AFL 2019 - AFL Round 5

[balmainforever]

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Brisbane	$2.45	$2.35	$2.35	$2.40	$2.45
Collingwood	$1.55	$1.55	$1.60	$1.55	$1.56
line:	Coll 9.5	Coll 9.5	Coll 9.5	Coll 9.5	Coll 10.5
total score:		171.5	170.5	169.5	171.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
North Melbourne	$2.45	$2.35	$2.40	$2.40	$2.5
Essendon	$1.55	$1.55	$1.58	$1.55	$1.52
line:	Ess 10.5	Ess 9.5	Ess 10.5	Ess 10.5	Ess 11.5
total score:		175.5	176.5	174.5	175.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
West Coast	$1.20	$1.20	$1.22	$1.20	$1.20
Port Adelaide	$4.60	$4.25	$4.30	$4.40	$4.60
line:	WCst 28.5	WCst 28.5	WCst 27.5	WCst 28.5	WCst 29.5
total score:		153.5	155.5	151.5	153.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
G-Western Sydney	$1.14	$1.13	$1.14	$1.13	$1.14
Fremantle	$5.80	$5.40	$5.75	$5.75	$5.75
line:	GWS 34.5	GWS 34.5	GWS 35.5	GWS 34.5	GWS 35.5
total score:		159.5	161.5	159.5	159.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Melbourne	$1.40	$1.38	$1.43	$1.38	$1.36
St. Kilda	$3.00	$2.90	$2.85	$3.00	$3.20
line:	Melb 16.5	Melb 16.5	Melb 16.5	Melb 17.5	Melb 16.5
total score:		167.5	169.5	167.5	168.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Richmond	$1.42	$1.39	$1.43	$1.45	$1.42
Sydney	$2.90	$2.85	$2.85	$2.70	$2.90
line:	Rich 15.5	Rich 15.5	Rich 16.5	Rich 14.5	Rich 16.5
total score:		167.5	170.5	167.5	168.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Western Bulldogs	$1.38	$1.37	$1.40	$1.40	$1.38
Carlton	$3.10	$2.95	$2.95	$2.90	$3.10
line:	WBull 17.5	WBull 17.5	WBull 17.5	WBull 16.5	WBull 18.5
total score:		157.5	159.5	157.5	157.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Adelaide	$1.23	$1.20	$1.20	$1.20	$1.21
Gold Coast	$4.20	$4.25	$4.60	$4.40	$4.50
line:	Adel 28.5	Adel 28.5	Adel 27.5	Adel 28.5	Adel 27.5
total score:		143.5	146.5	144.5	146.5

Game	TAB	Sportsbet	BetEasy	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Hawthorn	$2.85	$3.14	$2.75	$2.90	$2.90
Geelong	$1.43	$1.33	$1.45	$1.40	$1.42
line:	Geel 14.5	Geel 17.5	Geel 15.5	Geel 15.5	Geel 15.5
total score:		164.5	162.5	163.5	163.5

ODDS AT 17.00 ON 15/4/2019

 

[balmainforever]

odds and poll to done later tonight

 

[Robo87]

wheres a betting market for Port to lose to WC after the final siren again?

 

[maskmcgee]

This is an informational post only



So far we've had 21 upsets this season. For comparison, the 21st upset of last season was GWS losing to West Coast in Round 8.

 

[pharmafella]

Sydney look good at $2.78 H2H (SB) considering the game is not the MCG, it's at Marvel where they typically play well, and Richmond's significant outs despite their success this week against Port.

 

[maskmcgee]

I reckon Sydney are absolutely cooked. I wouldn't back them to beat anybody. I think Richmond at the line of 14.5 is a gift.
In fact Sportsbet has them the third longest odds to make the 8, $5.50, only ahead of Gold Coast and Carlton.

 

[adammania9]

St Kilda defeated Melbourne at the MCG last season and historically have the Demons on a leash. Despite their win, I think Melbourne were still very underwhelming and this St Kilda side will have a lot of confidence going into the game. Saints to win at $3 (TAB) is nuts I reckon.

Also very confident on Essendon beating North Melbourne. Will definitely back a -11.5 line.

 

[pharmafella]

I reckon Sydney are absolutely cooked. I wouldn't back them to beat anybody. I think Richmond at the line of 14.5 is a gift.
In fact Sportsbet has them the third longest odds to make the 8, $5.50, only ahead of Gold Coast and Carlton.

It probably means they’ve priced the game well if we both think there’s value for both teams. I guess our perspectives come from us looking at two different data sets, I’m looking at history to say they normally play well there and you’re looking at this year in a more isolated fashion. The odds for them to miss the 8 are pretty damning but I guess I’m betting on them not being as rubbish as they’ve looked so far, and given the venue and their weakened opposition I think they have more of a chance than their odds suggest this week. Good luck!

 

[maskmcgee]

Gold Coast +29.5

Adelaide have only scored over 75 once, I don't see how Adelaide could score enough to cover that line.

 

[Robo87]

Gold Coast +29.5

Adelaide have only scored over 75 once, I don't see how Adelaide could score enough to cover that line.

Agree! Crows averaged approx 110pts per game a couple of years ago but now have had trouble kicking goals every game thus far, their scoring is nothing like it used to be and I cant back crows at a large line until something changes. GC to cover.

 

[iluvparis]

I reckon Sydney are absolutely cooked. I wouldn't back them to beat anybody. I think Richmond at the line of 14.5 is a gift.
In fact Sportsbet has them the third longest odds to make the 8, $5.50, only ahead of Gold Coast and Carlton.

Similar thoughts as I stated last week - they look a legit bottom 4 side to me.

 

[free at last]

Power at +29.5 I'll be having some of that

 

[Dylsbo]

Gold Coast +29.5

Adelaide have only scored over 75 once, I don't see how Adelaide could score enough to cover that line.

Agree! Crows averaged approx 110pts per game a couple of years ago but now have had trouble kicking goals every game thus far, their scoring is nothing like it used to be and I cant back crows at a large line until something changes. GC to cover.

Especially with the BOM forecasting 2-8mm across the morning and afternoon. Some services forecasting as high as 20mm.
I'll be getting on unders and +GC as soon as totals are available.

 

[NonPhixion]

Multi on WC, Giants & Tigers
Boosted to 2.08 with SB. Put it on yesterday so odds have probably shifted a little. I think all 3 are absolute locks. Agree re Sydney. They look like sliding this year, Franklin doesn’t look right to me at all

 

[csnody]

Crows averaging just under 70 points a game. At that line it gives the expected Suns score to be 42.

By my calcs I had the OU at 145.5 but that's without weather.

 

[Vhaluus]

I don't mind brisbane at the line of +9.5

 

[targett]

View attachment 654686

So far we've had 21 upsets this season. For comparison, the 21st upset of last season was GWS losing to West Coast in Round 8.

Are you posting your bets pre match

 

[csnody]

Crows averaging just under 70 points a game. At that line it gives the expected Suns score to be 42.

By my calcs I had the OU at 145.5 but that's without weather.

SB have line at 143.5. That seems about right to me. Hoping for weather.

 

[Sketi]

Similar thoughts as I stated last week - they look a legit bottom 4 side to me.

Yup. If I was rich I'd put a stupid amount of money on Richmond at 1.45, absolute gift.

 

[targett]

No team in the competition is currently averaging 100 points per game for the season (BRIS with 95.3 is currently the highest) First time since 1968 R20 that no team in the comp has averaged 100 points per game

 

[maskmcgee]

Are you posting your bets pre match

Most of my bets I discuss on my discord.

 

[targett]

Most of my bets I discuss on my discord.

I dont see any point posting profits and tips after the fact if of course all Tips are posted here pre match

 

[iluvparis]

I dont see any point posting profits and tips after the fact if of course all Tips are posted here pre match

??? He is just listing how many outsiders won each week and what the P&L would be if you did so - don't see any issues with it

 

[balmainforever]

maskmcgee is posting an informational service.

That’s how I’m ruling it.
That’s the last that will be said on it.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Forget GC at the line, I'll be going with GC for the win.

Adelaide are horrendous. If I didn't know better I would think the players have already checked out of 2019.

Melbourne seem too short against St Kilda as well.