Preview 2019 AFL National Draft

Snake_Baker

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Apr 24, 2013
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The Unicornia Reactants
I've been blithely assuming pick swaps will be a thing without putting much thought into it. For our first 4 picks:

26 + 27 = pick 10 by points value
26 + 50 = pick 18
47 + 50 = pick 32

There are other combinations obviously but they're all in the ballpark of one of those combos.

Given that you'd expect it to cost points to move up, let's say we could get something around 15-18, 20-25, 35-40 for various sets of picks.

Gold Coast have 1, 2, 15, 20, then nothing until 78.
Brisbane have 16, 21, 34, 48, 52, 55
Geelong have 14, 17, 24, 36, then nothing until 93
Bulldogs have 13, 53, and nothing until 89
Hawks have 11, 30, 42, 54, 63, 87, 92 and a F/S bid for Maginness to deal with
Freo have 7, 10, 22, 58, 69, 79, 83 and an academy bid to deal with

All of them could be candidates to split higher picks depending on bolters/sliders and bids. I haven't checked how many open list spots they all have, so Geelong in particular might be perfectly happy with what they have.

Alternatively, the Saints only have 51, 76, 82. Would they do a future 2nd for 27? Quite like the idea of either that or going after the Dogs' pick 13 or GC's 15.
You'd reckon our first 2 points have some currency this year if the draft watchers general comments about this draft are anything to go by.

Still you would need to identify clubs entering a significant rebuild stage. Hello Adelaide & Geelong.
 

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RobZombie

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You'd reckon our first 2 points have some currency this year if the draft watchers general comments about this draft are anything to go by.

Still you would need to identify clubs entering a significant rebuild stage. Hello Adelaide & Geelong.
I left out Adelaide.

4, 23, 28, 37, 45, 49.

It’s not a set of picks that would make sense for them to take any of ours.

If Geelong have 5 list spots they might prefer 47 & 50 to 36 & 93.

(Edit: 93 is most likely something in the 70s in reality)
 

RobZombie

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You'd reckon our first 2 points have some currency this year if the draft watchers general comments about this draft are anything to go by.

Still you would need to identify clubs entering a significant rebuild stage. Hello Adelaide & Geelong.
Rather than rebuilding clubs, I was thinking about ones who have big gaps between ok and shit picks, or ones navigating around bids.
 

tiltraise

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Gold Coast have 1, 2, 15, 20, then nothing until 78.
Brisbane have 16, 21, 34, 48, 52, 55
Geelong have 14, 17, 24, 36, then nothing until 93
Bulldogs have 13, 53, and nothing until 89
Hawks have 11, 30, 42, 54, 63, 87, 92 and a F/S bid for Maginness to deal with
Freo have 7, 10, 22, 58, 69, 79, 83 and an academy bid to deal with

All of them could be candidates to split higher picks depending on bolters/sliders and bids. I haven't checked how many open list spots they all have
Most teams dont have many list spots for the picks they hold.

The only real upgrade option I see is Freo's 22 for our 26&50.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-10-24/how-many-picks-will-your-club-use-in-the-2019-draft
 

RobZombie

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Most teams dont have many list spots for the picks they hold.

The only real upgrade option I see is Freo's 22 for our 26&50.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-10-24/how-many-picks-will-your-club-use-in-the-2019-draft
Dogs & Suns could still be in the frame. Dogs have to use 3 and if the suns end up taking 5 we might be able to get 15 or 20 out of them. I also like the saints thing. Do they even have a 2020 2nd to trade? (... checks ...) bugger, they already gave it to freo. They’ve got nothing but shit picks next year.
 

Masked Avenger

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Dogs & Suns could still be in the frame. Dogs have to use 3 and if the suns end up taking 5 we might be able to get 15 or 20 out of them. I also like the saints thing. Do they even have a 2020 2nd to trade? (... checks ...) bugger, they already gave it to freo. They’ve got nothing but shit picks next year.
If we can't get higher in this year's draft, then another option is to bundle up 26 and 27 for a sweeter pick next year. Would GWS be keen for more points if Green's bid on before Pick 6? They might be prepared to cough up their first round pick next year for the extra points this year. It would enable them to hold onto pick 6 and get a gun on top of Green. It would give us three first rounders next year.
 

Passmore

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If we can't get higher in this year's draft, then another option is to bundle up 26 and 27 for a sweeter pick next year. Would GWS be keen for more points if Green's bid on before Pick 6? They might be prepared to cough up their first round pick next year for the extra points this year. It would enable them to hold onto pick 6 and get a gun on top of Green. It would give us three first rounders next year.
That’s interesting as we could have a number of list spots open next year. There’s a shit load of players coming out of contract at the end of 2020 who are on thin ice I’d think.
 

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krakouers85

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Pick 27 – North Melbourne Kangaroos – Jeremy Sharp
189cm, 81kg

Sharp has some deficiencies but is a two-time under-18 All-Australian with a big kick and the ability to move the ball out of defence or on a wing.

Pick 28 – North Melbourne Kangaroos – Elijah Taylor
188cm, 77kg

While Taylor’s stocks have fallen a bit since the middle of the year, he’s still a really exciting prospect who has a bit of x-factor up forward or on the wing.


Taylor might be good value for money
 

Groucho

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Pick 27 – North Melbourne Kangaroos – Jeremy Sharp
189cm, 81kg

Sharp has some deficiencies but is a two-time under-18 All-Australian with a big kick and the ability to move the ball out of defence or on a wing.

Pick 28 – North Melbourne Kangaroos – Elijah Taylor
188cm, 77kg

While Taylor’s stocks have fallen a bit since the middle of the year, he’s still a really exciting prospect who has a bit of x-factor up forward or on the wing.


Taylor might be good value for money
In that scenario you'd reckon we'd take Pickett rather than Taylor.
 

muttley45

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I've been blithely assuming pick swaps will be a thing without putting much thought into it. For our first 4 picks:

26 + 27 = pick 10 by points value
26 + 50 = pick 18
47 + 50 = pick 32

There are other combinations obviously but they're all in the ballpark of one of those combos.

Given that you'd expect it to cost points to move up, let's say we could get something around 15-18, 20-25, 35-40 for various sets of picks.

Gold Coast have 1, 2, 15, 20, then nothing until 78.
Brisbane have 16, 21, 34, 48, 52, 55
Geelong have 14, 17, 24, 36, then nothing until 93
Bulldogs have 13, 53, and nothing until 89
Hawks have 11, 30, 42, 54, 63, 87, 92 and a F/S bid for Maginness to deal with
Freo have 7, 10, 22, 58, 69, 79, 83 and an academy bid to deal with

All of them could be candidates to split higher picks depending on bolters/sliders and bids. I haven't checked how many open list spots they all have, so Geelong in particular might be perfectly happy with what they have.

Alternatively, the Saints only have 51, 76, 82. Would they do a future 2nd for 27? Quite like the idea of either that or going after the Dogs' pick 13 or GC's 15.
This may be a silly question Rob, but Re. live trading of picks at this draft, can some of next year's also be included, or only this years ?
 

Nutjob

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Oct 23, 2014
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A perfect scenario for me would be to pair one of 26-27 and one of 47-50 for a pick in the teens. We would then have a pick in each round again, have added Bonar and have two 1st rounders lined up for next year. If we could manage that I would be ecstatic.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

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