chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Books have taken the forecast into account with the line
AFL 2019 - AFL Round 5
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
weather report shows hour by hour breakdown. There will be some rain at 5pm but then there is no more rain for the rest of the night. All the rain will be coming down during the day, and this was the same situation during a couple games last year. The new stadiums drainage is very good.
If you dont believe, then wait till just before bounce down to place a bet.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Essendon -5.5 ($1.91 B365)
csnody
Team Captain
- Jul 10, 2015
- 329
- 314
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Thanks CD16. I have been following the over under and have noticed it has dropped.
I'm going to wait till closer to go the overs.
csnody
Team Captain
- Jul 10, 2015
- 329
- 314
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,221
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- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
R.Gray 2+ @2.65 b365
Guelfi 2+ @9 b365
Ebert AGS @2 lads
added Higgins most AFL fantasy Grp 1 @5 sb
Guelfi 2+ @9 b365
Ebert AGS @2 lads
added Higgins most AFL fantasy Grp 1 @5 sb
Last edited:
- Jun 16, 2018
- 8,782
- 15,764
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Thank you for picking this up. How embarrassment for me
- Dec 2, 2017
- 29,293
- 17,863
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Essendon for me today
Will probably leave the later game,
Will probably leave the later game,
No Williams and McDonald today. Expecting Walla and Orazio to have good games.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Who do you think plays on Daniher?
2u Higgins over 99.5 fantasy $1.88 (BE)
2u Essendon -5.5 $1.90 (Lads)
2.5u Gaff over 108.5 fantasy $1.87 (lads)
1u Sheed under 90.5 fantasy $1.77 (BE)
1u WCE 40+ $3.10 (SB/BE)
1u Lloyd 150+ fantasy $5 (BE)
3u Lloyd over 117.5 fantasy $1.88 (BE)
2u Essendon -5.5 $1.90 (Lads)
2.5u Gaff over 108.5 fantasy $1.87 (lads)
1u Sheed under 90.5 fantasy $1.77 (BE)
1u WCE 40+ $3.10 (SB/BE)
1u Lloyd 150+ fantasy $5 (BE)
3u Lloyd over 117.5 fantasy $1.88 (BE)
andwhenitcomes
Team Captain
- May 2, 2018
- 445
- 556
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
Todd Goldstein over 100.5 Supercoach points @ 1.87 (Neds).
Essendon's conceded over 100.5 to 3/4 rucks this year (only under was Dawson Simpson's R1 85) and Goldstein's gone over in his previous 15/18, and 3/4 this year.
Essendon's conceded over 100.5 to 3/4 rucks this year (only under was Dawson Simpson's R1 85) and Goldstein's gone over in his previous 15/18, and 3/4 this year.
- Sep 24, 2010
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- Phili Eagles + Sixers
Like these bets. It seems every team is playing Richmond the same way by keeping possession and constantly switching. This is where Lloyd thrives and Sydney like to play that way as well. Reckon he will go huge.
- Jun 16, 2018
- 8,782
- 15,764
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Going all out with the game today. Ten units on this match.
Poor bankroll management? Probably.
But if I end up with egg on my face today then I might give the punting a miss for the next few weeks.
I have other things I should be doing anyway.
---
Total points line at 178.5 seems outrageously low to me.
i) Last two matches between these teams have gone 230+.
ii) North's defence is still a shambles. No way we contain AMT and Fantasia. At least one will get off the leash.
iiii) Essendon's bruise-free footy will suit Hall and Polec. Expect inside-50s galore.
iv) This fixture could become 'marquee'. Football is a business. Is either coach dumb enough to lock the game down?
---
Check out the odds for Fantasia 2g ($2.4), 3g ($4), 4g ($10). Juicy AF.
i) Has kicked 10 goals in three matches against North. We are his bunny.
ii) Kicked two goals in both matches coming into this game.
iii) No Marley Williams, Sam Wright playing his first match this season. Fantasia will probably be minded by Pittard (okay) or Atley (iffy) or Macmillan (huge trouble for North).
---
Most disposals: Merrett
i) Has built nicely this year: 16, 28, 26, 35
ii) Good form against North: 2018 = 32; 2017 = 33; 2018 = 36.
iii) Brad Scotts won't tag him, and couldn't even if he wanted to, because we'll be stretched for stoppers as it is.
---
My bets (all SB)
1U total points > 200.5 @ 4
.5U total points > 220.5 @ 11
.4U total points > 230.5 @ 23
.1U total points > 240.5 @ 71
2U Fantasia 2+ goals @ 2.37
1U Fantasia 3+ goals @ 4
.5U Fantasia 4+ goals @ 10
.5U Fantasia most goals @ 10
1U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, Fantasia 3+ goals, total points > 178.5 @ 15.5
.5U Most disp (Merrett) / most goals (Fantasia) @ $36 (was @41 a moment before I put bet on)
.5U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, AMT 3+ goals, total points > 220.5 @ 61.5
2U straight up on North @ 2.20 (genuine 50/50 game and North have big first quarters, SB 12+ promo looks good)
Poor bankroll management? Probably.
But if I end up with egg on my face today then I might give the punting a miss for the next few weeks.
I have other things I should be doing anyway.
---
Total points line at 178.5 seems outrageously low to me.
i) Last two matches between these teams have gone 230+.
ii) North's defence is still a shambles. No way we contain AMT and Fantasia. At least one will get off the leash.
iiii) Essendon's bruise-free footy will suit Hall and Polec. Expect inside-50s galore.
iv) This fixture could become 'marquee'. Football is a business. Is either coach dumb enough to lock the game down?
---
Check out the odds for Fantasia 2g ($2.4), 3g ($4), 4g ($10). Juicy AF.
i) Has kicked 10 goals in three matches against North. We are his bunny.
ii) Kicked two goals in both matches coming into this game.
iii) No Marley Williams, Sam Wright playing his first match this season. Fantasia will probably be minded by Pittard (okay) or Atley (iffy) or Macmillan (huge trouble for North).
---
Most disposals: Merrett
i) Has built nicely this year: 16, 28, 26, 35
ii) Good form against North: 2018 = 32; 2017 = 33; 2018 = 36.
iii) Brad Scotts won't tag him, and couldn't even if he wanted to, because we'll be stretched for stoppers as it is.
---
My bets (all SB)
1U total points > 200.5 @ 4
.5U total points > 220.5 @ 11
.4U total points > 230.5 @ 23
.1U total points > 240.5 @ 71
2U Fantasia 2+ goals @ 2.37
1U Fantasia 3+ goals @ 4
.5U Fantasia 4+ goals @ 10
.5U Fantasia most goals @ 10
1U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, Fantasia 3+ goals, total points > 178.5 @ 15.5
.5U Most disp (Merrett) / most goals (Fantasia) @ $36 (was @41 a moment before I put bet on)
.5U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, AMT 3+ goals, total points > 220.5 @ 61.5
2U straight up on North @ 2.20 (genuine 50/50 game and North have big first quarters, SB 12+ promo looks good)
csnody
Team Captain
- Jul 10, 2015
- 329
- 314
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
BOM Radar still only showing about 1mm rained in Perth. Can anyone there confirm? Doesn't look like much more coming?
Reckon North will need to start well to win this. Scheduling favouring Ess with an 8 day break vs consecutive 6 breaks for NM.
Ess with good momentum and I expect NM to follow through on their breakout game after a horror start.
I'd be more confident on Ess but for the loss of Smith and Zaha.
Should be a good game.
Ess with good momentum and I expect NM to follow through on their breakout game after a horror start.
I'd be more confident on Ess but for the loss of Smith and Zaha.
Should be a good game.
Nah mate, the bookies think people are idiots. They expect to see people see it's raining outside and think total will go under so reduce total and scare people into betting. They know the real total and you will see this come bounce down.
So
Some good calls here. by coincidence put on the same multi with Fantasia 3 goals, Merrett 30+ and the overs. Poor kicking hurting you're overs bets but kicking is improving and game is very open.
andwhenitcomes
Team Captain
- May 2, 2018
- 445
- 556
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
Great work with Fantasia so far.
0.8u Cripps 2g+ @3.60 b365
0.2u Cripps 3g+ @11 b365
1.5u Ebert ATGS @2 lads
0.5u Ebert 2g+ @6 b365
0.2u Ebert 3g+ @23 b365
0.2u Cripps 3g+ @11 b365
1.5u Ebert ATGS @2 lads
0.5u Ebert 2g+ @6 b365
0.2u Ebert 3g+ @23 b365
happy punter
Club Legend
- Mar 29, 2009
- 2,431
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Power +23.5 over Eagles @ 1.90 (2 units)
I'm liking WC tonight. Best team in the comp at the moment so should be able to account for a team that probably won't make the 8. Should be able to cover.
I'll wait for game time though as it's raining now in Perth and that won't help Eagles forwards if it hangs around.
Port might be flat as well after they're very average performance against Rich.
I'll wait for game time though as it's raining now in Perth and that won't help Eagles forwards if it hangs around.
Port might be flat as well after they're very average performance against Rich.
csnody
Team Captain
- Jul 10, 2015
- 329
- 314
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Radar looks like rain clearing. 1.2mm before that shower came through. Ground shouldn't have much moisture I would think.
