AFL 2019 - AFL Round 5

[demon_fanatic]

Thank God for pettrucelle! Legend

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Only because I had a good day with the North match, and I am dumb enough to listen to advice from people on this forum*:

*No offense guys, I love you all.

1U Multi: West Coast -23.5; Ebert AGS @ $4
.2U Mult: West Coast 40+; Ebert 3+ goals @$141

.5U Ebert 2+ goals @5
.5 U Ebert 3+ goals @15
.5U Ebert FGS @ 21

All SB

-.2U for the match.

Ebert had a shot on goal with a few minutes to go.

The probability predictor thing had him 1-1 in his history from that spot.

In these conditions at that stage of the game, tougher than normal, but still.

One of those days.

Take the wins, I guess.

 

[0utsider]

1u multi - Rockliff under32.5 and Total Score 147.5+ @3.60

Rocky gets 32 and kick on the siren takes total score to 148.
I'll take that.

 

[Robo87]

Nooo ebert! Look if youre going to ruin west coasts night at least be nice and kick straight for 3 goals for us punters.. So close but oh well.

0.8u Cripps 2g+ @3.60 b365
0.2u Cripps 3g+ @11 b365
1.5u Ebert ATGS @2 lads
0.5u Ebert 2g+ @6 b365
0.2u Ebert 3g+ @23 b365

 

[csnody]

Nice one. I'm 4/5 this week so far. I'll take that goal before the siren to take Total Points over 146.5.... geez that was close.

 

[csnody]

GWS worst quarter is their first. GWS to cover the line in all but the first Q.
They win 2nd, 3rd and 4th Qrt by 5.25, 6.25 and 4.5 points respectively, so far this year.

 

[csnody]

GWS worst quarter is their first. GWS to cover the line in all but the first Q.
They win 2nd, 3rd and 4th Qrt by 5.25, 6.25 and 4.5 points respectively, so far this year.

I forgot to say, you have to also take into account who each team has played. GWS obviously played the harder teams where as Freo has played arguably 3/4 bottom teams already.

 

[benji21]

GWS/Freo match, at Manuka. Liking GWS over 96.5 with Sportsbet and the over 160.5. Most games recently have been high scoring there with this match being the exception last year but it was a very windy day. Forecast light winds and mostly sunny

 

[Hellboy101]

SGM: Kelly 30+, Over 160, Gws -34.5 @7

Kelly 30+. @2.63

Kelly most disposals @8.5

 

[Jimmy69r]

Every year someone reckons they can predict the weather

I just read the weather report, exactly same as you mate. You even wrote on here there should be no rain later on

 

[RooTed]

Very disappointing Good Friday. Both went under by a point or 2. Probably could have got a better TGS closer to the game start at Perth and won...

R5 now 1-4 -2.12u

R5 Saturday
1u Freo +34.5 $1.91 BE
1u Dees-Saints TGS o168.5 $1.89 B365
1u Tigers-Swans TGS o168.5 $1.89 B365

GL

On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Going all out with the game today. Ten units on this match.

Poor bankroll management? Probably.

But if I end up with egg on my face today then I might give the punting a miss for the next few weeks.

I have other things I should be doing anyway.

---

Total points line at 178.5 seems outrageously low to me.

i) Last two matches between these teams have gone 230+.

ii) North's defence is still a shambles. No way we contain AMT and Fantasia. At least one will get off the leash.

iiii) Essendon's bruise-free footy will suit Hall and Polec. Expect inside-50s galore.

iv) This fixture could become 'marquee'. Football is a business. Is either coach dumb enough to lock the game down?

---

Check out the odds for Fantasia 2g ($2.4), 3g ($4), 4g ($10). Juicy AF.

i) Has kicked 10 goals in three matches against North. We are his bunny.

ii) Kicked two goals in both matches coming into this game.

iii) No Marley Williams, Sam Wright playing his first match this season. Fantasia will probably be minded by Pittard (okay) or Atley (iffy) or Macmillan (huge trouble for North).

---

Most disposals: Merrett

i) Has built nicely this year: 16, 28, 26, 35

ii) Good form against North: 2018 = 32; 2017 = 33; 2018 = 36.

iii) Brad Scotts won't tag him, and couldn't even if he wanted to, because we'll be stretched for stoppers as it is.

---

My bets (all SB)

1U total points > 200.5 @ 4
.5U total points > 220.5 @ 11
.4U total points > 230.5 @ 23
.1U total points > 240.5 @ 71

2U Fantasia 2+ goals @ 2.37
1U Fantasia 3+ goals @ 4
.5U Fantasia 4+ goals @ 10
.5U Fantasia most goals @ 10

1U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, Fantasia 3+ goals, total points > 178.5 @ 15.5
.5U Most disp (Merrett) / most goals (Fantasia) @ $36 (was @41 a moment before I put bet on)
.5U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, AMT 3+ goals, total points > 220.5 @ 61.5

2U straight up on North @ 2.20 (genuine 50/50 game and North have big first quarters, SB 12+ promo looks good)

Total points

Missed a $90 SGM too.

 

[squeaky1000]

Decent fantasy middle on offer atm, Taranto over 100.5 sportsbet under 108.5 bet easy

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Same Game Multi
1u - Freo/GWS under 162.5 in to GWS 1-39 @ $3.53

 

[Ohh Ok]

3u Fyfe Under 28.5 disposals $1.75 (lads)

 

[JuniorWatch]

3u Fyfe Under 28.5 disposals $1.75 (lads)

Coming back from concussion into a hard tag. Poor Fyfey

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

GWS 40+, 60+, 100+ today

 

[Keystone agony]

0.5U Ross U106.5 SB
1U Oliver over Ross 1.8 Lads
0.5U Billings U98.5 SB
0.5U Webster U72.5 BE
0.5U J.Steven U96.5
0.5U Viney over Harmes 2.15
0.5U J.Lewis U78.5

0.5U Fyfe U29.5 disp 1.87
0.5U Himmelberg more goals than McCarthy 1.90 VOID
0.5U Hopper over Walters
0.3U Buntine @3.75 AGS lads
0.5U Langdon U89.5 @2

Need a strong performance by melbourne today with so many saints unders. Lewis and Steven with limited game may struggle scoring

 

[Keystone agony]

Going hard in eagles vs Port game

4U Ebert U93.5 lads 1.88
1U Darling 1.62 more goals than Westhoff TAB
2U Rocky U34.5 disp 1.96 PB
2U Boak U31.5 disp 1.92 PB
1U Ebert U 22.5 disp 1.87 SB
1U Burton U22.5 disp 1.87 SB
2U Rozee U66 5 @1.88 PB

Actually had 2U on Boak and Rocky than what i posted.

5/7

2 Points away from being a huge win. Ebert was on 59 points at 3 qtr time and thought i was home

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Liking St Kilda today.

Beat Melbourne last time they played, in a game where Hogan kicked three goals and Fritsch kicked four.

Hogan is gone now and Fritsch has kicked one goal for the season.

St Kilda were pretty ordinary against Hawthorn but the got the four points, and now welcome Geary and Steven back into the side.

Those two players boost their teams total games played by about 20%, believe it or not. Last week's Saints team was inexperienced AF 'on paper'.

Who have Melbourne beaten this year? A woeful Sydney outfit destined for bottom-four. And even that was a struggle.

Look through Melbourne's results last year and they had a few troubles at the MCG.

Expecting St. Kilda to expose them bigtime on the wide expanses of the 'G. Especially on a warm and sunny day.

Steele to tag Oliver, Brayshaw can't do it all by himself, Ross/Billings/Acres to run riot.

Gresham averages three goals per game at the 'G. Ross to continue his form from last week.

2U St Kilda SU @ 2.80
1U St Kilda -11.5 @ 4
.5U St Kilda -32.5 @ 10
.2U St Kilda -59.5 @ 51

.2U Gresham most goals @ 15
.3U Gresham 4+ goals @ 17
.2U Gresham 5+ goals @ 76

.3U Ross most disposals / Gresham most goals @ 61
.3U Multi Brayshaw 30+ disposals / Melksham 2+ goals / St Kilda 25+ @ 78

Total placed: 5 units. All SB

 

[Ohh Ok]

0.5U Ross U106.5 SB
1U Oliver over Ross 1.8 Lads
0.5U Billings U98.5 SB
0.5U Webster U72.5 BE
0.5U J.Steven U96.5
0.5U Viney over Harmes 2.15
0.5U J.Lewis U78.5

1U Fyfe U29.5 disp 1.87
0.5u Himmelberg more goals than McCarthy 1.90
1U Hopper over Walters
0.3U Buntine 3.75 AGS lads

Need a strong performance by melbourne today with so many saints unders. Lewis and Steven with limited game may struggle scoring

Where are you finding 29.5 for Fyfe? Highest I could find was 29 on 365 at $1.65

 

[Robo87]

Dusty named in fwd pocket for Rich? anyone think he's worth a shot? hasnt kicked a goal this year but.. its dusty.
2g+ is @3 b365
3g+ is @8.50 b365

 

[andwhenitcomes]

David Mundy under 25.5 disposals @ 1.81 (Sportsbet).

Line would be right if he played full time mid but he won't with Fyfe back.

 

[Spacedog]

Dusty named in fwd pocket for Rich? anyone think he's worth a shot? hasnt kicked a goal this year but.. its dusty.
2g+ is @3 b365
3g+ is @8.50 b365

I wouldn't read too much into where he is on the team sheet, we list everyone randomly. I like it though because he'll get tagged in the middle so should spend a fair bit of time forward

 

[Keystone agony]

Ill probably get on either of Cogs or taranto as FGS depending on where they lineup if i can