- Jul 28, 2018
- 515
- 643
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Banned
- #251
19 points after 12 minutes of play.
Haha. Nice edit after two quick goals
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19 points after 12 minutes of play.
Wasn't really the trend last year. GWS pumped WB, as did Port vs Freo, Swans won easily vs WC (they were big favs), Saints and Tigers both comfortable winners, Hawks favs vs Coll. Ess beat Ade but this was more a last quarter thumping as they ran over the top of them. GC vs NM was a monsoon so hard to tell.Note to self. Take all underdogs round 1 next season. This is the trend.
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Wasn't really the trend last year. GWS pumped WB, as did Port vs Freo, Swans won easily vs WC (they were big favs), Saints and Tigers both comfortable winners, Hawks favs vs Coll. Ess beat Ade but this was more a last quarter thumping as they ran over the top of them. GC vs NM was a monsoon so hard to tell.
From what I can tell teams with a poor prep or some injury concerns fared badly. NM (injuries and lots of new players), Ess (injuries, players with poor preps), Melb with players underdone (Viney, Jones etc), WC (no forward line), Syd (Buddy underdone). Then again Ade looked like they had a solid preseason then came out and were terrible.
I think he's just trying to understand why teams lost, rather than saying we should have seen it coming.Solid after timing here - 4 days ago Melbourne were virtually unbeatable and North were HUUUUUUUUUGE overs because Hogan wasn't playing.
I think he's just trying to understand why teams lost, rather than saying we should have seen it coming.
Yep, wasn't suggesting it was flawless logic.Didn't Freo and St Kilda have injury concerns as well though?
Updated Record: 9-11-0 -2.96 units
GWS/Essendon
(2.5u) Coniglio more fantasy points than Merrett @ $1.77 (pointsbet)
(2.5u) Taranto over 99.5 fantasy @ $1.88 (pointsbet)
(2u) Whitfield under 104.5 fantasy @ $1.88 (BE)
2u Saints/GC under 180.5 @ 1.9 (uni)
2u Freo/North Under 178.5 @ 1.9 (uni)
0.5u Mulit above picks + GWS/Ess u180.5 @ $8.03 (uni, 20% boost)
Updated record: 14-15-01.5u Langdon more disposals than Dumont @ $2 (365)
1.5u Lobb anytime, Higgins 25+ @ $2.13 (lads)
1u Mundy anytime @ $1.9 (neds)
2u either team under 24.5 $1.8 (neds)
I bet on more things than I posted here but I'll check my record of tips posted only, not fair to include anything else.Updated record: 14-15-0
Units: +0.56
Funny round, but will take it ending in the green. Felt I forced a few plays, got unlucky on some, and made the complete wrong choice on others. Hopefully build the bank a bit more next round!
I was very big on Melb - but I also had reasons to be big on Melb. I talked myself into NM even though I didn't like their prep. I certainly got most of the round wrong that's for sure.Solid after timing here - 4 days ago Melbourne were virtually unbeatable and North were HUUUUUUUUUGE overs because Hogan wasn't playing.
StK were pretty ordinary I would have thought. 1 point win vs away team everyone has ranked as wooden spoon favourites.Didn't Freo and St Kilda have injury concerns as well though?
Yeh I follow a few blokes here and there so usually end up going alright. Just thought it’d be good for myself to track myself somewhere. Probably helps me with analysing my results a bit more too.I bet on more things than I posted here but I'll check my record of tips posted only, not fair to include anything else.
Think I'm up, but will be interesting lol.
I keep a spreadsheet of all my stakes and returns on afl. Last year went at 110% over the season which is nothing amazing but betting on almost every game, being in the green is always a good result.Yeh I follow a few blokes here and there so usually end up going alright. Just thought it’d be good for myself to track myself somewhere. Probably helps me with analysing my results a bit more too.
Looking back my main killers this weekend were;
3u Collingwood SU
4u Beams more disposals than Ablett
3.5u Gus Brayshaw Fantasy overs
0.5U Treloar O28.5 @1.94 -SB
0.5U Bont O23.5 @1.92 -SB
0.5U Miles O21.5 @1.94 -SB
1u Hopper O21.5 @1.80 -SB
I was very big on Melb - but I also had reasons to be big on Melb. I talked myself into NM even though I didn't like their prep. I certainly got most of the round wrong that's for sure.
There were some massive deviations from the line and from totals so ideally i'd rather try to see some sort of pattern that might be of use for next year.
For all the gloating, I got North at $2.12 and they started around $1.80. Pretty happy with the value long term in getting on a bet 30c high even if a losing bet this time.