AFL 2019 - AFL Round 7

Who Covers the Line This Week?


  • Total voters
    28
  • Poll closed .

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Sketi

Club Legend
Jun 24, 2011
2,512
2,782
depreston
AFL Club
Sydney
Don't want to detail the Rnd 7 thread, however Essendon (A) -8.5 $1.90 on SB against Sydney for Rnd 8 is sticking right out at the moment.
Hell yeah and Brisbane this weekend. Bookies so slow to react to the steepness of Sydney's decline. I'm not betting much these days, just on Syds opponents lol, some supporter I am.
 

CarterS

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 14, 2001
8,679
6,038
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Lions
Hell yeah and Brisbane this weekend. Bookies so slow to react to the steepness of Sydney's decline. I'm not betting much these days, just on Syds opponents lol, some supporter I am.
Always underrate your own time I reckon, I have thought our opponents have been value every week this year just about!
 

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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,220
1,677
AFL Club
Essendon
Odds have actually gone up due to the eagles being so heavily favoured. Jeez a lot of people getting on Hanley. Just a suggestion guys. Feel like I might be chased out by a flaming stick mob after this round.
Please Gamble responsibly.
 

HTPunter

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2014
5,379
6,403
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Odds have actually gone up due to the eagles being so heavily favoured. Jeez a lot of people getting on Hanley. Just a suggestion guys. Feel like I might be chased out by a flaming stick mob after this round.
Please Gamble responsibly.
No more than a .5U throwaway but definitely a worthwhile risk @ $67 - bit like Dunkley/McLean at $101 last week.
 

HTPunter

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2014
5,379
6,403
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Don't mind taking a punt on North this weekend either. Kreuzer is a huge player for Carlton - he gives them a lot in the middle once the ball hits the ground in terms of his follow-up work. Think without him, Simpson and Newman (their 2 best users out of defence with no Docherty), and McGovern out (Curnow in but having the extra tall would have really stretched our defence) it becomes a game well in North's favour on paper.

North -4.5 is still available Sportsbet which is what I've jumped on.
 

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Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
663
724
AFL Club
Adelaide
Any reason you're rating North so highly?
-20.5 and 40+ were more value plays, but odds that I’ve taken were where the value is (was). Think North SU will still come in further.

More to do with Carlton though. They’ve put in a few strong performances in a row and have now lost some very key players to their success (Kreuzer, Simmo, Newman, McGovern), let down is definitely due. Few big outs imo. Backline loses a lot of experience and structure
 

maskmcgee

Club Legend
Feb 25, 2017
2,982
2,950
The Windy Apple
AFL Club
Essendon
I wanted to see just how many lines actually got covered, so using the data in the opening post for every rounds thread I got these results. The outcome of close lines was by consensus. e.g if the margin was 10, and more than half the listed bookmakers had -10.5 or over, then it did not cover.



2019 so far looks a bit different...



So far in 2019, 15 matches have had a line of 19.75 or more. 14 of those 15 failed to cover the line. This week 5 games have lines of 19.75 or more.

Lines covered by margin this year:
0.25 - 9.75: 7 of 17
9.75 - 19.75: 11 of 22
19.75 - 29.75: 1 of 9 (Adel v. GC)
29.75 - 39.75: 0 of 6
 
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