AFL 2019 - AFL Round 14

Who covers the line this week?


  • Total voters
    18
  • Poll closed .

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JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
805
1,064
AFL Club
Essendon
George Hewett's possessions in the last 4 rounds: 29, 29, 12, 29.
25+ $2.40
30+ $6.00
SB

Holding on it for the moment as the prices are lengthening for some reason.
Hasn't been tight tagging much lately but maybe the plan is to go to Jaeger like Clarke did? Sydney fans?
 

andwhenitcomes

Senior List
May 2, 2018
271
330
AFL Club
Melbourne
George Hewett's possessions in the last 4 rounds: 29, 29, 12, 29.
25+ $2.40
30+ $6.00
SB

Holding on it for the moment as the prices are lengthening for some reason.
Hasn't been tight tagging much lately but maybe the plan is to go to Jaeger like Clarke did? Sydney fans?
Worth keeping in mind those three 29s were all minus Josh Kennedy.
 

Ohh Ok

Team Captain
Jul 31, 2018
535
569
AFL Club
Adelaide
5u Lloyd 9+ marks $1.98 (topsport) - $1.90 (BetEasy - BuildABet)

Weather won't be an issue for this one tonight. Between round 6-10 this bet missed 100% of the time, every other game this season it wins. The key part about this bet is the match up (Hawthorn) who give up bucket loads of uncontested marks to opposition defenders, you only need to go back through some of their games to see this. Lloyd is one of the best at finding an uncontested possession so he should soak it up tonight.

4u Worpel 20+, Shiels 20+ Kennedy 20+, Parker 20+ $1.90 (SB)
2.5u Papley AGS, Smith 20+ $2 (SB)
1u Hawthorn +11.5 $1.91 (PB)
 
Last edited:

Oraaaaazio

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2014
1,307
1,690
AFL Club
Essendon
Snap this up before it loses value
3u Parish Under 24.5 disposals @ $1.70 (BE/365)
Not after timing here and genuinely enquiring, not being a smart arse. On what basis did you take this bet? Do you look back through past games & see how many times they've gone over the total etc.?
 

Ohh Ok

Team Captain
Jul 31, 2018
535
569
AFL Club
Adelaide
Not after timing here and genuinely enquiring, not being a smart arse. On what basis did you take this bet? Do you look back through past games & see how many times they've gone over the total etc.?
No dramas mate. That's part of it definitely, there is generally a lot that I try to consider; TOG, opponent, tags, form, ground, injured/uninjured, role and market value etc. Sometimes I get it wrong and others right. Quite often with the SGMs they're leans that I have on certain players, and others are to add value due to the high probability of them reaching there total.

Last week the inclusion of Shiel back into the side saw a drop in numbers from Parish's (21, and under last night's total) big few weeks, I was expecting Shiel to improve on last week's performance and take a bit more of the footy from Parish. Also believe he had a tougher opponent than recent weeks (Hawthorn, Carlton, Richmond). I beat the closing odds which were around $1.50. In hindsight though probably didn't consider the impact Devon Smith and even to some degree Stringer out of the side has had on his performance, and probably should have taken more note of the amount of footy WCE had given up in recent weeks. The bet was looking 50-50 at half time when he was on 11 disposals, before going on to rack up 16 in the second half, 4 or 5 disposals in the first 2 or 3 minutes of the last quarter really hurt and put the bet to bed though.

Always open to discuss plays, post quite a few plays usually so don't always have the time to give reasoning for them all. The more we discuss them the better we can analyse and churn out some positive results 🤙
 
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TheScream

Senior List
Jul 19, 2016
190
142
AFL Club
GWS
Hawks O69.5. Hawks have scored 70+ points in 9/12 games this year, Swans have conceded 70+ in guess what, ALL of their games (Yes - 12/12).
Also not AFL related but Lanka U21.5 4s in the CWC. Has anyone watched this team lately? 22 fours for a side that played out of their skins last game and still only managed 20 fours, previous games against NZ and Afghan only managed 11 and 15.
U9.5 6s at $4.75 too, if Lanka bat first, don't expect them to score too many and England won't have a huge total to chase. Joe Root with 100 fours and 0 sixes.
 

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Oraaaaazio

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2014
1,307
1,690
AFL Club
Essendon
No dramas mate. That's part of it definitely, there is generally a lot that I try to consider; TOG, opponent, tags, form, ground, injured/uninjured, role and market value etc. Sometimes I get it wrong and others right. Quite often with the SGMs they're leans that I have on certain players, and others are to add value due to the high probability of them reaching there total.

Last week the inclusion of Shiel back into the side saw a drop in numbers from Parish's (21, and under last night's total) big few weeks, I was expecting Shiel to improve on last week's performance and take a bit more of the footy from Parish. Also believe he had a tougher opponent than recent weeks (Hawthorn, Carlton, Richmond). I beat the closing odds which were around $1.50. In hindsight though probably didn't consider the impact Devon Smith and even to some degree Stringer out of the side has had on his performance, and probably should have taken more note of the amount of footy WCE had given up in recent weeks. The bet was looking 50-50 at half time when he was on 11 disposals, before going on to rack up 16 in the second half, 4 or 5 disposals in the first 2 or 3 minutes of the last quarter really hurt and put the bet to bed though.

Always open to discuss plays, post quite a few plays usually so don't always have the time to give reasoning for them all. The more we discuss them the better we can analyse and churn out some positive results 🤙
No worries, don't expect you to post reasoning for each bet - was just wondering about your train of thought that lead to Parish going under. Some on here place disposals bets based on how many times a bloke has gone over/under and don't consider changes in role (like Parish has had) and whatnot but seems you've got it all covered.
 

squeaky1000

Rookie
Apr 30, 2018
44
54
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Hawks O69.5. Hawks have scored 70+ points in 9/12 games this year, Swans have conceded 70+ in guess what, ALL of their games (Yes - 12/12).
Also not AFL related but Lanka U21.5 4s in the CWC. Has anyone watched this team lately? 22 fours for a side that played out of their skins last game and still only managed 20 fours, previous games against NZ and Afghan only managed 11 and 15.
U9.5 6s at $4.75 too, if Lanka bat first, don't expect them to score too many and England won't have a huge total to chase. Joe Root with 100 fours and 0 sixes.
Where are you finding under 9.5 sixes at $4.75??
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
733
368
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Hawks O69.5. Hawks have scored 70+ points in 9/12 games this year, Swans have conceded 70+ in guess what, ALL of their games (Yes - 12/12).
Also not AFL related but Lanka U21.5 4s in the CWC. Has anyone watched this team lately? 22 fours for a side that played out of their skins last game and still only managed 20 fours, previous games against NZ and Afghan only managed 11 and 15.
U9.5 6s at $4.75 too, if Lanka bat first, don't expect them to score too many and England won't have a huge total to chase. Joe Root with 100 fours and 0 sixes.
Is the under on 4's also TAB? Cant find it.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
733
368
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Sportsbet mate! Sorry should’ve specified odds and book
Nah all good. Makes sense now.
Even if England win toss, think they would send in Sri Lanka. Better for them to train run chases, would be happy with their effort of batting 1st a few days ago so dont need to waste 50 overs out in the middle

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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