AFL 2019 - AFL Round 5

[Ohh Ok]

Haven’t had the greatest weekend but I think today’s match presents some nice value. Hopefully can swing a few things back in my favour. Maybe some more bets to come later on.

3u Stewart over 24.5 disposals $1.87 (365)
2u Dangerfield over 118.5 fantasy $1.87 (lads)

0.25u Sportsbet SGM $65
-Duncan 20+
-Worpel, Stewart 25+
-Dangerfield, Kelly 30+
-Ablett 2+ goals

 

[targett]

Interesting table. What does the column Rd. 2017 stand for?

Its called the 'Kiss Of Death' The Herald Sun have been doing it for ever as part of their Super Tipping.Usually comes dead last by a country mile come seasons end.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Duncan over 23.5 disposals $1.80 (SB)
1u Dangerfield -0.5/over 56.5 (vs O’Meara) $3.5 (lads)
1u Kelly +0.5/over 49.5 (vs Worpel) $3.50 (lads)

 

[RooTed]

R5 Easter Monday

1u Hawks-Cats TGS o163.5
Line (Cats 10.5) looks about right so not touching it. Think Cats get it so probably 1 -39 would be best bet.

GL

 

[Robo87]

1u parfitt atgs @2.15 lads
0.5u parfitt 2g+ @7.5 SB
0.1u parfitt 3g+ @23 sb
1u puopolo atgs @1.70 lads
0.5u puopolo 2g+ @5 b365
0.3u puopolo 3g+ @19 b365

 

[SterlingArcher]

Menegola 30+ @ $21 SB

8 out of 57 career games he has gone 30+. 2 of those were in his 5 career games v Hawthorn.

Unlikely but 2/5 and 8/57 makes me like $21 odds. Especially if it keeps up all year.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Parfitt AGS @ $2.15
McEvoy AGS @ $2.15
McEvoy FGS @ $34 (odds boost on Lads)

 

[chrisdon16]

Geelong -10.5 ($1.91 Beteasy)

 

[Vhaluus]

Menegola 30+ @ $21 SB

8 out of 57 career games he has gone 30+. 2 of those were in his 5 career games v Hawthorn.

Unlikely but 2/5 and 8/57 makes me like $21 odds. Especially if it keeps up all year.

quiet start to the year but I like the maths, I'll follow that bet with a bit of a hedge on 25+ too

 

[NonPhixion]

SGM...
Cats 1-39, parfitt AGS, Ratugolea 2+
@14.5 Sb

 

[maskmcgee]

Breust, Hawkins, Rohan, Wingard, Gunston AGS $2.60

 

[maskmcgee]

Either team by 15 or less $2.63 has got up 17 of the last 26 Hawthorn v. Geelong games.

 

[mookieb]

Danger, Kelly and Selwood. Surely the cats mid have a field day over O'Meara and a young Worpel tomorrow.

Expect Geel wins this game. Line seems a little low considering Geel are 2nd premiership favs.

Think Geel wins the midfield battle but Hawks aren't as weak as you think. JOM is a gun, Scully playing well, Henderson has been really good this year, McEvoy very good, Smith is good. Worpel and Cousins the youngsters and potentially Wingard a run through the middle. Lack depth and a real solid contested ball getter though.

Howe's in so I expect he'll probably tag someone.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Stratton and Frawley out.
Brand vs. Hawkins spells trouble for the Hawks with no Stratton coming over the top.
Hawkins to kick 4+, Geelong win. $5.25 SB

 

[bettingonbetts]

Haven’t had the greatest weekend but I think today’s match presents some nice value. Hopefully can swing a few things back in my favour. Maybe some more bets to come later on.

3u Stewart over 24.5 disposals $1.87 (365)
2u Dangerfield over 118.5 fantasy $1.87 (lads)

0.25u Sportsbet SGM $65
-Duncan 20+
-Worpel, Stewart 25+
-Dangerfield, Kelly 30+
-Ablett 2+ goals

Tailing this SGM already was on board for Ablett 2 goals, hoping Kelly has a big one today!

 

[PP34]

Tempted to have a go at Ablett to get 30 @13 on SB.

Hasn’t had less than 32 against the Hawks since 2007. Obviously isn’t playing midfield anymore but stranger things have happened....

 

[FadingTheFave]

I think Dangerfield to get 40+ disposals @17 (TAB) worth a crack.

Mids against Hawks this year: M. Crouch 40, Sloane 36, Macrae 36, Hunter 33, Higgins 36, Cunnington 33, Ross 39, Billings 34

 

[Hellboy101]

Myers & Abletts AGS. Cats -5.5@HT, Duncan over 23.5, Kelly over 26.5 @ 11

Cats to win well today.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Hawkins 3+ goals $2.35 (365)
2u Geelong -12.5 $2 (topsport)

 

[Keystone agony]

Need a bit of a rebound today

1U Henderson U94.5 @1.87 SB
1U Stewart U96.5 @1.93 BE
1U Roughead U74.5 @1.88 PB
1U Scully U86.5 @1.87 BE
1U Mcevoy U94.5 @1.88 BE
1U Dangerfield U120.5 1.87 SB

 

[Hellboy101]

Disposals group D: Kelly@5 - JoM, Stewart, Duncan, Sicily.
Disposals group A: Danger@2.3: JOM, Worpel, Stewart, Henderson.

Pointsbet. 2u each

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I think Dangerfield to get 40+ disposals @17 (TAB) worth a crack.

Mids against Hawks this year: M. Crouch 40, Sloane 36, Macrae 36, Hunter 33, Higgins 36, Cunnington 33, Ross 39, Billings 34

Hasn't gotten 40+ since 2017.

 

[scottyt2]

Gunston 20+ disposals $3.60 SB. Think he'll be in defence today looking at the changes.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Can see Crazy Chris Scotts pulling a swifty here. Taylor has scored a goal in both rounds 3 and 4.

Hawthorn forwardline looks pretty small. No need for Harry to be there?

Why not expose Hawthorn's already-weakened defence (missing Frawley and Stratton)?

1U Harry Taylor AGS @ 2.30
.5U Harry Taylor 2g+ @ 9.50
.3U Harry Taylor 3g+ @ 41
.2U Harry Taylor 4g+ @ 101

0.4U Multi Taylor AGS, Gunston 20+ disposals, total match points >163.5 @ 16

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Gunston 20+ disposals $3.60 SB. Think he'll be in defence today looking at the changes.

Definitely is, just got on 20+ @ 3.60, 25+ @ 15.00 and 30+ @ 101.