AFL 2019 - AFL Round 19

scottyt2

Senior List
Aug 21, 2006
153
71
melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Duncan U 109 Fantasy
Swallow U 91 Fantasy @3.51 SB. Both should be tagged by the two Clarke's.

Also like Riscitelli 2g @15 B365. Been playing forward since his return.

Miller, Fiorini, Parish 20+ @4.33 SB
 

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Robo87

All Australian
Aug 3, 2014
984
719
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Trying decide if I should go this or tippa/stringer 7+ @11 as well. I fancy one of them kicking 4 or 5
and i fancy the other still kicking 2 or 3.
2u Tippa 2g+ @1.87 b365
1u Tippa 3g+ @3.75 b365
0.5u Tippa 4g+& ess win @6.50 sb
0.5u Tippa 5g+& ess win @16.50 sb
0.2u Tippa 6g+& ess win @52 sb
1u stringer 3g+& ess win @2.70 sb
0.5u stringer 4g+& ess win @5.25 sb
0.3u stringer 5g+& ess win @11 sb
0.2u stringer 6g+& ess win @30.75 sb
1u Brown 2g+ & Ess win @2.25 sb
0.5u Brown 3g+ & Ess win @4.50 sb
0.2u Brown 4g+ & Ess win @11.25 sb
 
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Browney2006

Premiership Player
Jun 4, 2006
3,276
314
AFL Club
Essendon
Have a $200 bonus bet on a ~$18 multi, last leg Fremantle +40.5 for a 3400 collect. Don't really have a good read of this game so do I ride it out or put $1000 on Dogs 40+ at $4.00 on SB and essentially eliminate my risk at a loss ($1000 less return if the bonus bet hits).
Really hoping you hedged...
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,630
971
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Been a good betting round so far.

Geel 1st vs Syd 15th. Line seems a bit low.

I think Geel are overrated, but it's a very average Syd team. I think they'll struggle to hit a winning score and Geel will be better suited the SCG than Syd.
 

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golions

Team Captain
Jul 10, 2000
430
172
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Big middle on offer for next round. Collingwood -33.5 Sportsbet and Suns +46.5 B365
Newbie here - but how do you actually make money off such a deal?

Do you back Collingwood at Sportsbet and Suns at Bet365 both on the line?
That’s not profitable is it?

Or do you do the above and then load up with in game live betting as the game evolves?
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,630
971
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Newbie here - but how do you actually make money off such a deal?

Do you back Collingwood at Sportsbet and Suns at Bet365 both on the line?
That’s not profitable is it?

Or do you do the above and then load up with in game live betting as the game evolves?
You win both bets if Coll wins by anywhere between 34 and 46 points. So a pretty big reward.

Downside if you miss the middle is one bet wins and one bet loses so you pay the vig on your winning bet. So you cop a small loss.

Overall if the middle is large then it's highly profitable.
 

golions

Team Captain
Jul 10, 2000
430
172
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
You win both bets if Coll wins by anywhere between 34 and 46 points. So a pretty big reward.

Downside if you miss the middle is one bet wins and one bet loses so you pay the vig on your winning bet. So you cop a small loss.

Overall if the middle is large then it's highly profitable.
Ah, I see - of course! Thank you - cheers!

EDIT: Bummer - B365 have closed the line now, GC +32.5 now - guess this one is done?
 
Last edited:

TheScream

Senior List
Jul 19, 2016
194
156
AFL Club
GWS
Newbie here - but how do you actually make money off such a deal?

Do you back Collingwood at Sportsbet and Suns at Bet365 both on the line?
That’s not profitable is it?

Or do you do the above and then load up with in game live betting as the game evolves?
Yep what mookieb said. Assuming you get both bets at 1.9 (B365 is slightly higher at 1.91) you're effectively getting odds of $18 for the middle to land. For margins of 13 points TAB usually prices their super margins (especially around the line) at about $5, so it's way over the odds. If the middle was less than a goal it wouldn't be such a good bet.
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
867
1,124
AFL Club
Essendon
I feel like there are some smart footy brains in here but this forum could benefit from a little more structure.
How would some regulars feel about picking the area they feel like they do the best in and post a regular market up every week?
Eg. Ohh Ok: seems to be good on the disposal multis.
targett: the line movements.
Hellboy101: SGM's
NonPhixion: betting on Chad ;)
I feel strong on positional analysis and goalkickers.
Robo87 the_big_sav RooTed etc.
 

golions

Team Captain
Jul 10, 2000
430
172
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Yep what mookieb said. Assuming you get both bets at 1.9 (B365 is slightly higher at 1.91) you're effectively getting odds of $18 for the middle to land. For margins of 13 points TAB usually prices their super margins (especially around the line) at about $5, so it's way over the odds. If the middle was less than a goal it wouldn't be such a good bet.
Ok thanks - just to confirm the GC+46.5 no longer exists at B365? All I can see is +32.5
 
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AFLFootyChick

Team Captain
Apr 6, 2016
466
453
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
If anyone had Zaharakis as an anytime goalscorer at Sportsbet last round, and it meant losing a bet, contact them. Precedent has been set. See Herald Sun article below:

A punter short changed by an AFL umpiring blunder is finally laughing all the way to the bank.

The Herald Sun yesterday revealed the hard luck story of footy fan Corey McKerrow who nailed a five leg multi for more than $12,000, only for a goal umpire to ruin the last leg.

But betting agency Sportsbet this morning made his day — honouring the bet despite the goal umpire’s decision making it officially void.

“I’m super stoked,’’ he said.

“Even the guy from Sportsbet said he thought it was a goal.’’

Mr McKerrow said the unexpected pay out “piped up my August day’’.

“I’ve been off work with a back injury so it couldn’t have come at a better time,’’ he said.

But he admitted at least some of his winnings was likely to be wagered once more.

“Probably a fair chunk of the $12,000 will go back to Sportsbet,’’ he said.

Zaharakis’ shot for goal was clearly over and the goal umpire was in perfect position, but did not make a decision.


Zaharakis’ shot for goal was clearly over and the goal umpire was in perfect position, but did not make a decision.

The formerly unlucky punter was crying poor yesterday after the umpiring blunder spoiled what should have been a miracle AFL bet.

Footy fan Corey McKerrow stood to earn $12,505 for a $5 outlay when he punted on Essendon’s 10 point win against Gold Coast Suns at the weekend.

When four of the five legs of the Sportsbet punt came good, the Hawthorn fan grew nervously excited.

And when Essendon’s David Zaharakis kicked truly in the third term, he should have been celebrating an unlikely windfall.

But an umpiring blunder that saw play-on called — despite the ball clearly sailing over the goal line before being tapped back into play — cost him dearly.
The AFL this week admitted the goal should have been awarded, giving the Bombers more breathing space in an intensely close game and Mr McKerrow a sizeable earner.

But the betting agency has refused to honour a bet he dubbed the “miracle multi blind Freddy would have paid”.

“I was pretty disappointed and to be honest it really should be paid,’’ he said.

“The AFL has admitted the mistake and Sportsbet only pay out under official AFL rules.

“So where does that leave me? Bloody spewing, that’s where mate.’’
Mr McKerrow’s ill-fated multi.

Mr McKerrow’s ill-fated multi above.

Mr McKerrow correctly tipped Suns Rising Star nominee Ben King to boot three goals or more and Bomber Shaun McKernan to kick the same tally.

He also correctly backed Essendon’s Andy McGrath and Gold Coast’s Davis Swallow to kick a goal.

But it was Zaharakis’ unrewarded goal that has left a bad taste in his mouth and a hole in his pocket.

“I had a pretty huge bet on the line and the AFL has admitted fault but no one wants to help me out,’’ he said.

“It was the miracle bet that should have happened but didn’t.’’

The decision not to pay the Zaharakis goal was one of the worst of the AFL season.

Fox Footy cameras showed AFL boss Gillon McLachlan with an awkward look on his face as the umpiring howler was replayed on the big screen during the match.

Zaharakis said the Bombers — who rallied late to win the game — deserved an apology.

Mr McKerrow said he deserved to be paid.

“We were having beers down the pub and about 100 people got wind of the bet and there were some unhappy people when that goal wasn’t paid,’’ he said.

“I can’t get a word out of the AFL and Sportsbet have just wiped me.’’

Rather than collecting more than $12,000, he said he had been offered a $5 bonus bet.

“It should have been paid,’’ he said.

“All year there has been controversy with the goal umpiring.’’

The Herald Sun has contacted Sportsbet and the AFL for comment.
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
867
1,124
AFL Club
Essendon
If anyone had Zaharakis as an anytime goalscorer at Sportsbet last round, and it meant losing a bet, contact them. Precedent has been set. See Herald Sun article below:

A punter short changed by an AFL umpiring blunder is finally laughing all the way to the bank.

The Herald Sun yesterday revealed the hard luck story of footy fan Corey McKerrow who nailed a five leg multi for more than $12,000, only for a goal umpire to ruin the last leg.

But betting agency Sportsbet this morning made his day — honouring the bet despite the goal umpire’s decision making it officially void.

“I’m super stoked,’’ he said.

“Even the guy from Sportsbet said he thought it was a goal.’’

Mr McKerrow said the unexpected pay out “piped up my August day’’.

“I’ve been off work with a back injury so it couldn’t have come at a better time,’’ he said.

But he admitted at least some of his winnings was likely to be wagered once more.

“Probably a fair chunk of the $12,000 will go back to Sportsbet,’’ he said.

Zaharakis’ shot for goal was clearly over and the goal umpire was in perfect position, but did not make a decision.


Zaharakis’ shot for goal was clearly over and the goal umpire was in perfect position, but did not make a decision.

The formerly unlucky punter was crying poor yesterday after the umpiring blunder spoiled what should have been a miracle AFL bet.

Footy fan Corey McKerrow stood to earn $12,505 for a $5 outlay when he punted on Essendon’s 10 point win against Gold Coast Suns at the weekend.

When four of the five legs of the Sportsbet punt came good, the Hawthorn fan grew nervously excited.

And when Essendon’s David Zaharakis kicked truly in the third term, he should have been celebrating an unlikely windfall.

But an umpiring blunder that saw play-on called — despite the ball clearly sailing over the goal line before being tapped back into play — cost him dearly.
The AFL this week admitted the goal should have been awarded, giving the Bombers more breathing space in an intensely close game and Mr McKerrow a sizeable earner.

But the betting agency has refused to honour a bet he dubbed the “miracle multi blind Freddy would have paid”.

“I was pretty disappointed and to be honest it really should be paid,’’ he said.

“The AFL has admitted the mistake and Sportsbet only pay out under official AFL rules.

“So where does that leave me? Bloody spewing, that’s where mate.’’
Mr McKerrow’s ill-fated multi.

Mr McKerrow’s ill-fated multi above.

Mr McKerrow correctly tipped Suns Rising Star nominee Ben King to boot three goals or more and Bomber Shaun McKernan to kick the same tally.

He also correctly backed Essendon’s Andy McGrath and Gold Coast’s Davis Swallow to kick a goal.

But it was Zaharakis’ unrewarded goal that has left a bad taste in his mouth and a hole in his pocket.

“I had a pretty huge bet on the line and the AFL has admitted fault but no one wants to help me out,’’ he said.

“It was the miracle bet that should have happened but didn’t.’’

The decision not to pay the Zaharakis goal was one of the worst of the AFL season.

Fox Footy cameras showed AFL boss Gillon McLachlan with an awkward look on his face as the umpiring howler was replayed on the big screen during the match.

Zaharakis said the Bombers — who rallied late to win the game — deserved an apology.

Mr McKerrow said he deserved to be paid.

“We were having beers down the pub and about 100 people got wind of the bet and there were some unhappy people when that goal wasn’t paid,’’ he said.

“I can’t get a word out of the AFL and Sportsbet have just wiped me.’’

Rather than collecting more than $12,000, he said he had been offered a $5 bonus bet.

“It should have been paid,’’ he said.

“All year there has been controversy with the goal umpiring.’’

The Herald Sun has contacted Sportsbet and the AFL for comment.
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