AFL 2019 - AFL Round 5

Who Covers the Line This Week?

  • Total voters
    36
  • Poll closed .

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3u T.Kelly over 24.5 disposals $1.98 (PB)
1u T.Kelly 30+ disposals $5 (SB)
0.5u T.Kelly 35+ disposals $17 (SB)
2.5u T.Kelly over 95.5 fantasy $1.88 (PB)

Cleared the line and reach 30 twice this season, other games him missed most of last quarter and was tagged. Was actually quite shocked to see 30+ going at $5, I think if it weren’t for copping a tag last week the line would be lower. Should run free tomorrow with Hawthorn allowing at least 2 opposing mids to go 30+ and 1 35+ each game. Value on 40+ @ $101
 

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2.5u Macrae over 119.5 fantasy $1.87 (lads)
0.5u Macrae most points $3
0.5u Macrae 150+ $4.5

2.5u Fiorini 25+, Betts AGS $1.93
2.5u Brouch 25+, Sexton AGS $1.82
1.5u Brouch AGS $1.87
 
1.5u WB/CARL and ADE/GC both games either side win under 39.5 $2.62 (TopSport)

Next best odds at another bookie for this is $2.29 at TAB so a fair bit of extra value on TopSport
 
Taking the under on both games today. Sunday. 1u on each. Dogs-Blues u159.5 and Crows-Suns u158.5. Not going great this week which is probably due to taking too many that I shouldn't have touched. Expect both of these to be about 20 points under. None of these teams hitting big scores atm.

GL

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jo
RooTed said:
Taking the under on both games today. Sunday. 1u on each. Dogs-Blues u159.5 and Crows-Suns u158.5. Not going great this week which is probably due to taking too many that I shouldn't have touched. Expect both of these to be about 20 points under. None of these teams hitting big scores atm.

GL

On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
Shop around can be the difference between a win loss, 161.5 crown for crow gc unders
 

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Ellis-Yolmen AGS @2.75 lads
Rotating forward-mid, should get a couple chances
 
Adelaide looked truly atrocious against North last week. Watched them closely, could not believe what I was seeing.

We saw on Friday that north aren't exactly premiership contenders, either.

If I found out that the Crows players had ECO'd on the coach (and even club) I would not be the least bit surprised.

The 2017 Grand Final was a long time ago. This list has already peaked and is on the way down.

Loading up Gold Coast today. Only lost one match this year and that was by one point to the top-of-the-table Saints.

People might say, 'the teams they beat were all ordinary'. Let me repeat this: Adelaide are atrocious.

And the GC have some handy intel on Adelaide, picking up two assistants (Francou and Kaesler) over the off-season.

2U GC SU @ 4.65
.5U GC -5.5 @ 7.5
.5U GC -11.5 @ 10
.5U GC -17.5 @ 14
.5U GC -29.5 @ 31
.5U GC -35.5 @ 51
.5U GC -45.5 @ 101

Swallow has goaled in three of past four matches, Laird always destroys GC, Lynch always destroys GC, Sexton in hot form.

.5U Multi: GC SU, Lynch 2+ goals, Betts 2+ goals, Sexton 2+ goals @ 89.5
.5U Multi: GC SU, Lynch/Betts/Sexton/Swallow all AGS @ 21
.3U Multi: Laird 30+ disposals, Swallow AGS, Sexton 3+ goals, GC 25+ @ 201
.3U Multi: Laird 30+ disposals, Sexton 2+ goals, GC SU @ 24.50
.3U Multi: Laird 30+ disposals, Sexton 3+ goals, Lynch 3+ goals @ 53.5
.1U Multi: Swallow 2+ goals, Lynch 2+ goals, Martin 2+ goals @ 101

Total bet: 7U all with SB.

Up 27 units for the weekend and if today is a bust I will not bet on tomorrow's game.

Minimum 20U profit for the weekend, I'll take it.

I would bet MORE on the GC because Adelaide are hopeless but 7U is as far as I am willing go on this match.
 
GC have had 4 close games and a miracle win last week. Ade been pumped in the media and under the spotlight. Under normal circumstances i'd expect GC to be as flat as a pancake and Ade pumped up for a big win. GC also might have an eye on the derby next week.

Given this season with GC 3 and 1 vs Ade 1 and 3 a line of -32.5 seems like madness.

Underdogs are something like 20 and 0 with a line above -15.5 so can't bet at such a big line.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Adelaide looked truly atrocious against North last week. Watched them closely, could not believe what I was seeing.

We saw on Friday that north aren't exactly premiership contenders, either.

If I found out that the Crows players had ECO'd on the coach (and even club) I would not be the least bit surprised.

The 2017 Grand Final was a long time ago. This list has already peaked and is on the way down.

Loading up Gold Coast today. Only lost one match this year and that was by one point to the top-of-the-table Saints.

People might say, 'the teams they beat were all ordinary'. Let me repeat this: Adelaide are atrocious.

And the GC have some handy intel on Adelaide, picking up two assistants (Francou and Kaesler) over the off-season.

2U GC SU @ 4.65
.5U GC -5.5 @ 7.5
.5U GC -11.5 @ 10
.5U GC -17.5 @ 14
.5U GC -29.5 @ 31
.5U GC -35.5 @ 51
.5U GC -45.5 @ 101

Swallow has goaled in three of past four matches, Laird always destroys GC, Lynch always destroys GC, Sexton in hot form.

.5U Multi: GC SU, Lynch 2+ goals, Betts 2+ goals, Sexton 2+ goals @ 89.5
.5U Multi: GC SU, Lynch/Betts/Sexton/Swallow all AGS @ 21
.3U Multi: Laird 30+ disposals, Swallow AGS, Sexton 3+ goals, GC 25+ @ 201
.3U Multi: Laird 30+ disposals, Sexton 2+ goals, GC SU @ 24.50
.3U Multi: Laird 30+ disposals, Sexton 3+ goals, Lynch 3+ goals @ 53.5
.1U Multi: Swallow 2+ goals, Lynch 2+ goals, Martin 2+ goals @ 101

Total bet: 7U all with SB.

Up 27 units for the weekend and if today is a bust I will not bet on tomorrow's game.

Minimum 20U profit for the weekend, I'll take it.

I would bet MORE on the GC because Adelaide are hopeless but 7U is as far as I am willing go on this match.
Click to expand...
Are they atrocious or having some bad games ala Ess who have had 2 shockers? Got some big names on paper. Today will be telling - after 5 rounds you have to look at teams like Melb, NM and Syd and say there are structural issues and they're just not going to be any good.

I'm going to watch on to see how it plays out.
 
mookieb said:
Are they atrocious or having some bad games ala Ess who have had 2 shockers?
Click to expand...
Bombers were spanked by the Ferraris in Round 1 and narrowly lost to St Kilda the next week. Three wins since then.

Adelaide are 1-3, their only win was against a Sydney team destined for the bottom four (about time), and last week lost to North.

And they didn't just lose to North. They got destroyed in the second half. Poor kicking from North is all that kept them in it.

I'm going to watch on to see how it plays out.
Click to expand...
Same here. I could be wrong. This is why I have to limit myself to so many units per match. Sometimes I'm way off.

But it has been a good weekend so far and I'm confident that Adelaide's supporters will have their pitchforks ready by 3/4 time.

Possibly sooner.
 
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