AFL 2019 - AFL Round 6

[chrisdon16]

Do u think the Dons r a chance or just Pies in a tight one i.e. 6pts?

On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app

Definitely a chance.

 

[chrisdon16]

RICH/MEL - o169.5 ($1.90 Pointsbet)

 

[Sausage Legs]

Doesn't like to travel it seems, good find

yeah I'm following, 25 at 7s and 30 at 56, hopefully show the old team wot for

 

[Ohh Ok]

3u Oliver over 106.5 fantasy $1.87
3.5u Brayshaw over 103.5 fantasy $1.87

Both with lads.
Richmond conceding the most fantasy points per game this season and even if you take away the game where they got monstered by Collingwood they still rank last for points against. These two aren’t in their best form but this is definitely a good spot for them to clear their lines. Both have cleared their lines 3/5 times this season.

 

[CarterS]

All about the Bombers this week, their price has already come in 40 points though. Can't find much else in terms of angles yet.

DAE take the $2 lines with TopSport or ClassicBet and back themselves to win more than 50% of the time? That's pretty much been my betting exclusively this year, only issue is you can't take juicy lines at the start of the week (they are account burners anyway). Am up for the year though (8 wins 5 losses).

 

[JuniorWatch]

Liam Baker AGS. $2.30 Lads.
Kicked 1.1 in both games this year.
Will play majority fwd vs Melbourne.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Liam Baker AGS. $2.30 Lads.
Kicked 1.1 in both games this year.
Will play majority fwd vs Melbourne.

1.43 on beteasy so great find there

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Robo87]

alright im tailing baker too to make it interesting.
1u Higgins ags @1.80 lads
0.5u Higgins 2g+@4.75 b365
0.3u Higgins 2g+@17 b365
1u Baker AGS $2 lads (its moved into $2 already)
0.8u Baker 2g+ @6 SB
0.3u Baker 3g+ @17 b365/SB
0.1u Baker 4g+ @81 sb

 

[Keystone agony]

Whos actually going to play on these forwards? I expect a late change tomorrow

Tom Lynch - Sam Frost
Riewoldt - Hibberd?
Balta - M.Hore?

or does Tim Smith go back

I expect Balta or Riewoldt to be a late out and Shai Bolton to play especially with a bit of rain tomorrow morning

 

[Keystone agony]

0.2U Baker 2 Goals @6 - SB
0.2U Higgins Most Disposals vs Houli, Lambert, Vlastuin, N.Jones, Viney, Lewis, Petracca @13 - Lads
0.2U Higgins Most Disposals vs Houli, Lambert, Ross, N.Jones, Fritsch, Petracca, Hibberd - SB
$50 Tigers at 2.50 - Lads
0.2U Harmes Most Tackles vs Castagna, Oliver, Mcintosh, Ross, Prestia, Salem, Melksham

More bets to come relating to Fantasy

With wet dewy conditions expecting a few ball ups, might even get the hard tag on Dusty which will help tackle count since going midfield last 14 games avg 6 tackles per game. The highest this year of the lot outside of him is Castagna 4.5.

Higgins offers great value. He had the most disposals last week of this lot and seems to be getting more midfield time whilst Lambert goes forward more.

Baker great value will be a hard game to get goals and he did get up the ground a bit. Also dont mind Lambert at 5.50 but its a raffle of which of the smalls at 4.75 kick 2 Rioli, Garlett, Castagna ect

Richmond been impressive recently no doubt Port were ahead of themselves but impressed by young tigers to backup after the big upset vs swans. Melbourne loseing many in a row is a concern i feel the relief against sydney let them down a little the following week but they battled vs Sydney and just got across the line

 

[redstarforever_]

Model Says:
Port Norf U173.5 (B365)
GC Lions U173.5 (B365)
Syd GWS U163.5 (B365)
Geel WC O160.5 (SB)

they might even all go over tbh

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Beteasy build a bet-

Neal-Bullen, Lockhart, Garlett & T. Smith 17+ Tackles & 3+ Goals combined @ 1.80



On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[chrisdon16]

ESS/COLL - o173.5 ($1.89 b365)

 

[squeaky1000]

Beteasy build a bet-

Neal-Bullen, Lockhart, Garlett & T. Smith 17+ Tackles & 3+ Goals combined @ 1.80



On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

That's awful odds

 

[targett]

Surprise to see Richmond on the drift.....Would like to know how many teams have made 5+ changes and won . Im holding my -14.5 1.9 and -15.5 1.98 . Will look to cover in play

 

[iluvparis]

Surprise to see Richmond on the drift.....Would like to know how many teams have made 5+ changes and won . Im holding my -14.5 1.9 and -15.5 1.98 . Will look to cover in play

See earlier post re: Melbourne hype

 

[chrisdon16]

Carlton +21.5 ($1.91 b365)

 

[Keystone agony]

0.2U Baker 2 Goals @6 - SB
0.2U Higgins Most Disposals vs Houli, Lambert, Vlastuin, N.Jones, Viney, Lewis, Petracca @13 - Lads
0.2U Higgins Most Disposals vs Houli, Lambert, Ross, N.Jones, Fritsch, Petracca, Hibberd @11 - SB
1U Tigers at 2.50 - Lads
0.8U Melbourne at 2.60 - SB 12 up promo
0.2U Harmes Most Tackles vs Castagna, Oliver, Mcintosh, Ross, Prestia, Salem, Melksham
0.6U Nankervis U85.5 @1.88 PB
1U Salem U94.5 @2.1 SB
1U Ellis U88.5 @1.88 BEasy
1U Harmes over B.Ellis @1.88 Beasy
0.5U Houli over Edwards @1.88 Beasy
1U J.Riewoldt O70.5 PB
0.3U Gawn 35 hitouts and 1 goal @5 Lads
0.2u Hunt 2 goals @5.5
0.2u Hunt AGS @2.15

8 - 7
+3.28 Units


* Nank best fantasy bet of the round just i can only get max $60 on it and ive moved the price too much to try some more

 

[the_big_sav]

Surprise to see Richmond on the drift.....Would like to know how many teams have made 5+ changes and won . Im holding my -14.5 1.9 and -15.5 1.98 . Will look to cover in play

sirswampthing on twitter who does stats said its 44%, melb are 46% when they do it

*dont know how far back hes gone

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u Salem over 25.5 $1.87 (365)

 

[Distinctive_]

ladbrokes $2.5 Tigers H2H Vs Dees offer is good

 

[mookieb]

Teams i think can cause an upset this week and offer good value

Essendon - I rate teams that can win games in a row. Theyve won 3 now and Zacka, D.Smith return plus joe Daniher has gotten his return game out of the way which should help. Pies back from a very good result against Brisbane

Western Buldogs - Freo will be heavily overhyped and the hammer comes swinging for the dogs during the week. I think dogs are every bit the side fremantle are. This might be exactly what they need an away game in the toughest travel after a drumming from the blues.

West Coast - Bloody hard to beat the cats at GHAMBA? Most say that but GWS did it and a few have recently. Geelong off a shoetened break and West Coast are still a quality outfit who might fire themselves up for this game. They wont want to be 3-3

Theyre the 3 under dogs with value for me

I like WC if the line eke's out a little. Geel's record is outstanding at Skilled, but there have been quite a few close games so I expect WC to be right in this till the end.

Ess form's been good but they really have only beaten up on a flat Bris, weak Melb team and NM who were deplorable. Line looks about right but Ess get Smith and Zaha back. I'd like to see how they go against a top team to see how they're really travelling.

If Freo don't get too far ahead of themselves they should easily account for WB. WB forward line has been very poor and with Hamling and Pearce on Naughton and Gowers I can't see them kicking a score. They're backline is also weak and coming up against in-form forwards like Hogan, McCarthy, Taberner, Walters and Matera. Duryea and Suckling out and the latter has been very good for them.

Hoping Lyon puts a tag on Bont. I like to oppose weaker sides that perform terribly then go on the road. I think they could get blown out here if their confidence is down.

 

[bettingonbetts]

ladbrokes $2.5 Tigers H2H Vs Dees offer is good

Loophole then put 40 on Melb on SB hopefully up by 15 at any qtr, guaranteed to win either way

 

[Keystone agony]

I like WC if the line eke's out a little. Geel's record is outstanding at Skilled, but there have been quite a few close games so I expect WC to be right in this till the end.

Ess form's been good but they really have only beaten up on a flat Bris, weak Melb team and NM who were deplorable. Line looks about right but Ess get Smith and Zaha back. I'd like to see how they go against a top team to see how they're really travelling.

If Freo don't get too far ahead of themselves they should easily account for WB. WB forward line has been very poor and with Hamling and Pearce on Naughton and Gowers I can't see them kicking a score. They're backline is also weak and coming up against in-form forwards like Hogan, McCarthy, Taberner, Walters and Matera. Duryea and Suckling out and the latter has been very good for them.

Hoping Lyon puts a tag on Bont. I like to oppose weaker sides that perform terribly then go on the road. I think they could get blown out here if their confidence is down.

Yeh after a bit more reflection:

Still quite like the eagles after a loss

Essendo havnt beaten anything and they already have them closer in betting than i suspected

I still think dogs could cause a boilover but there is also the chance it becomes a blown out game in favour of freo. Does last weeks win give them confidence or do they get ahead of themselves and think this game takes care of itself. Id want more than +14.5 thats for sure for the dogs.

North up against Port is also a possibility IMO. Port obviousily set themselves for a huge one and got the win but alot of heat on North.

Melbourne also a good chance tonight aswell alot of heat on them. bit of rain about and a night game could play into the contested style game the dees love

 

[demon_fanatic]

Loophole then put 40 on Melb on SB hopefully up by 15 at any qtr, guaranteed to win either way

12 up for sb promo