Review 2019 AFL National Draft

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shinboner magic

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 17, 2007
13,185
15,069
melb home of the kangas
AFL Club
North Melbourne
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hellas,liverpool,storm,au
Wells turned back the clock.

Turned Kelly into Cooper Stephens, Sam De Koning and Cam Taheney.

They also hold 3 x first rounders next year including a locked in #11, which may end up better than the Melbourne pick.
We were within touching distance of getting that puck 11 - cats just got lucky
 

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RobZombie

Premium Platinum
May 18, 2012
7,226
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In the same vein, I've noticed over the last couple of drafts we've been more aggressive with delistings (Mountford, Hibberd, Hrovat, Wagner, Hartung etc.) and trades (Clarke), while punting more on 'upside' of draftees. It's like we are very conscious that the draft is a lottery and the strategy is to get as many tickets as possible hoping to luck into 'steals' and quickly cycle through the guys that are just ok. Then we also pick guys who are more 'unknown' due to injury (Simpkin, Comben, Perez, Mahony), being off the radar (NEAFL) or code-switching (Walker). If it doesn't work out, just take another speculative 3rd round pick in 2 years. If it does, you've got a bargain and a keeper. Not a bad approach in my view as long as all the young guys coming through know where they stand.
I've thought for a little while now that injury is our Moneyball, as in an actual definition of moneyball as players who are systematically undervalued by the market for some reason. Whether it pays off or not, it seems to be a consistent philosophy over the last half dozen years. Higgins, Waite, Hrovat, Ahern, Anderson, Brown, Hayden, Simpkin, Zurhaar, Bonar, Mitch Hibberd, this year's 3 draftees - all had their draft or market value depressed by a history of injury.

Actual Moneyball is pretty rare in footy despite what various media nuffies say. I reckon Richmond do it with kids with perceived temperament or lifestyle concerns, and the dogs did it with a certain kind of midfielder they build their premiership team around (Bont peaking early and perfect timing of Boyd's 1 good month helped too).
 

RobZombie

Premium Platinum
May 18, 2012
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You can pick Luffy's pick:

Mahony had the 3rd best u/18 nationals statistically according to CD and they ranked him in the top 5 players in the NAB league this year.

View attachment 788192

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View attachment 788195
I saw those the other day. Obviously there's reasons why some players can't transfer junior form to the next level, but everything in Mahony's statistical profile leaps out as a player who doesn't pad stats and doesn't waste a disposal. I like the Gresham comp. If he turns out that well we'll be winning.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Suspended
Apr 24, 2013
70,062
135,320
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
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Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
I've thought for a little while now that injury is our Moneyball, as in an actual definition of moneyball as players who are systematically undervalued by the market for some reason. Whether it pays off or not, it seems to be a consistent philosophy over the last half dozen years. Higgins, Waite, Hrovat, Ahern, Anderson, Brown, Hayden, Simpkin, Zurhaar, Bonar, Mitch Hibberd, this year's 3 draftees - all had their draft or market value depressed by a history of injury.

Actual Moneyball is pretty rare in footy despite what various media nuffies say. I reckon Richmond do it with kids with perceived temperament or lifestyle concerns, and the dogs did it with a certain kind of midfielder they build their premiership team around (Bont peaking early and perfect timing of Boyd's 1 good month helped too).
Baseball and AFL footy are very different sports in relation to individual & team aspects.

Baseball thinking is better suited to cricket.
 

Rusty Buckets

Team Captain
Oct 11, 2019
311
534
AFL Club
North Melbourne
If you have a look at any number of the past editions of the Champion Data Prospectus, you'll see a list of their top 25 draft prospects for the coming year. Unfortunately, six to eight on average don't end up getting drafted.
 

Orange Peanut

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 6, 2013
5,663
23,870
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I've thought for a little while now that injury is our Moneyball, as in an actual definition of moneyball as players who are systematically undervalued by the market for some reason. Whether it pays off or not, it seems to be a consistent philosophy over the last half dozen years. Higgins, Waite, Hrovat, Ahern, Anderson, Brown, Hayden, Simpkin, Zurhaar, Bonar, Mitch Hibberd, this year's 3 draftees - all had their draft or market value depressed by a history of injury.
Yep, a decent part of the Sixers' "trust the process" era used the same philosophy.
It makes a lot of sense.
 

roos_fanatic08

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 21, 2008
20,978
32,680
Vic
AFL Club
North Melbourne
If Jacobs can't get on the park or if we have a nasty injury over the pre-season it would be worthwhile keeping these names at the forefront for an SPP selection.

- Darcy Cassar
- Darcy Chirgwin
- Dyson Hilder
- Ben Sokol
- Luke Partington
- Cody Hirst
- Daniel Mott
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Suspended
Apr 24, 2013
70,062
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inside your head
AFL Club
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If Jacobs can't get on the park or if we have a nasty injury over the pre-season it would be worthwhile keeping these names at the forefront for an SPP selection.

- Darcy Cassar
- Darcy Chirgwin
- Dyson Hilder
- Ben Sokol
- Luke Partington
- Cody Hirst
- Daniel Mott

Let's not bury him just yet mate.
 

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Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Suspended
Apr 24, 2013
70,062
135,320
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
At what point do we look to move on, I hope he comes back but if the issues are so complicated to sort is coming back safe ?
1) When he retires after getting another contract
2) When his contract expires this year
3) If he decides to come to an arrangement with the club to retire early.

I can't see him walking away from the contract after boxing on so hard for the last one.

My view? He'd certainly want a return to a run of matches and performances that indicated he was over his issues.
 

Event Horizon

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 24, 2002
19,876
9,098
Melbourne
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North Melbourne
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View attachment 788503

I hope the soft, diving dog never plays another game again.
That was more umpire's fault than his I reckon. Brown would have done similar if given a nudge in the dying stages of the game.
But I was more referring to his game turning 10 minutes of footy at Marvel against us early in the season.
 

Rusty Buckets

Team Captain
Oct 11, 2019
311
534
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Well, I am yet to hear anyone definitely say that players available at pick 8 were standouts this year. Who knows, what the term "even draft" actually means...
I wouldn't know if they were or weren't EH. Maybe Pykie does? I would simply assume that the chances of obtaining an elite talent are much higher at the pointy-end of the draft, as opposed to having middle-of-the-road picks. If the three lads chosen in the 30s become serviceable, role players, I say the recruiters have done well. However, that's not what we need. Put another way, GWS played off in the GF and have added two top-10 talents. How have we closed the gap this off-season?
 

Event Horizon

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 24, 2002
19,876
9,098
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Victory
I wouldn't know if they were or weren't EH. Maybe Pykie does? I would simply assume that the chances of obtaining an elite talent are much higher at the pointy-end of the draft, as opposed to having middle-of-the-road picks. If the three lads chosen in the 30s become serviceable, role players, I say the recruiters have done well. However, that's not what we need. Put another way, GWS played off in the GF and have added two top-10 talents. How have we closed the gap this off-season?
True. But football is played by players, not draft picks. Bonar was pick 11. Now was given to us for pretty much nothing after just two seasons.
Or take Zurhaar, who wasn't even drafted in his draft year. Now looking like the closest thing we've seen to Arch in a very long time.
Add Ahearn to that. Pick 7 he was.
 

Rusty Buckets

Team Captain
Oct 11, 2019
311
534
AFL Club
North Melbourne
True. But football is played by players, not draft picks. Bonar was pick 11. Now was given to us for pretty much nothing after just two seasons.
Or take Zurhaar, who wasn't even drafted in his draft year. Now looking like the closest thing we've seen to Arch in a very long time.
You could add Brown and Larkey in making this point EH, and even Dumont (selection 30), who seems terribly underrated by some on here. I suppose in terms of the game-changer that we desperately need, it seems that more often than not, the likes of Bont, Cripps, Dusty, Bud, Pendlebury, Whitfield, Danger etc. come inside 10.
 

Hearts to hearts

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 16, 2001
20,073
34,076
Melbourne VIC
AFL Club
North Melbourne
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You could add Brown and Larkey in making this point EH, and even Dumont (selection 30), who seems terribly underrated by some on here. I suppose in terms of the game-changer that we desperately need, it seems that more often than not, the likes of Bont, Cripps, Dusty, Bud, Pendlebury, Whitfield, Danger etc. come inside 10.
Cripps wasn't top 10 and Dangerfield was just, at 10. Fyfe also picked comfortably outside the top 10. Higher chances but plenty of busts at that level and gems below it.
 

Rusty Buckets

Team Captain
Oct 11, 2019
311
534
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Cripps wasn't top 10 and Dangerfield was just, at 10. Fyfe also picked comfortably outside the top 10. Higher chances but plenty of busts at that level and gems below it.
Thank you for highlighting my inaccuracy. I'll endeavour to pay closer attention to detail next time. I suspected you would bring up Fyfe, so fair play to you. My intent was to point out the percentages involved in the context of pick 8 or 10 v pick 31 etc.
 

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