AFL 2019 - AFL ROUND 23

(Log in to remove this ad.)

maskmcgee

Club Legend
Feb 25, 2017
2,889
2,781
The Windy Apple
AFL Club
Essendon
I like all 9 favourites for $9.87.

Who has the most on the line this week? Richmond, West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood, GWS and the Dogs can't afford to lose this week. $3.76
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
893
1,159
AFL Club
Essendon
The bombers are riddled with players who playing injured.
Now we're cemented in the 8, i'd expect a fair few changes.
Pies playing for the top 4, line looks good to me (-14.5), Dogs, WC, Geelong = $3.60.
 

FadingTheFave

Rookie
Jun 25, 2016
21
14
AFL Club
St Kilda
Reckon Essendon could get smashed like they did against Dogs considering they have nothing to gain and also coming back from Perth on 6 day break.

GWS might not be too interested in covering the line since they also cannot move up the ladder and are in putrid form.

Hawks line is interesting since they are still in contention for finals and WCE could only manage a 10pt win over the terrible Crows 2 weeks ago.
 

Helloo Newman

Draftee
Jul 31, 2019
3
9
AFL Club
Sydney
Anyone know what sat Toby Greene out in the last quarter yesterday? He is $2.00 for 25+ and $4.33 for 30+ at SB. Was around $2 or so for 30 yesterday.

Also David Mundy was $10 into $5 for 30+ during the weekend. Got 30 touches and is $3.25 for 25+ and $8 for 30+.

Early in the week but looks good value.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,659
991
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Bet of the round is Hawks to smash GC. Roughead's final game so expect the Hawks come out pumped while at the end of the spectrum GC are surely deflated after having a crack in the 1st half then a complete capitulation. If they get punished like that in an important game like the derby then there is no hope from them here.

GC last 6 games have seen 3 totals over 200, the Bris game near 200 and the Coll game was on target for 200 at one stage until Coll pulled stumps early. The other game vs Carl saw a total of 174 which is 9 points over the current total. I like the over obviously.

Last chance for Carl to get a win this season so I think they will be super motivated whereas StK have got their last season win vs Freo in a nail biter. I don't think StK were great against a weak Freo team so Carl should get up here at the MCG.

Ess being slaughtered in the press. It's rare to see a team pump out 4 shockers so I expect them to come out strong and I don't think that Freo have the scoring power to cover if the line leaks out to say -18.5.

Just on ratings think Bris should beat Geel. In better form and playing at home.
Good week for psychological tipstering with a 4W sweep.

Round 23 is by far the best betting round of the year. Always plenty of opportunities, but my ideal scenario's for this round haven't played out unfortunately. Alot of games contingent on results as well so might need to see some results before committing on later games.

I'll be looking at teams with something to play for (not all of these are immediately obvious) and teams likely to be playing bruise free, high scoring, dead rubbers.
 

JuniorWatch

All Australian
Jun 13, 2016
893
1,159
AFL Club
Essendon
Anyone know what sat Toby Greene out in the last quarter yesterday? He is $2.00 for 25+ and $4.33 for 30+ at SB. Was around $2 or so for 30 yesterday.

Also David Mundy was $10 into $5 for 30+ during the weekend. Got 30 touches and is $3.25 for 25+ and $8 for 30+.

Early in the week but looks good value.
I'd wait on the Mundy one. Word is Sandiballs won't play meaning that Darcy goes into the ruck and Mundy plays CHF. And also, Ross Lyon teams in R23 are historically, full of kids and chaos.

Dunno what happened to Greene but his TOG went down after HT and he spent the half down forward which coincided with the Giants getting flogged. Smells like an injury to me but that value might be too hard to resist.
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
27,989
20,010
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Good week for psychological tipstering with a 4W sweep.

Round 23 is by far the best betting round of the year. Always plenty of opportunities, but my ideal scenario's for this round haven't played out unfortunately. Alot of games contingent on results as well so might need to see some results before committing on later games.

I'll be looking at teams with something to play for (not all of these are immediately obvious) and teams likely to be playing bruise free, high scoring, dead rubbers.
Yeah that teams don't play x bad games in a row strategy has to pay off eventually......right....right?

#martingale
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,202
3,319
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Anybody else fancy the Gold Coast this week?

They have been belted three weeks in a row, all away from home.

Last time they played at Carrara they got within two goals of Essendon.

If you look at the age and career games played of the 22s who played yesterday, GC are not much less experienced than GWS.

In fact the Giants had four players with under ten games on the park yesterday, the GC only had two.

Ten games is an arbitrary figure of course but you get the point I'm making.

I've watched the Giants the past two weeks and after half time they have been abysmal.

They seriously looked like they had given up in the last quarter against the Dogs.

Strange things can happen in the final round of the season...
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
808
424
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Anybody else fancy the Gold Coast this week?

They have been belted three weeks in a row, all away from home.

Last time they played at Carrara they got within two goals of Essendon.

If you look at the age and career games played of the 22s who played yesterday, GC are not much less experienced than GWS.

In fact the Giants had four players with under ten games on the park yesterday, the GC only had two.

Ten games is an arbitrary figure of course but you get the point I'm making.

I've watched the Giants the past two weeks and after half time they have been abysmal.

They seriously looked like they had given up in the last quarter against the Dogs.

Strange things can happen in the final round of the season...
Yeah was thinking similar things, but more taking them at an extended line, close to the +40 region.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,202
3,319
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Yeah was thinking similar things, but more taking them at an extended line, close to the +40 region.
There may be some value in the second half margin markets.

Look at how GWS have performed in second halves over the past four weeks.

Even if they get up a good lead in the first half against the Suns, I can see GC winning the second half.

The Giants aren't playing for percentage, they are miles clear of Essendon.

So long as they win, they get a home final.

If they carve the Suns up early, why not put the cue in the rack and coast home from there?

Right now the second half margin odds for GC on SB are

1-12 $10
13-24 $23
25-36 $71
37+ $276

Of course the Suns could phone this game in as well, so it is a speculative bet, but those odds are pretty juicy.
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
808
424
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
There may be some value in the second half margin markets.

Look at how GWS have performed in second halves over the past four weeks.

Even if they get up a good lead in the first half against the Suns, I can see GC winning the second half.

The Giants aren't playing for percentage, they are miles clear of Essendon.

So long as they win, they get a home final.

If they carve the Suns up early, why not put the cue in the rack and coast home from there?

Right now the second half margin odds for GC on SB are

1-12 $10
13-24 $23
25-36 $71
37+ $276

Of course the Suns could phone this game in as well, so it is a speculative bet, but those odds are pretty juicy.
Fantastic analysis, thanks champ!

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Top Bottom