AFL 2019 - AFL Round 21

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,659
991
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Happy days for "late season tea leaf reading / psychological betting" with 4W 0L over the last 2 rounds. Bit disappointed in the Coll vs GC over which hit but was on target for 200+ at one stage. Missed Freo with Lyon and co under the pump.

Lots of stuff happening this week as you would expect.

It makes me sick, but i'm going to back GC. It's the Q Clash and probably the last game for them to put a bit of pride into their season with a competitive effort. They've got Hawks away and then GWS home past this game. They'll be up for the game, my main concern is they're effort is A+ but they get smashed anyway. I'll split some bets on 1st qtr and half time line plus the full game.

Apparently GWS has had a pact to smash Hawks after the debacle earlier on when Hawks smashed them. Could be a bit of a revenge game. Hawks now out of finals contention and travelling to Canberra for a 0 degree night game. Can't imagine they'll have circled this as one of the games they're looking forward to. Perhaps they mail it in this week before next weeks Jarryd Roughead farewell game.

Port in finals contention and should have good momentum from last week and keen to finally string 2 good games together. Sydney have had a torrid time with 2 heart breakers either side of a loss to Geel. They're super consistent normally but they're team is weak. I think they mail it in this week and target Melb next week or StK for their final win for the season.

I like opposing weak teams off a win this time of year so i'll be backing StK. Freo are 4L away vs teams outside the 8 and StK are 7W at home vs teams outside the 8. Freo often mail it in this time of year.

Nothing due to this time of year, but teams often bounce back after 2 shockers in a row so Ess seems to be of interest.

So think a good chance that Hawks, Syd and Freo mail it in and GC brings a bit of heat to the Q Clash.

Forward looking i'm very keen to oppose GC next week. They'll hopefully be coming off a fiesty, competitive derby and they'll be up against the Hawks coming off a couple of losses, plus i'm expecting this to be the Jarryd Roughead farewell game. Motivation wise I expect both teams to be at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
 

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scottyt2

Senior List
Aug 21, 2006
154
72
melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Jayden Hunt played back last week for those getting on him for goals.

Whitfield O 27.5 Disposals (covered all bar 1 minus tags/injury)
Treloar > Grundy Fantasy (Gawn factor)
@ 3.42 Neds
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,659
991
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Happy days for "late season tea leaf reading / psychological betting" with 4W 0L over the last 2 rounds. Bit disappointed in the Coll vs GC over which hit but was on target for 200+ at one stage. Missed Freo with Lyon and co under the pump.

Lots of stuff happening this week as you would expect.

It makes me sick, but i'm going to back GC. It's the Q Clash and probably the last game for them to put a bit of pride into their season with a competitive effort. They've got Hawks away and then GWS home past this game. They'll be up for the game, my main concern is they're effort is A+ but they get smashed anyway. I'll split some bets on 1st qtr and half time line plus the full game.

Apparently GWS has had a pact to smash Hawks after the debacle earlier on when Hawks smashed them. Could be a bit of a revenge game. Hawks now out of finals contention and travelling to Canberra for a 0 degree night game. Can't imagine they'll have circled this as one of the games they're looking forward to. Perhaps they mail it in this week before next weeks Jarryd Roughead farewell game.

Port in finals contention and should have good momentum from last week and keen to finally string 2 good games together. Sydney have had a torrid time with 2 heart breakers either side of a loss to Geel. They're super consistent normally but they're team is weak. I think they mail it in this week and target Melb next week or StK for their final win for the season.

I like opposing weak teams off a win this time of year so i'll be backing StK. Freo are 4L away vs teams outside the 8 and StK are 7W at home vs teams outside the 8. Freo often mail it in this time of year.

Nothing due to this time of year, but teams often bounce back after 2 shockers in a row so Ess seems to be of interest.

So think a good chance that Hawks, Syd and Freo mail it in and GC brings a bit of heat to the Q Clash.

Forward looking i'm very keen to oppose GC next week. They'll hopefully be coming off a fiesty, competitive derby and they'll be up against the Hawks coming off a couple of losses, plus i'm expecting this to be the Jarryd Roughead farewell game. Motivation wise I expect both teams to be at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Must say the team changes / injuries make the GWS / Hawks game tricky. Hawks have lost McEvoy, Gunston, Impey and Birchall over the last 2 weeks. GWS missing Kelly, Coniglio and importantly Himmelberg and Finlayson from the forward line. If Hawks turn up they are a good chance here. Only half unit on GWS.
 

andwhenitcomes

Senior List
May 2, 2018
284
338
AFL Club
Melbourne
James Worpel under 27.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Neds).

15/19 under this season (although 1/4 in the last 4). In form but GWS is a stingy a side as anyone. Difficult line to hit.
 

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scottyt2

Senior List
Aug 21, 2006
154
72
melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
May is in, Won't he go back? And then someone else pushes up the ground more?
One of Omac, Frost, or May himself will go forward you would think to replace Preuss. But Goodwin has been switching players around a lot lately so who knows Hunt might be forward again.

Wines late in for Port, Robbie Gray will be forward all game in the wet. U 91.5 SB @ 1.80
 

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