Almost a done deal. Jared Rivers to go with him
still something going on with Ross Lyon maybe...... never know.
if i was on the panel I would choose Rob Harvey. might have a punt on that basis.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Almost a done deal. Jared Rivers to go with him
wow lol. Ross into $3 to be st kilda next coach.
What do St Kilda fans think?
Didnt he walkout on your club? not sure if fans would really support his return.. ? I wouldnt.
Anyone else not see anyway Geelong, West Coast and Richmond lose? All massive games to ensure top 4/first home final... $2.20 for them multid up.
I'm one of those crazy people who believe the AFL sometimes engineers results to help improve its bottom line.
Feel free to ignore the rest of this post if you believe that the AFL is clean and concerned more about fair football than $$$.
Does the AFL want two interstate preliminary finals? I don't think so.
Does the AFL want sellouts and rivalries to dominate the finals? I think so.
Given the current shape of the ladder, what would be the ideal outcome for the AFL this weekend?
Whatever leads (or is likely to lead) to:
i) 1 Vic prelim
ii) Brisbane success (nobody bandwagons like QLDers, trust me, I've lived there)
iii) Rivalries
Here is an example of a ladder which would suit all of this:
Brisbane
Geelong
Coll/Rich
West coast
Coll/Rich
GWS
Dogs
Essendon
Leading to:
Brisbane v West Coast (a sellout at the Gabba)
Geel v Coll/Rich (a sellout at the 'G and a guaranteed Vic prelim)
Coll/Rich vs Essendon (a sellout at the 'G)
GWS Dogs (a rekindling of the closest thing these teams have to a rivalry)
So I thought through it and it seems like there are a few ways for this to happen.
They all revolve around
Essendon losing, which means Collinwood winning.
Brisbane winning, which means Richmond losing.
Bulldogs winning
If these things happen, it doesn't really matter what occurs in the Geel/Carl and Eagles/Hawks games, the ideal matchups will still occur...
...unless Carlton beat Geelong and then the AFL will need Hawthorn to roll West Coast or else we likely end up with two interstate prelims.
So here is my plan:
1) Multi Collingwood into Brisbane into Bulldogs @ $5
2) If Carlton somehow beat Geelong, then load up on Hawthorn. And I mean LOAD UP.
3) If Essendon somehow beat Collingwood, throw my plans out the door and shut up shop until 2020.
Given how incompetent the AFL is given they can't even get the MRP or the throw up rules right, I doubt they would have the ability to engineer Gold Coast losing let alone the above results.I'm one of those crazy people who believe the AFL sometimes engineers results to help improve its bottom line.
Feel free to ignore the rest of this post if you believe that the AFL is clean and concerned more about fair football than $$$.
Does the AFL want two interstate preliminary finals? I don't think so.
Does the AFL want sellouts and rivalries to dominate the finals? I think so.
Given the current shape of the ladder, what would be the ideal outcome for the AFL this weekend?
Whatever leads (or is likely to lead) to:
i) 1 Vic prelim
ii) Brisbane success (nobody bandwagons like QLDers, trust me, I've lived there)
iii) Rivalries
Here is an example of a ladder which would suit all of this:
Brisbane
Geelong
Coll/Rich
West coast
Coll/Rich
GWS
Dogs
Essendon
Leading to:
Brisbane v West Coast (a sellout at the Gabba)
Geel v Coll/Rich (a sellout at the 'G and a guaranteed Vic prelim)
Coll/Rich vs Essendon (a sellout at the 'G)
GWS Dogs (a rekindling of the closest thing these teams have to a rivalry)
So I thought through it and it seems like there are a few ways for this to happen.
They all revolve around
Essendon losing, which means Collinwood winning.
Brisbane winning, which means Richmond losing.
Bulldogs winning
If these things happen, it doesn't really matter what occurs in the Geel/Carl and Eagles/Hawks games, the ideal matchups will still occur...
...unless Carlton beat Geelong and then the AFL will need Hawthorn to roll West Coast or else we likely end up with two interstate prelims.
So here is my plan:
1) Multi Collingwood into Brisbane into Bulldogs @ $5
2) If Carlton somehow beat Geelong, then load up on Hawthorn. And I mean LOAD UP.
3) If Essendon somehow beat Collingwood, throw my plans out the door and shut up shop until 2020.
Syd vs Saints is a dead rubber so i'll go the overs and hope for a pressure free shoot out. I want to bet Syd, but don't like weak teams coming off a win at this time of the season (potential to put the cue in the rack). Saints have gotten a win then a close loss so realistically that might be them done for the year as well.
This is an excellent point. They would still get all four desirable matches, plus one guaranteed vic prelim.not sure how to feel about this. if all the favourites win this week, the AFL would get exactly the same result. Geelong would play Richmond (1 v 4 instead of 2 v 3) and West Coast would play Brisbane. The elim finals wouldn't change either....
I have thought more about this, and there is a problem.if all the favourites win this week, the AFL would get exactly the same result. Geelong would play Richmond (1 v 4 instead of 2 v 3) and West Coast would play Brisbane. The elim finals wouldn't change either....
You also have to take into account WC. They are 3.2% ahead of Rich and expected to beat Hawks by 30 odd points.I have thought more about this, and there is a problem.
If Richmond beat Brisbane by more than a certain amount, they will leapfrog them on the ladder.
Brisbane For 1949 Against 1612 % 120.9
Richmond For 1810 Against 1609 % 112.5
Quick back of an envelope style calculations lead me to believe the required margin is around 50 points.
In theory if Richmond are serious about winning the flag -- and why wouldn't they be -- then they'll be gunning for Top 2.
Brisbane lost by big margins twice at the start of the year, but Richmond haven't spanked any good teams by that much in 2019.
Assuming that your maths is solid (I'm too lazy to check) then this is an excellent analysis, thank you.ok so I've conducted some analysis that might be useful for this week, given there are a couple top 8 teams playing each other and a few bottom 8 teams playing off. the purpose was to see that the assumption that 'dead-rubbers' are higher scoring than their counterparts holds true, which may be obvious to some, but here's some data to support the thesis. What I've done is taken the average last round total of top 8 teams playing each other and vice-versa and then compared this to their average totals up until the last round.
2018:
2 Top 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 158
2 Top 8 teams average SEASON total: 167.6
2017:
2 Top 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 166.5
2 Top 8 teams average SEASON total: 180.9
For both years the sample size is 4, and im rounding values up or down to the nearest decimal. Now, for what im more interested in is the bottom 8 teams.
2018:
2 Bot 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 212.3
2 Bot 8 teams average SEASON total: 165.4
2017:
2 Bot 8 teams average LAST ROUND total: 193.3
2 Bot 8 teams average SEASON total: 183
In both years we have a sample size of 6 teams here.
What's interesting to note is that this weekend includes 4 top 8 teams playing off and 6 bottom 8 teams playing off. Use this data however you wish. Personally I'm not much of a totals man, but there are some players i will be looking at for goal-scorer markets.
I'm just sharing an opinion on a different approach to betting on games. I have been posting in general terms and have been betting at different times depending on where I see the line moving, but i'd say it's pretty obvious that i'm betting on the game.Forgive me for my ignorance , I have read most of your psychological posts but have not seen any pre match bets ?
Forward looking i'm very keen to oppose GC next week. They'll hopefully be coming off a fiesty, competitive derby and they'll be up against the Hawks coming off a couple of losses, plus i'm expecting this to be the Jarryd Roughead farewell game. Motivation wise I expect both teams to be at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Bet of the round is Hawks to smash GC. Roughead's final game so expect the Hawks come out pumped while at the end of the spectrum GC are surely deflated after having a crack in the 1st half then a complete capitulation. If they get punished like that in an important game like the derby then there is no hope from them here.
GC last 6 games have seen 3 totals over 200, the Bris game near 200 and the Coll game was on target for 200 at one stage until Coll pulled stumps early. The other game vs Carl saw a total of 174 which is 9 points over the current total. I like the over obviously.