AFL 2019 - AFL Round 17

Who Covers The Line This Week.


  • Total voters
    20
  • Poll closed .

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RooTed

Senior List
Oct 25, 2017
194
96
AFL Club
North Melbourne
#AFL #bettingtips

R17 Leans

WCE -17.5- Coll o158.5
Syd -21.5- Carl u158.5/160.5
Haw-13.5- Fre u156.5/157.5
Ess-NM+2.5 u166.5/172.5
GC-Adel -32.5 u155.5/158.5
Geel -43.5- STK o158.5
Rich-GWS +13.5 o158.5
WB-Melb +11.5 u167.5/170.5
Port-BL No Leans 8.5 164.5/165.5

GL
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,926
3,160
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Some early spots:
Hayward 2+ @3.30, 3+ @10 b365
Wingard 2+ @2.60 Sb
Pendles 20+, Gaff 25+, WHE ATGS, WC win @3.30 sb

added WHE 2+ @4.50... couldnt help myself, teased me for too long
 
Last edited:

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mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,741
1,080
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Got WC at -8.5 but even now wondering how Coll are going to score with Shepherd a good match for De Goey and McGovern and Barrass likely to dominate Cox and Mihocek.

Also surprised NM aren't favs given they have won 5 of their last 6 by 20+ points. Bellchambers out so they'll get flogged in the ruck and both Heppell and Hurley under injury clouds.
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,299
957
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
Got WC at -8.5 but even now wondering how Coll are going to score with Shepherd a good match for De Goey and McGovern and Barrass likely to dominate Cox and Mihocek.

Also surprised NM aren't favs given they have won 5 of their last 6 by 20+ points. Bellchambers out so they'll get flogged in the ruck and both Heppell and Hurley under injury clouds.
Yeah Id keep $10 at -8.5
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,926
3,160
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
You’d want odds of $10 on that Wingard bet. The guy has been rubbish this year.
Ye hasn’t been in any form, but with the forward line on paper, he looms as a key target imo. Think b365 nailed the odds for this market, so see a little value
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,299
957
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
Collingwood have been strong plays as an underdog for a long time. Since 2012 they are a quality 25-11 against the spread getting two-plus goals. Interstate getting more than two goals, the Magpies are a remarkable 11-1 against the spread.
West Coast have covered just three of nine at home off a win of 60-plus points while non-interstate favourites of more than two goals off conceding 50 or fewer cover at just 46%.
 

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Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
5,736
6,412
AFL Club
West Coast
Collingwood have been strong plays as an underdog for a long time. Since 2012 they are a quality 25-11 against the spread getting two-plus goals. Interstate getting more than two goals, the Magpies are a remarkable 11-1 against the spread.
West Coast have covered just three of nine at home off a win of 60-plus points while non-interstate favourites of more than two goals off conceding 50 or fewer cover at just 46%.
Confirmation bias is strong with these selective stats
 

Atavistic

Premiership Player
Jan 22, 2008
4,787
3,339
Hobart
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Team Coco
Got WC at -8.5 but even now wondering how Coll are going to score with Shepherd a good match for De Goey and McGovern and Barrass likely to dominate Cox and Mihocek.

Also surprised NM aren't favs given they have won 5 of their last 6 by 20+ points. Bellchambers out so they'll get flogged in the ruck and both Heppell and Hurley under injury clouds.
Heppell wasn't even named to play.
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,210
1,647
AFL Club
Essendon
He's saying that his analysis (on AFL and racing i'm guessing) has returned him 13.75% profit of the money he has gambled.

As an aside: is it possible to get these statistics (as you've done from betfair targett ) from other agencies like Sportsbet?
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,299
957
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
He's saying that his analysis (on AFL and racing i'm guessing) has returned him 13.75% profit of the money he has gambled.

As an aside: is it possible to get these statistics (as you've done from betfair targett ) from other agencies like Sportsbet?
Its betfairs Afl anylist . If you took all betfairs tips this year these are the results.Those stats BF quoted would only be a small part of the selection process.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
5,736
6,412
AFL Club
West Coast
He's saying that his analysis (on AFL and racing i'm guessing) has returned him 13.75% profit of the money he has gambled.

As an aside: is it possible to get these statistics (as you've done from betfair targett ) from other agencies like Sportsbet?
The overall results don't take away from the fact those stats are still extremely shoehorned
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,210
1,647
AFL Club
Essendon
The overall results don't take away from the fact those stats are still extremely shoehorned
That would depend on whether the analyst is weighing up the same type of data equally from week to week wouldn't it?
But i see what you're saying. The stats he's mentioned are very specific to be given heavy consideration.
 

tombomb

Premiership Player
Sep 8, 2007
3,565
5,347
melbourne
AFL Club
Sydney
Collingwood have been strong plays as an underdog for a long time. Since 2012 they are a quality 25-11 against the spread getting two-plus goals. Interstate getting more than two goals, the Magpies are a remarkable 11-1 against the spread.
West Coast have covered just three of nine at home off a win of 60-plus points while non-interstate favourites of more than two goals off conceding 50 or fewer cover at just 46%.
I just have an image of Lisa outlining her NFL selections to Homer.
 

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