AFL 2019 - AFL Preliminary Finals

(Log in to remove this ad.)

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,673
1,016
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I think the highlight of this weeks AFL debacle is Lachie Neale being interviewed at the tribunal by the AFL, then the AFL telling the tribunal to ignore Lachie Neale's evidence because they didn't like it. Why even drag him along?

I really wanted to bet GWS here with Coniglio, Whitfield and Greene in but it's now looking a bit like a foregone conclusion.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
40,983
44,661
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Can any player in the squad be named in the starting 18 (or on the bench) this weekend outside of the named team and emergencies as a late inclusion?
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,301
3,516
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Anybody else wonder why the Taylor goalscorer odds have gone out so far?

Half the posters on the Geelong board are confident he will be the one to go forward.

And even if he starts back with Henderson forward, if Richmond get on top, Taylor a big chance to 'swing' forward i.e. Scott's Plan B.

What am I missing here?
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,021
782
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
1u kelly ags @2.45 b365 (covered 16/24)
1u narkle ags @2.45 b365 (3/5)
1u miers ags @1.72 sb (17/24 & averaging almost 3 scoring shots a game in his last 5 games)
2u dusty ags @1.40 b365 (on fire in his last 6 games)

0.5u miers 2g+ @4.50 sb
0.2u miers 3g+ @18 sb
 
Last edited:

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
28,804
20,746
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
I think the highlight of this weeks AFL debacle is Lachie Neale being interviewed at the tribunal by the AFL, then the AFL telling the tribunal to ignore Lachie Neale's evidence because they didn't like it. Why even drag him along?

I really wanted to bet GWS here with Coniglio, Whitfield and Greene in but it's now looking a bit like a foregone conclusion.
It was a forgone conclusion 2 weeks ago
 

bluebob1

Senior List
Aug 28, 2011
204
150
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Anybody else wonder why the Taylor goalscorer odds have gone out so far?

Half the posters on the Geelong board are confident he will be the one to go forward.

And even if he starts back with Henderson forward, if Richmond get on top, Taylor a big chance to 'swing' forward i.e. Scott's Plan B.

What am I missing here?
Sportsbet seem to think Henderson is starting forward as he is 1.30 ATS whereas Taylor is 2.30 or so, Henderson 2.80 for 2 goals but 9.5 for Taylor. Whereas Bet365 have them priced the same for ATS at 2.45. So go sportbet for taylor and hedge with something on Henderson ATS elsewhere.
 

bluebob1

Senior List
Aug 28, 2011
204
150
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Sportsbet seem to think Henderson is starting forward as he is 1.30 ATS whereas Taylor is 2.30 or so, Henderson 2.80 for 2 goals but 9.5 for Taylor. Whereas Bet365 have them priced the same for ATS at 2.45. So go sportbet for taylor and hedge with something on Henderson ATS elsewhere.
Henderson hasnt kicked a goal in a long time so not sure why they think he is starting forward.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,301
3,516
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Interesting analysis on the Geelong board regarding the game styles of the two teams.


From a biased perspective (a Geelong fan) but worth reading nonetheless. Seems like a fairly solid writeup to me.

Geelong's second half of the season was crap, and many of their own fans complained that they were 'too defensive', and 'moving the ball too slow'.

But this does seem to be the way to beat Richmond: stop them from playing their quick transition game by moving the ball forward slowly.

Almost like it's been a competition full of teams of paper, Richmond are the scissors, and Geelong are the rock.

Easy to forget that Geelong beat Richmond by 67 points earlier in the year.

A long time ago, and the Tigers were missing players, sure, but why such a large margin against Geelong?

0.2U Geel -19.5 @ 7.5
0.2U Geel -38.5 @ 21
0.2U Geel -58.5 @ 81
0.2U Geel -66.5 @ 201
 
Last edited:

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,325
1,321
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Anybody else wonder why the Taylor goalscorer odds have gone out so far?

Half the posters on the Geelong board are confident he will be the one to go forward.

And even if he starts back with Henderson forward, if Richmond get on top, Taylor a big chance to 'swing' forward i.e. Scott's Plan B.

What am I missing here?
tightened back in. seems like sportsbet got played by the team line-up. can cash out the 3+ for over 100% ROI but im a greedy basta*d so ill let it ride. good shout out early in the week cheers.
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,301
3,516
AFL Club
North Melbourne
tightened back in. seems like sportsbet got played by the team line-up. can cash out the 3+ for over 100% ROI but im a greedy basta*d so ill let it ride. good shout out early in the week cheers.
Lol. You are correct. Come right back in.

Three goals was out to 46s earlier today, now its at 13s.

But these odds are only slightly tighter than when I put my bets on earlier in the week.

Wish I had loaded up once they went out, instead of whingeing on here about why they had gone out.

Oh well. Here's to hoping Harry kicks four. He does that and I'm back in the positive for season 2019.

Which would be amazing given how wreckless I've been this season.

Still on tilt from Hawthorn failing to kick that one final goal against West Coast farkn.

Even three goals from Harry tonight would be enough to make for a very handsome return.

Also hoping for three goals from Miers, who kicked three against Richmond last time, currently paying 17s to do it again.

#pray4harry

#pray4gryan
 
Last edited:

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,325
1,321
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Lol. You are correct. Come right back in.

Three goals was at to 46s earlier today, now its at 13s.

But these odds are only slightly tighter than when I put my bets on earlier in the week.

Wish I had loaded up once they went out, instead of whingeing on here about why they had gone out.

Oh well. Here's to hoping Harry kicks four. He does that and I'm back in the positive for season 2019.

Which would be amazing given how wreckless I've been this season.

Still on tilt from Hawthorn failing to kick that one final goal against West Coast farkn.

Even three goals from Harry tonight would be enough to make for a very handsome return.

Also hoping for three goals from Miers, who kicked three against Richmond last time, currently paying 17s to do it again.

#pray4harry

#pray4gryan
that was pretty unlucky with Hawthorn, ridiculously good call tho. Lets go Harry
 

happy punter

Club Legend
Mar 29, 2009
2,206
771
Very weird to see a minor premiers such a big underdog in a prelim final. One also could argue they should be a bigger price as well!
 
Last edited:

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
40,983
44,661
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Interesting analysis on the Geelong board regarding the game styles of the two teams.


From a biased perspective (a Geelong fan) but worth reading nonetheless. Seems like a fairly solid writeup to me.

Geelong's second half of the season was crap, and many of their own fans complained that they were 'too defensive', and 'moving the ball too slow'.

But this does seem to be the way to beat Richmond: stop them from playing their quick transition game by moving the ball forward slowly.

Almost like it's been a competition full of teams of paper, Richmond are the scissors, and Geelong are the rock.

Easy to forget that Geelong beat Richmond by 67 points earlier in the year.

A long time ago, and the Tigers were missing players, sure, but why such a large margin against Geelong?

0.2U Geel -19.5 @ 7.5
0.2U Geel -38.5 @ 21
0.2U Geel -58.5 @ 81
0.2U Geel -66.5 @ 201
Given the 2nd halves of the Cats in 2019, you had every right to be feeling confident and happy at HT.

Bad luck, but nice punting for value.
 

Top Bottom