AFL 2019 - AFL Round 9

Who Covers the Line This Week?


  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

mookieb

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#26
No Melksham and Hibberd

The way they struggled to score against GC I think even if WCE are only going at 50% this is a 30 pt win minimum

There forwards will take advantage of there inexperience down back
I'm very keen to oppose Melb here. Two thrilling wins in a row might lead to a bit of relief / euphoria so good potential for a letdown spot.

Melksham has been their best forward. Hibberd one of their best backs and Lewis is a veteran presence. Add these to an extensive injury list and the Melb team facing WC will be inexperienced and quite weak from a talent perspective.

I see two options. WC cruises through and do what they have to and win by around 30 points (like the StK game where they beat the line by +2 goals despite not playing well) or they put the foot down and play with better intensity and win by 40+.
 

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LukeParkerno1

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#28
Strange thoughts.
Freo couldn't beat an understrength Richmond side at home and yet you expect them to get close to Essendon on their home track under the roof.
I tend to think your over estimating the ability of Freo
This is the same Essendon side that lost to Sydney though (who are a bottom 3 side this year). Richmond at least are a good side who can turn it on, and last week especially after playing woefully against the Bulldogs. I hope the line gets larger once Daniher gets named so I can have a decent go at the line.
 

JuniorWatch

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#29
This is the same Essendon side that lost to Sydney though (who are a bottom 3 side this year). Richmond at least are a good side who can turn it on, and last week especially after playing woefully against the Bulldogs. I hope the line gets larger once Daniher gets named so I can have a decent go at the line.
I wouldn't go near this game. Don't get me wrong, I don't rate Essendon highly but it would so us to lose a crucial game then come out firing at home against an interstate team when our season is pretty much shot. Did it last year against port and the year before that. Then again, zac Clarke and we could easily lose.
 

LukeParkerno1

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#30
I wouldn't go near this game. Don't get me wrong, I don't rate Essendon highly but it would so us to lose a crucial game then come out firing at home against an interstate team when our season is pretty much shot. Did it last year against port and the year before that. Then again, zac Clarke and we could easily lose.
Maybe you are right. Hoping the line increases to maybe 14.5 or so then will have a crack. Zac Clarke playing will be nice too (sorry to be a little mean lol)
 

NonPhixion

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#34
GWS made me look silly last week. But I’ve got a strong feeling they will respond heavily at home. They just have too much talent. O100.5 @1.88 Sb seems good to me. As I said last week Carlton has the weakest defence right now, even if Jones comes back in, He will be playing on the best forward right now. Missing Newman + Simpson hurts their structure defensively, last week their backline held up ok, but that always happens against Collingwood for some reason. Expecting differently this week, will wait to Whitfield is named to play this bet though. He is their best player right now and sets up so much play for them offensively.
 

Mazza1234678

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#35
I'm very keen to oppose Melb here. Two thrilling wins in a row might lead to a bit of relief / euphoria so good potential for a letdown spot.

Melksham has been their best forward. Hibberd one of their best backs and Lewis is a veteran presence. Add these to an extensive injury list and the Melb team facing WC will be inexperienced and quite weak from a talent perspective.

I see two options. WC cruises through and do what they have to and win by around 30 points (like the StK game where they beat the line by +2 goals despite not playing well) or they put the foot down and play with better intensity and win by 40+.
I’ve gone pretty large on the H2H but I think that line is also about 15 pts too low

I think down back is a massive issue, I watched them live against us and the way petruccle and Ryan got out the back is burning in my mind

Dees back line gets opened up big time, so adding rioli I see goals galore here
 
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#36
I’ve gone pretty large on the H2H but I think that line is also about 15 pts too low

I think down back is a massive issue, I watched them live against us and the way petruccle and Ryan got out the back is burning in my mind

Dees back line gets opened up big time, so adding rioli I see goals galore here
I agree. The current line looks way too short to me. It's interesting to note that Sportsbet still have Jake Melksham listed as second fave for Melbourne in the "first goal scorer" market, so if the bookies think he's playing, hence the line being -21.5 (as of Wednesday 12:10PM EST), once they catch on to the fact that he has a fractured foot and is expected to be out for over a month, that line has got to move out further. Rioli is a huge "in" for WC, and by all accounts, he should be playing. Darling and Kennedy are also due for a goal-fest. Can't see how Melbourne will get within five goals, and it could well be another repeat of their finals nightmare. Further, a lot of their best players from that finals thrashing aren't even playing on Friday night. They are depleted. IMO WC should be $1.15 H2H, and the line should be -30.5, at least.
 

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Mazza1234678

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#37
I agree. The current line looks way too short to me. It's interesting to note that Sportsbet still have Jake Melksham listed as second fave for Melbourne in the "first goal scorer" market, so if the bookies think he's playing, hence the line being -21.5 (as of Wednesday 12:10PM EST), once they catch on to the fact that he has a fractured foot and is expected to be out for over a month, that line has got to move out further. Rioli is a huge "in" for WC, and by all accounts, he should be playing. Darling and Kennedy are also due for a goal-fest. Can't see how Melbourne will get within five goals, and it could well be another repeat of their finals nightmare. Further, a lot of their best players from that finals thrashing aren't even playing on Friday night. They are depleted. IMO WC should be $1.15 H2H, and the line should be -30.5, at least.
Agree on everything

I just am shocked they are 1.3 and not 1.1
 

Zook

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#38
I agree. The current line looks way too short to me. It's interesting to note that Sportsbet still have Jake Melksham listed as second fave for Melbourne in the "first goal scorer" market, so if the bookies think he's playing, hence the line being -21.5 (as of Wednesday 12:10PM EST), once they catch on to the fact that he has a fractured foot and is expected to be out for over a month, that line has got to move out further. Rioli is a huge "in" for WC, and by all accounts, he should be playing. Darling and Kennedy are also due for a goal-fest. Can't see how Melbourne will get within five goals, and it could well be another repeat of their finals nightmare. Further, a lot of their best players from that finals thrashing aren't even playing on Friday night. They are depleted. IMO WC should be $1.15 H2H, and the line should be -30.5, at least.
I also agree, on paper the above is the case however; after watching all their games for the past few weeks they seem to take their foot off the gas for the last quarter.

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens again this weekend and Melbourne cover the line...
 
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#39
I also agree, on paper the above is the case however; after watching all their games for the past few weeks they seem to take their foot off the gas for the last quarter.

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens again this weekend and Melbourne cover the line...
With percentage very much a massive part of ladder position this year, I think WC will have their foot down to maintain the gap, esp. at home...at least I hope they do! ;)
 

Mazza1234678

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#43
Geez - when did Melksham become a champion of the game line moving stud? Would be worth about an 8th of a point if not named.
Agree he doesn’t impact the line but he is a massive out

Arguably been the dees best player this year, which says something about how there traveling
 
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#47
Agree he doesn’t impact the line but he is a massive out

Arguably been the dees best player this year, which says something about how there traveling
Easily top three. Their best ball user in the forward half - which has been a significant problem outside him - which is probably why they threw him into the middle the last two weeks (ahead of Brayshaw).
 

targett

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#49
Topsport Line Movements

West Coast -21.5 1.9 > -22.5 1.85
St Kilda 28.5 1.9 > 27.5 1.9 > 27.5 1.85
Adelaide 4.5 1.9 > 3.5 1.9 > 4.5 1.85
Geelong -29.5 1.9 > -30.5 1.8
Fremantle 17.5 1.9 > 16.5 1.85
Kangaroos -4.5 1.9 > -12.5 1.9
Port -31.5 1.9 > -34.5 1.9
Hawthorn 9.5 1.9 > 7.5 1.8
Carlton 39.5 1.9 > 37.5 1.9
 
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