AFL 2019 - AFL Round 6

Who Covers the Line This Week?


  • Total voters
    33
  • Poll closed .
Joined
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#51
I like WC if the line eke's out a little. Geel's record is outstanding at Skilled, but there have been quite a few close games so I expect WC to be right in this till the end.

Ess form's been good but they really have only beaten up on a flat Bris, weak Melb team and NM who were deplorable. Line looks about right but Ess get Smith and Zaha back. I'd like to see how they go against a top team to see how they're really travelling.

If Freo don't get too far ahead of themselves they should easily account for WB. WB forward line has been very poor and with Hamling and Pearce on Naughton and Gowers I can't see them kicking a score. They're backline is also weak and coming up against in-form forwards like Hogan, McCarthy, Taberner, Walters and Matera. Duryea and Suckling out and the latter has been very good for them.

Hoping Lyon puts a tag on Bont. I like to oppose weaker sides that perform terribly then go on the road. I think they could get blown out here if their confidence is down.
Yeh after a bit more reflection:

Still quite like the eagles after a loss

Essendo havnt beaten anything and they already have them closer in betting than i suspected

I still think dogs could cause a boilover but there is also the chance it becomes a blown out game in favour of freo. Does last weeks win give them confidence or do they get ahead of themselves and think this game takes care of itself. Id want more than +14.5 thats for sure for the dogs.

North up against Port is also a possibility IMO. Port obviousily set themselves for a huge one and got the win but alot of heat on North.

Melbourne also a good chance tonight aswell alot of heat on them. bit of rain about and a night game could play into the contested style game the dees love
 

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targett

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#53
Yeh after a bit more reflection:

Still quite like the eagles after a loss

Essendo havnt beaten anything and they already have them closer in betting than i suspected

I still think dogs could cause a boilover but there is also the chance it becomes a blown out game in favour of freo. Does last weeks win give them confidence or do they get ahead of themselves and think this game takes care of itself. Id want more than +14.5 thats for sure for the dogs.

North up against Port is also a possibility IMO. Port obviousily set themselves for a huge one and got the win but alot of heat on North.

Melbourne also a good chance tonight aswell alot of heat on them. bit of rain about and a night game could play into the contested style game the dees love
Beautiful day in Melbourne...no rain !
 
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#57
Yeh after a bit more reflection:

Still quite like the eagles after a loss

Essendo havnt beaten anything and they already have them closer in betting than i suspected

I still think dogs could cause a boilover but there is also the chance it becomes a blown out game in favour of freo. Does last weeks win give them confidence or do they get ahead of themselves and think this game takes care of itself. Id want more than +14.5 thats for sure for the dogs.

North up against Port is also a possibility IMO. Port obviousily set themselves for a huge one and got the win but alot of heat on North.

Melbourne also a good chance tonight aswell alot of heat on them. bit of rain about and a night game could play into the contested style game the dees love
Yes I like to look at games in terms of momentum or confidence and try and predict the likely impact on performance.

I haven't recorded it yet but pretty sure weaker teams having a shocker then travelling is an indicator of poor performance - that's WB and NM.

Melb were shocking last week and a 4 day break isn't the ideal situation to turn it around.

Very weak / young teams when a win becomes a massive relief (Carl) often are woeful the next week.

Very good teams like WC and GWS should be able to bounce back from a shock loss.

Teams having a breakout win often kick on with confidence ie Ade.

Tricky game prediction though - sometimes you think a team kicks on with confidence after a good win but then they're massively flat.

Personally like ATS GWS, Rich, Freo, WC (hopefully closer to +18.5), Bris (got them at -10.5) wouldn't want it higher than it is now, got Carl +30.5 and hoping Hawks go to -15.5 where i'd double on on Hawks.

NM are a rabble but if it gets close to NM +28.5 then it's gone too far.

Neutral on Ess and Saints games.
 
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#59
Beautiful day in Melbourne...no rain !
Yeh expected more than what seems to occured. Still 80% humidity and a night game

I place a large emphasis on how i think a team is mentally going into a game and this has treated me pretty well. The issue is sometimes it can be very hard to predict.

Ie: GWS huge win over Geelong than lose to Fremantle at a ground they historically play so well

Eagles the aftermath of a derby win then lose at home to Port Adelaide who come off a very disappointing loss to Richmond in Adelaide

Melbourne disappointing, response?
WBD disappointing and clipped in media, response?
WCE given a clip in media, response?
North Melbourne disappointing and whacked in media, response?

Geelong won, Richmond won, Freo caused a huge boilover, Port caused a huge upset. There the 4 games that tick the boxes for me. I think if you get on the line you get atleast 2 right maybe more and probably an upset win or 2 aswell

Hawks and GWS the certainties for me this week. I also like Stkilda but no bet for me as is the pies/dons game
 
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#62
David Swallow 30+ @ 13.00 (Sportsbet)
Done it twice already in 2019.

Jarryd Lyons 30+ @ 56.00 (Sportsbet)
Very quiet this year, but worth a small flutter.
put the two in a multi.

$10 for a $25k collect :moustache:
 
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#63
Mel vs Rich

.6U Multi: Richmond -13.5, Edwards 25+ disposals, Melksham AGS @ 4.5
.4U Multi: Rich 25+, Edwards 30+ disposals, Melksham 2+ goals @ 27.5

GC vs Bris


.3U Multi: Gold Coast 25+, Swallow 30+ disposals, total points U170.5 @ 171

All SB.
 
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Joined
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#68
Adding:
1U J.Riewoldt O70.5 PB
0.3U Gawn 35 hitouts and 1 goal @5 Lads
0.2u Hunt 2 goals @5.5
0.2u Hunt AGS @2.15

Dont mind but no bet:
Harmes O88.5 avg about 100 in his past 12 AFL games
Lambert U85.5 playing more fwd recently and a high avg to maintain for him. Avg 81 last year and gone below 3/5 this year just he might love the non defending dees

Gawn as sole ruck is a very good chance to get atleast 35 hitouts avg 40 this year. Nank an undersized ruck who i think he had 56 on last year. So basically see it as $5 for anytime Goal which is value best i could see is $2 for Gawn.

Marty Hore signalled by haplin to be playing on Riewoldt which i feels fairly undersized and Riewoldt loves a big stage could take advantage of him. Avgs plenty more than this last year. Low line i take every time for Jack riewoldt

Tried to gwt tim smith @2 and 5.50 for 1/2
 
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