Review 2019 AFL National Draft

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the big lebowski

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 4, 2006
8,751
13,680
The hood
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Thanks for that. Interesting that comben seems to have a better leap than Jackson, who has been described as a high leaping ruckman, making up for being slightly shorter than most ruckmen.

Also, having poor (average) endurance should probably be expected given how much footy he missed, but really does point to some upside. And lastly, contested aspects being above average for a bean pole is also encouraging (though the position he plays lends itself to winning contested footy).
 

Event Horizon

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 24, 2002
19,377
8,075
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Victory
After reading all the criticism regarding our selections, I've been thinking as to why this negativity is there, despite us not having greatest of picks to work with in an even draft. I reckon if a club with a gun recruiter with a great track record selects, say a Flynn Perez, everyone would simply be saying that they got him at a bargain basement price due to the 12 months absence from the game, and he will probably turn out a gun. But given Finnigan doesn't have track record of this type, negativity is there, and it's understandable.

Only time will tell...
 

Rusty Buckets

Senior List
Oct 11, 2019
278
457
AFL Club
North Melbourne
After reading all the criticism regarding our selections, I've been thinking as to why this negativity is there, despite us not having greatest of picks to work with in an even draft. I reckon if a club with a gun recruiter with a great track record selects, say a Flynn Perez, everyone would simply be saying that they got him at a bargain basement price due to the 12 months absence from the game, and he will probably turn out a gun. But given Finnigan doesn't have track record of this type, negativity is there, and it's understandable.

Only time will tell...
We did have a decent pick ... pick 8
 

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shinboner magic

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 17, 2007
11,325
11,116
melb home of the kangas
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
hellas,liverpool,storm,au
Wells turned back the clock.

Turned Kelly into Cooper Stephens, Sam De Koning and Cam Taheney.

They also hold 3 x first rounders next year including a locked in #11, which may end up better than the Melbourne pick.
We were within touching distance of getting that puck 11 - cats just got lucky
 

RobZombie

Premium Platinum
May 18, 2012
6,667
17,045
Back In Town
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Jays, Leafs
In the same vein, I've noticed over the last couple of drafts we've been more aggressive with delistings (Mountford, Hibberd, Hrovat, Wagner, Hartung etc.) and trades (Clarke), while punting more on 'upside' of draftees. It's like we are very conscious that the draft is a lottery and the strategy is to get as many tickets as possible hoping to luck into 'steals' and quickly cycle through the guys that are just ok. Then we also pick guys who are more 'unknown' due to injury (Simpkin, Comben, Perez, Mahony), being off the radar (NEAFL) or code-switching (Walker). If it doesn't work out, just take another speculative 3rd round pick in 2 years. If it does, you've got a bargain and a keeper. Not a bad approach in my view as long as all the young guys coming through know where they stand.
I've thought for a little while now that injury is our Moneyball, as in an actual definition of moneyball as players who are systematically undervalued by the market for some reason. Whether it pays off or not, it seems to be a consistent philosophy over the last half dozen years. Higgins, Waite, Hrovat, Ahern, Anderson, Brown, Hayden, Simpkin, Zurhaar, Bonar, Mitch Hibberd, this year's 3 draftees - all had their draft or market value depressed by a history of injury.

Actual Moneyball is pretty rare in footy despite what various media nuffies say. I reckon Richmond do it with kids with perceived temperament or lifestyle concerns, and the dogs did it with a certain kind of midfielder they build their premiership team around (Bont peaking early and perfect timing of Boyd's 1 good month helped too).
 

RobZombie

Premium Platinum
May 18, 2012
6,667
17,045
Back In Town
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Jays, Leafs
You can pick Luffy's pick:

Mahony had the 3rd best u/18 nationals statistically according to CD and they ranked him in the top 5 players in the NAB league this year.

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I saw those the other day. Obviously there's reasons why some players can't transfer junior form to the next level, but everything in Mahony's statistical profile leaps out as a player who doesn't pad stats and doesn't waste a disposal. I like the Gresham comp. If he turns out that well we'll be winning.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
52,001
100,075
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
I've thought for a little while now that injury is our Moneyball, as in an actual definition of moneyball as players who are systematically undervalued by the market for some reason. Whether it pays off or not, it seems to be a consistent philosophy over the last half dozen years. Higgins, Waite, Hrovat, Ahern, Anderson, Brown, Hayden, Simpkin, Zurhaar, Bonar, Mitch Hibberd, this year's 3 draftees - all had their draft or market value depressed by a history of injury.

Actual Moneyball is pretty rare in footy despite what various media nuffies say. I reckon Richmond do it with kids with perceived temperament or lifestyle concerns, and the dogs did it with a certain kind of midfielder they build their premiership team around (Bont peaking early and perfect timing of Boyd's 1 good month helped too).
Baseball and AFL footy are very different sports in relation to individual & team aspects.

Baseball thinking is better suited to cricket.
 

Rusty Buckets

Senior List
Oct 11, 2019
278
457
AFL Club
North Melbourne
If you have a look at any number of the past editions of the Champion Data Prospectus, you'll see a list of their top 25 draft prospects for the coming year. Unfortunately, six to eight on average don't end up getting drafted.
 

Orange Peanut

Premiership Player
Feb 6, 2013
4,957
19,520
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I've thought for a little while now that injury is our Moneyball, as in an actual definition of moneyball as players who are systematically undervalued by the market for some reason. Whether it pays off or not, it seems to be a consistent philosophy over the last half dozen years. Higgins, Waite, Hrovat, Ahern, Anderson, Brown, Hayden, Simpkin, Zurhaar, Bonar, Mitch Hibberd, this year's 3 draftees - all had their draft or market value depressed by a history of injury.
Yep, a decent part of the Sixers' "trust the process" era used the same philosophy.
It makes a lot of sense.
 

roos_fanatic08

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 21, 2008
20,015
29,128
Vic
AFL Club
North Melbourne
If Jacobs can't get on the park or if we have a nasty injury over the pre-season it would be worthwhile keeping these names at the forefront for an SPP selection.

- Darcy Cassar
- Darcy Chirgwin
- Dyson Hilder
- Ben Sokol
- Luke Partington
- Cody Hirst
- Daniel Mott
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
52,001
100,075
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
If Jacobs can't get on the park or if we have a nasty injury over the pre-season it would be worthwhile keeping these names at the forefront for an SPP selection.

- Darcy Cassar
- Darcy Chirgwin
- Dyson Hilder
- Ben Sokol
- Luke Partington
- Cody Hirst
- Daniel Mott

Let's not bury him just yet mate.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
52,001
100,075
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
At what point do we look to move on, I hope he comes back but if the issues are so complicated to sort is coming back safe ?
1) When he retires after getting another contract
2) When his contract expires this year
3) If he decides to come to an arrangement with the club to retire early.

I can't see him walking away from the contract after boxing on so hard for the last one.

My view? He'd certainly want a return to a run of matches and performances that indicated he was over his issues.
 

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