AFL 2019 - AFL Round 15

Who Covers the line this week?


  • Total voters
    15
  • Poll closed .

Oraaaaazio

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2014
1,344
1,745
AFL Club
Essendon
General advice: if you can't understand why a team are favourites or why a line has moved so much to one team, it's often because sharp money is moving the line that way, against your opinion. I'd advise you not to bet on your gut feel in these scenarios because the big dogs who bet full time are moving these lines, especially on game day and these blokes have put a heap of time & effort into their predictive algorithms and it's going to win far more than the average joe's gut feel long term.
 

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TryAnHit

Debutant
Mar 1, 2012
68
47
AFL Club
Adelaide
General advice: if you can't understand why a team are favourites or why a line has moved so much to one team, it's often because sharp money is moving the line that way, against your opinion. I'd advise you not to bet on your gut feel in these scenarios because the big dogs who bet full time are moving these lines, especially on game day and these blokes have put a heap of time & effort into their predictive algorithms and it's going to win far more than the average joe's gut feel long term.
Sort of true in a way.

There is a site called sportpunter that has been a very big winner for a long time. There picks cost about 1500$ for the year...

They are released every morning at around 10am... and that is why the price moves alot as alot of people tail those plays
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
39,668
41,833
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
To be fair - normal accuracy from both teams and the Giants cover the line pretty easily - just random variance going with the market move this game.
Irony being that the Giants is one of the most accurate teams in the competition compared to the Bombers who are about mid table.
 

Oraaaaazio

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2014
1,344
1,745
AFL Club
Essendon
Sort of true in a way.

There is a site called sportpunter that has been a very big winner for a long time. There picks cost about 1500$ for the year...

They are released every morning at around 10am... and that is why the price moves alot as alot of people tail those plays
Sportpunter were good a few years back, coin flipper nowawdays
 

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NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,028
941
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
O28.5 $2.45 on bet365.

Normally take the lesser disposal number but think that's enough of a difference for 1 touch for me to take bet365
Oh wow... it was 2.10 at the time I posted the bet, something fishy going on
 

HTPunter

Premiership Player
Sep 27, 2014
4,819
5,416
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Also any Port or Dogs fans here able to shed some light on if Houston is likely to tag this week and if so who will he tag? Macrae, Bont, Dunkley even??
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
867
1,124
AFL Club
Essendon
Oh well, dunno what's going on with Laird but you can def use this to your advantage.
Laird o28.5 $2.55 b365
Laird u28.5 $1.80 SB
 

RooTed

Senior List
Oct 25, 2017
180
90
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Leaning Crows TT o65.5 $1.89 B365.
Seems bit low as they've been playing OK lately. I expect Cats will knock em over but can they keep them under 66? Am I missing something?
 

Ohh Ok

Team Captain
Jul 31, 2018
542
569
AFL Club
Adelaide
4u Geelong -5.5 (alt line), BTTS 50+ $1.82 (lads)
3u Duncan 20+, Sloane 20+, Dangerfield AGS $1.90 (SB)
1u Dangerfield over 116.5 fantasy $1.87 (SB)
 

Boxhead182

Senior List
Apr 17, 2014
293
134
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
South Florida Bulls
General advice: if you can't understand why a team are favourites or why a line has moved so much to one team, it's often because sharp money is moving the line that way, against your opinion. I'd advise you not to bet on your gut feel in these scenarios because the big dogs who bet full time are moving these lines, especially on game day and these blokes have put a heap of time & effort into their predictive algorithms and it's going to win far more than the average joe's gut feel long term.
I agree to some extent, but the bookies are smart. If they can change the odds and get you to rethink your play just due to odds then they’ve got you. I watch a lot of American sports and it always happens. 80% of the money are on the Rockies blah blah it’s a trap play etc.
 
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