AFL 2019 - AFL ROUND 23

HTPunter

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2014
5,102
5,769
AFL Club
North Melbourne
This round isn't what I hoped it would be. Lot's of unknowns and lot's of teams where i'm unsure what sort of effort they will produce - it could go either way.
Yep, that's betting

So Coll need to win for a top 4 spot. Ess are pretty well just locked in. Zaha out, probably Hooker out and potentially Heppell gets a spell. I'll back Coll -13.5 at TB and -16.5.
Nice, some confidence here

Syd vs Saints is a dead rubber so i'll go the overs and hope for a pressure free shoot out. I want to bet Syd, but don't like weak teams coming off a win at this time of the season (potential to put the cue in the rack). Saints have gotten a win then a close loss so realistically that might be them done for the year as well.
Potential cue in the rack v might be done for the year

NM vs Melb is tricky. Total seem already high given Melb neither score well or give up too many points. They have been savaged in the media so I expect that they'll turn up for the game here, but they might just mail it in and write this year off. I expect them to cover, but it virtually wrecks my weekend if I bet on Melb and they lose so i'll probably just look on.
Expect them to turn up, but they might mail it in. All bases covered.

I think Carl winning last week means season over for them, while Cats are coming off a loss and need to win for top 2. The line looks a little higher than I expected but i'll just go -29.5 on the basis of the different levels of importance of the game to both teams.
Nice, some confidence here

I fully expect GWS to bounce back from 2 shockers and should get a few players back. GC also might be keen to put some effort in given the games at home but they also might just get smashed like they do most weeks.
They might put in some effort, but they might get smashed. Well excuse me while I pick up my jaw from the floor!

WC are likely going to see Geel beat Carl but if they smash the Hawks and Rich smash Bris then they could still make top 2. Hawks need to win for a potential finals spot. I think the line is big enough that Hawks cover, but not sure on them coming off the carnival like game last week against GC.
Not sure. Not good.

WB are flying. Ade will either bounce back strongly here or show the white flag and get smashed. They've only won 2 of their last 7 (GC and StK) so they're obviously playing terribly. Might leave it or chuck a few high margin WB 2nd half win bets on.
Yes, absolutely Adelaide will either bounce back or get smashed. I have no idea what other possible options there are?

I'll back Rich to beat Bris at -13.5. They're very hard to beat at the MCG and they'll likely need to win for top 2. I think Bris have a letdown spot here. 9 wins in a row and a nail biter last week. They'll be virtually locked in for top 2 if WC don't smash Hawks so think Rich get it done here.
Nice, some confidence

Port vs Freo is another question mark. Port will be keen to rebound after being destroyed, but I doubt they are playing for finals. Freo will either put in a massive effort like most teams with new coaches or a bit of a protest vote given the news seemed out of the blue and they might mail it in for the last game given it's on the road as well. Seems hard to pick.
The Ultimate Mighty Might v Mighty Might
Why not just post the 3 games you like rather than ramble on about might get smashed/might play well for the other games - yes, All options are covered now, time to quote other posters to brag how well you did.
 

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mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,665
1,006
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Why not just post the 3 games you like rather than ramble on about might get smashed/might play well for the other games - yes, All options are covered now, time to quote other posters to brag how well you did.
Although I think Breust will be the one to cash in, small forwards love the Suns. Couldnt pass up the odds for Gunston though considering his odds for 5 were 1 every 3 years essentially.

So it might be Breust cashing in or maybe Gunston or maybe Breust? Let's cover our bases on that one.

I'm with you though, don't trust Battle. Heat map still shows largely defensive 50 possessions last week, despite managing a goal... still $2.50 for AGS on Lads though.

I don't trust Battle, but yeah look at those juicy $2.50 AGS odds...
Anyone got any ideas on who Weitering gets out of Bruce/Membrey?

I'd think one is a decent chance without Jones to have a 3 goal game.

Bruce to kick 3 or maybe Membrey or maybe Bruce...
Round 23 this year is far more complicated than previous years that have been relatively straight forward, hence I have the view that some games could be either way. Big deal. Feel free to ignore my posts that cover all options and i'll ignore yours that do the same.
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
822
433
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Why not just post the 3 games you like rather than ramble on about might get smashed/might play well for the other games - yes, All options are covered now, time to quote other posters to brag how well you did.
Why spend so long analyzing someone's post then rambling on about you're criticism.
Punt or gtfo

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iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
28,112
20,159
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
so much bickering on here lol, if a guy wants to post a long winded analysis for us good on him, at least he's having a crack
It's a punting forum mate - if someone wants to tout there 'psychological' betting strategy fine but that doesn't mean they are exempt from reasoned critical analysis.
 

pharmafella

Rookie
Oct 21, 2015
22
44
AFL Club
Collingwood
I would prefer every poster who thinks they have a good idea feels comfortable posting it rather than worrying if they are going to get quoted and deconstructed because people think their methodology is invalid. If you don't like the reasoning or the analysis just don't tail the bet or don't reply to it. NonPhixon's analysis that suggests round 23 is higher scoring for teams out of finals contention shows that there is at least a small amount of merit in taking psychological factors into account.
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
28,112
20,159
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
There is sub-forum available for those who wish to simply post/list their bets - all bets on the main site should be open to reasonable analysis/criticism IMHO.

To my mind, saying side A won't perform badly x, y, z games in a row and then claiming a psychological bet win when they do get up doesn't pass the sniff test.

It is also super confusing to the average punter when you make a claim like this:

Port vs Freo is another question mark. Port will be keen to rebound after being destroyed, but I doubt they are playing for finals. Freo will either put in a massive effort like most teams with new coaches or a bit of a protest vote given the news seemed out of the blue and they might mail it in for the last game given it's on the road as well. Seems hard to pick.

But then place two bets on the game in the limited bets you post before the event despite having a bit each way on every game on the round.
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
822
433
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
There is sub-forum available for those who wish to simply post/list their bets - all bets on the main site should be open to reasonable analysis/criticism IMHO.

To my mind, saying side A won't perform badly x, y, z games in a row and then claiming a psychological bet win when they do get up doesn't pass the sniff test.

It is also super confusing to the average punter when you make a claim like this:

Port vs Freo is another question mark. Port will be keen to rebound after being destroyed, but I doubt they are playing for finals. Freo will either put in a massive effort like most teams with new coaches or a bit of a protest vote given the news seemed out of the blue and they might mail it in for the last game given it's on the road as well. Seems hard to pick.

But then place two bets on the game in the limited bets you post before the event despite having a bit each way on every game on the round.
So this isn't supposed to be a forum where people post and list their bets?


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mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,665
1,006
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
There is sub-forum available for those who wish to simply post/list their bets - all bets on the main site should be open to reasonable analysis/criticism IMHO.

To my mind, saying side A won't perform badly x, y, z games in a row and then claiming a psychological bet win when they do get up doesn't pass the sniff test.

It is also super confusing to the average punter when you make a claim like this:

Port vs Freo is another question mark. Port will be keen to rebound after being destroyed, but I doubt they are playing for finals. Freo will either put in a massive effort like most teams with new coaches or a bit of a protest vote given the news seemed out of the blue and they might mail it in for the last game given it's on the road as well. Seems hard to pick.

But then place two bets on the game in the limited bets you post before the event despite having a bit each way on every game on the round.
Most teams respond well after changing coaches. However, it's the last game of the season and the players might be shocked because it seemed like a surprise move.

I've given it some thought and think Port will win this easily. Monday undecided, Wednesday decided.
 

RooTed

Senior List
Oct 25, 2017
187
92
AFL Club
North Melbourne
New coach theory for Freo is stupid. Usually works for a caretaker coach that has a chance of showing he is the best choice to be permanent. This is clearly not the case. They may as well made Fyfe captain coach for the one game..

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mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,227
3,357
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Honestly this is one of my favourites boards, on any forum, and I appreciate the different posters here.

I have gotten to know the different styles and personalities of the regulars, it almost like an online TAB for me.

Every now and then somebody posts something which I like and I tail. Some win, some don't, it is all punting for me, a bit of fun.

Some of my analyses have proven to be complete crap. Some have made me look like a genius. Most here are in the same boat.

It is the punting board. Punting should be fun. Unless you consider yourself a pro in which case why would you share your tips for free?

I say keep the banter coming, as long as it is all in good spirit :thumbsu:
 
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mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,227
3,357
AFL Club
North Melbourne
By the way, the odds for my non-finalist total points multis have come in so much that I can already cash out for a profit.

In red below is my bet Tuesday night, orange is the odds they had come into by yesterday, in green is current odds.
I put a (very) small amount on each of the following (x3 = Syd/Stk, North/Mel, Port/Freo):

170+ (x3) @ 12/1 (now 9/1) (now 6.40)
180+ (x3) @ 40/1 (now 27/1) (now 20)
190+ (x3) @ 150/1 (now 101/1) (now 65)
200+ (x3) @ 780/1 (now 460/1) (now 286)
On each of these multies SB are offering a cashout at about 50% above my bet.

They were only small bets and I'm in it for the fun so I'm going to run with it no matter what the cashout option.

Especially because the odds have come in way more than 50%. What kind of mugs take SB cashouts anyway? Terrible value.
 
Sep 4, 2003
11,733
14,188
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Balmain, GreenBay, Edmonton, Celtic
This is a forum for being critical of others and the manner in which they post their bets or far worse give a general opinion of AFL games.

Posting your own bets is frowned upon.
I’ll fix that statement for you.

Posting your bets after the fact is frowned upon.
Posting obvious fraudulent bets is frowned upon.
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,215
771
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
By the way, the odds for my non-finalist total points multis have come in so much that I can already cash out for a profit.

In red below is my bet Tuesday night, orange is the odds they had come into by yesterday, in green is current odds.

On each of these multies SB are offering a cashout at about 50% above my bet.

They were only small bets and I'm in it for the fun so I'm going to run with it no matter what the cashout option.

Especially because the odds have come in way more than 50%. What kind of mugs take SB cashouts anyway? Terrible value.
Absolutely terrible value.Keep enjoy the ride
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
822
433
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
By the way, the odds for my non-finalist total points multis have come in so much that I can already cash out for a profit.

In red below is my bet Tuesday night, orange is the odds they had come into by yesterday, in green is current odds.

On each of these multies SB are offering a cashout at about 50% above my bet.

They were only small bets and I'm in it for the fun so I'm going to run with it no matter what the cashout option.

Especially because the odds have come in way more than 50%. What kind of mugs take SB cashouts anyway? Terrible value.
I would definitely rake the cash out there

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