Good week for psychological tipstering with a 4W sweep.Bet of the round is Hawks to smash GC. Roughead's final game so expect the Hawks come out pumped while at the end of the spectrum GC are surely deflated after having a crack in the 1st half then a complete capitulation. If they get punished like that in an important game like the derby then there is no hope from them here.
GC last 6 games have seen 3 totals over 200, the Bris game near 200 and the Coll game was on target for 200 at one stage until Coll pulled stumps early. The other game vs Carl saw a total of 174 which is 9 points over the current total. I like the over obviously.
Last chance for Carl to get a win this season so I think they will be super motivated whereas StK have got their last season win vs Freo in a nail biter. I don't think StK were great against a weak Freo team so Carl should get up here at the MCG.
Ess being slaughtered in the press. It's rare to see a team pump out 4 shockers so I expect them to come out strong and I don't think that Freo have the scoring power to cover if the line leaks out to say -18.5.
Just on ratings think Bris should beat Geel. In better form and playing at home.
I'd wait on the Mundy one. Word is Sandiballs won't play meaning that Darcy goes into the ruck and Mundy plays CHF. And also, Ross Lyon teams in R23 are historically, full of kids and chaos.Anyone know what sat Toby Greene out in the last quarter yesterday? He is $2.00 for 25+ and $4.33 for 30+ at SB. Was around $2 or so for 30 yesterday.
Also David Mundy was $10 into $5 for 30+ during the weekend. Got 30 touches and is $3.25 for 25+ and $8 for 30+.
Early in the week but looks good value.
Yeah that teams don't play x bad games in a row strategy has to pay off eventually......right....right?Good week for psychological tipstering with a 4W sweep.
Round 23 is by far the best betting round of the year. Always plenty of opportunities, but my ideal scenario's for this round haven't played out unfortunately. Alot of games contingent on results as well so might need to see some results before committing on later games.
I'll be looking at teams with something to play for (not all of these are immediately obvious) and teams likely to be playing bruise free, high scoring, dead rubbers.
Yeah was thinking similar things, but more taking them at an extended line, close to the +40 region.Anybody else fancy the Gold Coast this week?
They have been belted three weeks in a row, all away from home.
Last time they played at Carrara they got within two goals of Essendon.
If you look at the age and career games played of the 22s who played yesterday, GC are not much less experienced than GWS.
In fact the Giants had four players with under ten games on the park yesterday, the GC only had two.
Ten games is an arbitrary figure of course but you get the point I'm making.
I've watched the Giants the past two weeks and after half time they have been abysmal.
They seriously looked like they had given up in the last quarter against the Dogs.
Strange things can happen in the final round of the season...
There may be some value in the second half margin markets.Yeah was thinking similar things, but more taking them at an extended line, close to the +40 region.
Fantastic analysis, thanks champ!There may be some value in the second half margin markets.
Look at how GWS have performed in second halves over the past four weeks.
Even if they get up a good lead in the first half against the Suns, I can see GC winning the second half.
The Giants aren't playing for percentage, they are miles clear of Essendon.
So long as they win, they get a home final.
If they carve the Suns up early, why not put the cue in the rack and coast home from there?
Right now the second half margin odds for GC on SB are
Of course the Suns could phone this game in as well, so it is a speculative bet, but those odds are pretty juicy.