road (Freo and Port).

What they do have though is a huge amount of talent. With Coniglio not far away they will be close to full strength and it's a team with superstars spread out across the field. If they get on a run they might be dangerous coming up against Bris (I consider GWS the far superior team) and potentially Coll who have been injured ravaged and will be missing some guns.

Their "worst" midfielder is De Boer (Kelly, Whitfield, Coniglio - elite and Taranto - good) yet if he shuts down the opposition key playmaker he is potentially the most valuable.

I'm not a massive GWS fan boy and they are terrible at the MCG, but they've got heaps of talent and they will be hard to beat if they get on a roll.
 

benji21

Team Captain
Apr 2, 2016
576
305
AFL Club
Fremantle
Anyone with thoughts on crowd attendance? over 58,000 is 3.50. Last time Geelong played WC at MCG was a Prelim and it was 59,455.
Against it is Prelims would normally have more . For it is this weekend there's only the 1 game at the G.
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
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Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
1u petruccelli ags @2.10 sb (covered 12/19) (into 1.62)
1u waterman ags @1.87 b365 (covered 8/12)
0.7u T.Kelly ags @2.65 b365 (covered 15/24)
1u McCluggage ags @1.72 sb (covered 17/22). again

1u petruccelli 2g+ @4.33 SB value if he does play fwd pocket
0.5u petruccelli 3g+ @14 SB
 
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