AFL 2019 - AFL Round 6

Who Covers the Line This Week?

  • Total voters
    33
  • Poll closed .

Remove this Banner Ad

Keystone agony said:
Yeh after a bit more reflection:

Still quite like the eagles after a loss

Essendo havnt beaten anything and they already have them closer in betting than i suspected

I still think dogs could cause a boilover but there is also the chance it becomes a blown out game in favour of freo. Does last weeks win give them confidence or do they get ahead of themselves and think this game takes care of itself. Id want more than +14.5 thats for sure for the dogs.

North up against Port is also a possibility IMO. Port obviousily set themselves for a huge one and got the win but alot of heat on North.

Melbourne also a good chance tonight aswell alot of heat on them. bit of rain about and a night game could play into the contested style game the dees love
Click to expand...
Beautiful day in Melbourne...no rain !
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Keystone agony said:
Yeh after a bit more reflection:

Still quite like the eagles after a loss

Essendo havnt beaten anything and they already have them closer in betting than i suspected

I still think dogs could cause a boilover but there is also the chance it becomes a blown out game in favour of freo. Does last weeks win give them confidence or do they get ahead of themselves and think this game takes care of itself. Id want more than +14.5 thats for sure for the dogs.

North up against Port is also a possibility IMO. Port obviousily set themselves for a huge one and got the win but alot of heat on North.

Melbourne also a good chance tonight aswell alot of heat on them. bit of rain about and a night game could play into the contested style game the dees love
Click to expand...
Yes I like to look at games in terms of momentum or confidence and try and predict the likely impact on performance.

I haven't recorded it yet but pretty sure weaker teams having a shocker then travelling is an indicator of poor performance - that's WB and NM.

Melb were shocking last week and a 4 day break isn't the ideal situation to turn it around.

Very weak / young teams when a win becomes a massive relief (Carl) often are woeful the next week.

Very good teams like WC and GWS should be able to bounce back from a shock loss.

Teams having a breakout win often kick on with confidence ie Ade.

Tricky game prediction though - sometimes you think a team kicks on with confidence after a good win but then they're massively flat.

Personally like ATS GWS, Rich, Freo, WC (hopefully closer to +18.5), Bris (got them at -10.5) wouldn't want it higher than it is now, got Carl +30.5 and hoping Hawks go to -15.5 where i'd double on on Hawks.

NM are a rabble but if it gets close to NM +28.5 then it's gone too far.

Neutral on Ess and Saints games.
 
targett said:
Beautiful day in Melbourne...no rain !
Click to expand...

Yeh expected more than what seems to occured. Still 80% humidity and a night game

I place a large emphasis on how i think a team is mentally going into a game and this has treated me pretty well. The issue is sometimes it can be very hard to predict.

Ie: GWS huge win over Geelong than lose to Fremantle at a ground they historically play so well

Eagles the aftermath of a derby win then lose at home to Port Adelaide who come off a very disappointing loss to Richmond in Adelaide

Melbourne disappointing, response?
WBD disappointing and clipped in media, response?
WCE given a clip in media, response?
North Melbourne disappointing and whacked in media, response?

Geelong won, Richmond won, Freo caused a huge boilover, Port caused a huge upset. There the 4 games that tick the boxes for me. I think if you get on the line you get atleast 2 right maybe more and probably an upset win or 2 aswell

Hawks and GWS the certainties for me this week. I also like Stkilda but no bet for me as is the pies/dons game
 
Last edited:
Mel vs Rich

.6U Multi: Richmond -13.5, Edwards 25+ disposals, Melksham AGS @ 4.5
.4U Multi: Rich 25+, Edwards 30+ disposals, Melksham 2+ goals @ 27.5

GC vs Bris

.3U Multi: Gold Coast 25+, Swallow 30+ disposals, total points U170.5 @ 171

All SB.
 
Last edited:

(Log in to remove this ad.)

DemonZombie_001 said:
Beteasy
Richmond v Melbourne
To Score 2 Or More Goals
Jack Higgins @ $3.15

He Averages 1.2 goals per game. And I have a feeling he will match up well against Melbourne tonight.
Click to expand...

$4.50 on b365

Also gone tigers O91.5 @1.91 Sb
 
Adding:
1U J.Riewoldt O70.5 PB
0.3U Gawn 35 hitouts and 1 goal @5 Lads
0.2u Hunt 2 goals @5.5
0.2u Hunt AGS @2.15

Dont mind but no bet:
Harmes O88.5 avg about 100 in his past 12 AFL games
Lambert U85.5 playing more fwd recently and a high avg to maintain for him. Avg 81 last year and gone below 3/5 this year just he might love the non defending dees

Gawn as sole ruck is a very good chance to get atleast 35 hitouts avg 40 this year. Nank an undersized ruck who i think he had 56 on last year. So basically see it as $5 for anytime Goal which is value best i could see is $2 for Gawn.

Marty Hore signalled by haplin to be playing on Riewoldt which i feels fairly undersized and Riewoldt loves a big stage could take advantage of him. Avgs plenty more than this last year. Low line i take every time for Jack riewoldt

Tried to gwt tim smith @2 and 5.50 for 1/2
 
Keystone agony said:
0.2U Baker 2 Goals @6 - SB ✅
0.2U Higgins Most Disposals vs Houli, Lambert, Vlastuin, N.Jones, Viney, Lewis, Petracca @13 - Lads ❌
0.2U Higgins Most Disposals vs Houli, Lambert, Ross, N.Jones, Fritsch, Petracca, Hibberd @11 - SB ❌
1U Tigers at 2.50 - Lads ✅
0.8U Melbourne at 2.60 - SB 12 up promo ❌
0.2U Harmes Most Tackles vs Castagna, Oliver, Mcintosh, Ross, Prestia, Salem, Melksham ❌
0.6U Nankervis U85.5 @1.88 PB ✅
1U Salem U94.5 @2.1 SB ✅
1U Ellis U88.5 @1.88 BEasy ❌
1U Harmes over B.Ellis @1.88 Beasy ❌
0.5U Houli over Edwards @1.88 Beasy ✅
1U J.Riewoldt O70.5 PB ✅
0.3U Gawn 35 hitouts and 1 goal @5 Lads ✅
0.2u Hunt 2 goals @5.5 ❌
0.2u Hunt AGS @2.15 ✅

8 - 7
+3.28 Units


* Nank best fantasy bet of the round just i can only get max $60 on it and ive moved the price too much to try some more
Click to expand...

A very good night

8 - 7
+3.28 Units
 
Last edited:
Ohh Ok said:
3u Oliver over 106.5 fantasy $1.87
3.5u Brayshaw over 103.5 fantasy $1.87

Both with lads.
Richmond conceding the most fantasy points per game this season and even if you take away the game where they got monstered by Collingwood they still rank last for points against. These two aren’t in their best form but this is definitely a good spot for them to clear their lines. Both have cleared their lines 3/5 times this season.
Click to expand...
Wow, that was tight as. Looks like you got Brayshaw by .5 points and missed Oliver by .5.
 
sledbomber said:
Wow, that was tight as. Looks like you got Brayshaw by .5 points and missed Oliver by .5.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't have been that tight. Can thank Melbourne's coaching staff for them not clearing those lines easily. Brayshaw spent the entire game on the wing rather than midfield and Oliver spent a lot of time forward.

Also Brayshaw didn't score in the last 10 minutes because he went forward until the final 2 minutes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

balmainforever
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 6
35 36 37 38 39
Replies
962
Views
22K
BloodRet
BloodRet
balmainforever
  • Sticky
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 7
2 3
Replies
55
Views
2K
Johanpetro
J
balmainforever
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 5
38 39 40 41 42
Replies
1K
Views
23K
Bucking Bronco
Bucking Bronco
balmainforever
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 4
33 34 35 36 37
Replies
919
Views
22K
freo_leo29
freo_leo29
balmainforever
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 3
50 51 52 53 54
Replies
1K
Views
30K
mouncey2franklin
mouncey2franklin
balmainforever
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 2
36 37 38 39 40
Replies
995
Views
26K
NYRB
N
balmainforever
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 1
37 38 39 40 41
Replies
1K
Views
24K
Fizza
Fizza
Back
Top