AFL 2019 - AFL ROUND 23

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jack 23

Team Captain
Apr 22, 2017
546
243
AFL Club
Geelong
wow lol. Ross into $3 to be st kilda next coach.

What do St Kilda fans think?

Didnt he walkout on your club? not sure if fans would really support his return.. ? I wouldnt.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,662
1,002
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
This round isn't what I hoped it would be. Lot's of unknowns and lot's of teams where i'm unsure what sort of effort they will produce - it could go either way.

So Coll need to win for a top 4 spot. Ess are pretty well just locked in. Zaha out, probably Hooker out and potentially Heppell gets a spell. I'll back Coll -13.5 at TB and -16.5.

Syd vs Saints is a dead rubber so i'll go the overs and hope for a pressure free shoot out. I want to bet Syd, but don't like weak teams coming off a win at this time of the season (potential to put the cue in the rack). Saints have gotten a win then a close loss so realistically that might be them done for the year as well.

NM vs Melb is tricky. Total seem already high given Melb neither score well or give up too many points. They have been savaged in the media so I expect that they'll turn up for the game here, but they might just mail it in and write this year off. I expect them to cover, but it virtually wrecks my weekend if I bet on Melb and they lose so i'll probably just look on.

I think Carl winning last week means season over for them, while Cats are coming off a loss and need to win for top 2. The line looks a little higher than I expected but i'll just go -29.5 on the basis of the different levels of importance of the game to both teams.

I fully expect GWS to bounce back from 2 shockers and should get a few players back. GC also might be keen to put some effort in given the games at home but they also might just get smashed like they do most weeks.

WC are likely going to see Geel beat Carl but if they smash the Hawks and Rich smash Bris then they could still make top 2. Hawks need to win for a potential finals spot. I think the line is big enough that Hawks cover, but not sure on them coming off the carnival like game last week against GC.

WB are flying. Ade will either bounce back strongly here or show the white flag and get smashed. They've only won 2 of their last 7 (GC and StK) so they're obviously playing terribly. Might leave it or chuck a few high margin WB 2nd half win bets on.

I'll back Rich to beat Bris at -13.5. They're very hard to beat at the MCG and they'll likely need to win for top 2. I think Bris have a letdown spot here. 9 wins in a row and a nail biter last week. They'll be virtually locked in for top 2 if WC don't smash Hawks so think Rich get it done here.

Port vs Freo is another question mark. Port will be keen to rebound after being destroyed, but I doubt they are playing for finals. Freo will either put in a massive effort like most teams with new coaches or a bit of a protest vote given the news seemed out of the blue and they might mail it in for the last game given it's on the road as well. Seems hard to pick.
 

benji21

Team Captain
Apr 2, 2016
577
305
AFL Club
Fremantle
Leaning towards Freo get thumped by Port. I still believe most if not all the players supported Ross Lyon, they will be a bit flat after the dumping.
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,208
3,325
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I'm one of those crazy people who believe the AFL sometimes engineers results to help improve its bottom line.

Feel free to ignore the rest of this post if you believe that the AFL is clean and concerned more about fair football than $$$.

Does the AFL want two interstate preliminary finals? I don't think so.

Does the AFL want sellouts and rivalries to dominate the finals? I think so.

Given the current shape of the ladder, what would be the ideal outcome for the AFL this weekend?

Whatever leads (or is likely to lead) to:

i) 1 Vic prelim
ii) Brisbane success (nobody bandwagons like QLDers, trust me, I've lived there)
iii) Rivalries

Here is an example of a ladder which would suit all of this:

Brisbane
Geelong
Coll/Rich
West coast

Coll/Rich
GWS
Dogs
Essendon

Leading to:

Brisbane v West Coast (a sellout at the Gabba)
Geel v Coll/Rich (a sellout at the 'G and a guaranteed Vic prelim)

Coll/Rich vs Essendon (a sellout at the 'G)
GWS Dogs (a rekindling of the closest thing these teams have to a rivalry)

So I thought through it and it seems like there are a few ways for this to happen.

They all revolve around

Essendon losing, which means Collinwood winning.
Brisbane winning, which means Richmond losing.
Bulldogs winning

If these things happen, it doesn't really matter what occurs in the Geel/Carl and Eagles/Hawks games, the ideal matchups will still occur...

...unless Carlton beat Geelong and then the AFL will need Hawthorn to roll West Coast or else we likely end up with two interstate prelims.

So here is my plan:

1) Multi Collingwood into Brisbane into Bulldogs @ $5

2) If Carlton somehow beat Geelong, then load up on Hawthorn. And I mean LOAD UP.

3) If Essendon somehow beat Collingwood, throw my plans out the door and shut up shop until 2020.
 

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,194
1,166
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I'm one of those crazy people who believe the AFL sometimes engineers results to help improve its bottom line.

Feel free to ignore the rest of this post if you believe that the AFL is clean and concerned more about fair football than $$$.

Does the AFL want two interstate preliminary finals? I don't think so.

Does the AFL want sellouts and rivalries to dominate the finals? I think so.

Given the current shape of the ladder, what would be the ideal outcome for the AFL this weekend?

Whatever leads (or is likely to lead) to:

i) 1 Vic prelim
ii) Brisbane success (nobody bandwagons like QLDers, trust me, I've lived there)
iii) Rivalries

Here is an example of a ladder which would suit all of this:

Brisbane
Geelong
Coll/Rich
West coast

Coll/Rich
GWS
Dogs
Essendon

Leading to:

Brisbane v West Coast (a sellout at the Gabba)
Geel v Coll/Rich (a sellout at the 'G and a guaranteed Vic prelim)

Coll/Rich vs Essendon (a sellout at the 'G)
GWS Dogs (a rekindling of the closest thing these teams have to a rivalry)

So I thought through it and it seems like there are a few ways for this to happen.

They all revolve around

Essendon losing, which means Collinwood winning.
Brisbane winning, which means Richmond losing.
Bulldogs winning

If these things happen, it doesn't really matter what occurs in the Geel/Carl and Eagles/Hawks games, the ideal matchups will still occur...

...unless Carlton beat Geelong and then the AFL will need Hawthorn to roll West Coast or else we likely end up with two interstate prelims.

So here is my plan:

1) Multi Collingwood into Brisbane into Bulldogs @ $5

2) If Carlton somehow beat Geelong, then load up on Hawthorn. And I mean LOAD UP.

3) If Essendon somehow beat Collingwood, throw my plans out the door and shut up shop until 2020.
not sure how to feel about this. if all the favourites win this week, the AFL would get exactly the same result. Geelong would play Richmond (1 v 4 instead of 2 v 3) and West Coast would play Brisbane. The elim finals wouldn't change either....
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,662
1,002
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I'm one of those crazy people who believe the AFL sometimes engineers results to help improve its bottom line.

Feel free to ignore the rest of this post if you believe that the AFL is clean and concerned more about fair football than $$$.

Does the AFL want two interstate preliminary finals? I don't think so.

Does the AFL want sellouts and rivalries to dominate the finals? I think so.

Given the current shape of the ladder, what would be the ideal outcome for the AFL this weekend?

Whatever leads (or is likely to lead) to:

i) 1 Vic prelim
ii) Brisbane success (nobody bandwagons like QLDers, trust me, I've lived there)
iii) Rivalries

Here is an example of a ladder which would suit all of this:

Brisbane
Geelong
Coll/Rich
West coast

Coll/Rich
GWS
Dogs
Essendon

Leading to:

Brisbane v West Coast (a sellout at the Gabba)
Geel v Coll/Rich (a sellout at the 'G and a guaranteed Vic prelim)

Coll/Rich vs Essendon (a sellout at the 'G)
GWS Dogs (a rekindling of the closest thing these teams have to a rivalry)

So I thought through it and it seems like there are a few ways for this to happen.

They all revolve around

Essendon losing, which means Collinwood winning.
Brisbane winning, which means Richmond losing.
Bulldogs winning

If these things happen, it doesn't really matter what occurs in the Geel/Carl and Eagles/Hawks games, the ideal matchups will still occur...

...unless Carlton beat Geelong and then the AFL will need Hawthorn to roll West Coast or else we likely end up with two interstate prelims.

So here is my plan:

1) Multi Collingwood into Brisbane into Bulldogs @ $5

2) If Carlton somehow beat Geelong, then load up on Hawthorn. And I mean LOAD UP.

3) If Essendon somehow beat Collingwood, throw my plans out the door and shut up shop until 2020.
Given how incompetent the AFL is given they can't even get the MRP or the throw up rules right, I doubt they would have the ability to engineer Gold Coast losing let alone the above results.

I do wonder if they have a hand in players getting off charges with the Brownlow of finals / GF on the line though.
 

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Areyoufireal

Team Captain
Jan 6, 2011
392
116
Darwin
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
NT THUNDER
Syd vs Saints is a dead rubber so i'll go the overs and hope for a pressure free shoot out. I want to bet Syd, but don't like weak teams coming off a win at this time of the season (potential to put the cue in the rack). Saints have gotten a win then a close loss so realistically that might be them done for the year as well.
No bonus points for the ol stalwarts in KJack and Mcveighs retirement games along the Big Buddys 300th? Outlandish!
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,208
3,325
AFL Club
North Melbourne
not sure how to feel about this. if all the favourites win this week, the AFL would get exactly the same result. Geelong would play Richmond (1 v 4 instead of 2 v 3) and West Coast would play Brisbane. The elim finals wouldn't change either....
This is an excellent point. They would still get all four desirable matches, plus one guaranteed vic prelim.

Perhaps the smarter strategy would be to bet on the favourite in each relevant match, one by one, unless and until a favourite loses.

If you rolled over your bets from one match to the next, and each of the five relevant favourites won, you'd end up around $3.60 based on current odds.

Pies -> Cats -> Eagles -> Dogs -> Tigers

And then if one of them lost, adjust the following bets accordingly (e.g. Cats lose then load up on Hawks).
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,208
3,325
AFL Club
North Melbourne
if all the favourites win this week, the AFL would get exactly the same result. Geelong would play Richmond (1 v 4 instead of 2 v 3) and West Coast would play Brisbane. The elim finals wouldn't change either....
I have thought more about this, and there is a problem.

If Richmond beat Brisbane by more than a certain amount, they will leapfrog them on the ladder.

Brisbane For 1949 Against 1612 % 120.9
Richmond For 1810 Against 1609 % 112.5

Quick back of an envelope style calculations lead me to believe the required margin is around 50 points.

In theory if Richmond are serious about winning the flag -- and why wouldn't they be -- then they'll be gunning for Top 2.

Brisbane lost by big margins twice at the start of the year, but Richmond haven't spanked any good teams by that much in 2019.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,662
1,002
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I have thought more about this, and there is a problem.

If Richmond beat Brisbane by more than a certain amount, they will leapfrog them on the ladder.

Brisbane For 1949 Against 1612 % 120.9
Richmond For 1810 Against 1609 % 112.5

Quick back of an envelope style calculations lead me to believe the required margin is around 50 points.

In theory if Richmond are serious about winning the flag -- and why wouldn't they be -- then they'll be gunning for Top 2.

Brisbane lost by big margins twice at the start of the year, but Richmond haven't spanked any good teams by that much in 2019.
You also have to take into account WC. They are 3.2% ahead of Rich and expected to beat Hawks by 30 odd points.
 

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,194
1,166
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
ok so I've conducted some analysis that might be useful for this week, given there are a couple top 8 teams playing each other and a few bottom 8 teams playing off. the purpose was to see that the assumption that 'dead-rubbers' are higher scoring than their counterparts holds true, which may be obvious to some, but here's some data to support the thesis. What I've done is taken the average last round total of top 8 teams playing each other and vice-versa and then compared this to their average totals up until the last round.
2018:
2 Top 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 158
2 Top 8 teams average SEASON total: 167.6
2017:
2 Top 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 166.5
2 Top 8 teams average SEASON total: 180.9
For both years the sample size is 4, and im rounding values up or down to the nearest decimal. Now, for what im more interested in is the bottom 8 teams.

2018:
2 Bot 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 212.3
2 Bot 8 teams average SEASON total: 165.4
2017:
2 Bot 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 193.3
2 Bot 8 teams average SEASON total: 183
In both years we have a sample size of 6 teams here.

What's interesting to note is that this weekend includes 4 top 8 teams playing off and 6 bottom 8 teams playing off. Use this data however you wish. Personally I'm not much of a totals man, but there are some players i will be looking at for goal-scorer markets.
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,208
3,325
AFL Club
North Melbourne
ok so I've conducted some analysis that might be useful for this week, given there are a couple top 8 teams playing each other and a few bottom 8 teams playing off. the purpose was to see that the assumption that 'dead-rubbers' are higher scoring than their counterparts holds true, which may be obvious to some, but here's some data to support the thesis. What I've done is taken the average last round total of top 8 teams playing each other and vice-versa and then compared this to their average totals up until the last round.
2018:
2 Top 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 158
2 Top 8 teams average SEASON total: 167.6
2017:
2 Top 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 166.5
2 Top 8 teams average SEASON total: 180.9
For both years the sample size is 4, and im rounding values up or down to the nearest decimal. Now, for what im more interested in is the bottom 8 teams.

2018:
2 Bot 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 212.3
2 Bot 8 teams average SEASON total: 165.4
2017:
2 Bot 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 193.3
2 Bot 8 teams average SEASON total: 183
In both years we have a sample size of 6 teams here.

What's interesting to note is that this weekend includes 4 top 8 teams playing off and 6 bottom 8 teams playing off. Use this data however you wish. Personally I'm not much of a totals man, but there are some players i will be looking at for goal-scorer markets.
Assuming that your maths is solid (I'm too lazy to check) then this is an excellent analysis, thank you.
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,208
3,325
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Following on from NonPhixion 's post.

2018 Rd 23 matches involving two non-finalists:

Port (89) vs Essendon (111) total 200
Carl (61) vs Adel (165) total 226
StK (94) vs North (117) total 211

All 200+

If you were to multi the three relevant matches this week for 190+ in each you would get odds of around $150 by my maths.

Somebody talk me out of it.
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,211
763
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
Market Movers

i apologise for not having spread sheet , PC Crash

Collingwood -14.5 1.9 > -19.5 1.85
Sydney -14.5 1.9 > -15.5 1.9
North -24.5 1.9 > -25.5 1.9
GWS -48.5 1.9 > -50.5 1.9
Bulldogs -17.5 1.9 > -18.5 1.95
Port -16.5 1.9 > -17.5 1.9
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,662
1,002
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Forgive me for my ignorance , I have read most of your psychological posts but have not seen any pre match bets ?
I'm just sharing an opinion on a different approach to betting on games. I have been posting in general terms and have been betting at different times depending on where I see the line moving, but i'd say it's pretty obvious that i'm betting on the game.

Personally I would have thought posts like the ones below give a pretty good indication of my pre-match bets.
Forward looking i'm very keen to oppose GC next week. They'll hopefully be coming off a fiesty, competitive derby and they'll be up against the Hawks coming off a couple of losses, plus i'm expecting this to be the Jarryd Roughead farewell game. Motivation wise I expect both teams to be at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Bet of the round is Hawks to smash GC. Roughead's final game so expect the Hawks come out pumped while at the end of the spectrum GC are surely deflated after having a crack in the 1st half then a complete capitulation. If they get punished like that in an important game like the derby then there is no hope from them here.

GC last 6 games have seen 3 totals over 200, the Bris game near 200 and the Coll game was on target for 200 at one stage until Coll pulled stumps early. The other game vs Carl saw a total of 174 which is 9 points over the current total. I like the over obviously.
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
28,058
20,103
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Would have thought this was a bet in Rd 21 too but maybe it wasn't as it was a loser?

Nothing due to this time of year, but teams often bounce back after 2 shockers in a row so Ess seems to be of interest.
 

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