AFL 2019 - AFL Round 9

[chrisdon16]

Fremantle +16.5 ($1.91 Beteasy)

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Geez - when did Melksham become a champion of the game line moving stud? Would be worth about an 8th of a point if not named.[/QUOTE

Geez - when did Melksham become a champion of the game line moving stud? Would be worth about an 8th of a point if not named.

You might want to check Melksham's stats before pushing the sarcasm button. He is an integral part of their "system," and not easily replaced. Aside from a handy goal here and there, he regularly contributes to goal assists, and he gets his fair share of disposals too. I didn't ever compare him to a "Carey, Locket or Dunstall," as chrisdon16 initially quipped in (then posting a follow up comment, conceding he is important to their structure) but he is yet another out they can't afford, especially so in a team with a lot of substantial outs already. Line has crept up slightly, but I expect it will climb even more once the teams are announced later. Just my opinion.

 

[iluvparis]

Even if it does it would take a fair stretch that people are reacting to Melksham not being named.

 

[sampeck4]

West Coast, Collingwood, Geelong, Port Adelaide, GWS $2.71

do it on bet easy get money back in bonus bets if one leg fails

 

[Mazza1234678]

You might want to check Melksham's stats before pushing the sarcasm button. He is an integral part of their "system," and not easily replaced. Aside from a handy goal here and there, he regularly contributes to goal assists, and he gets his fair share of disposals too. I didn't ever compare him to a "Carey, Locket or Dunstall," as chrisdon16 initially quipped in (then posting a follow up comment, conceding he is important to their structure) but he is yet another out they can't afford, especially so in a team with a lot of substantial outs already. Line has crept up slightly, but I expect it will climb even more once the teams are announced later. Just my opinion.

Petracca Garlett and Lewis didn’t get on the plane either apparently

Edit Petracca is Playing

 

[maskmcgee]

do it on bet easy get money back in bonus bets if one leg fails

Yep, did that 2 days ago.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Geez - when did Melksham become a champion of the game line moving stud? Would be worth about an 8th of a point if not named.

Melksham is hugely underrated, possibly because his own supporters were his biggest critics at Essendon.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Rockliff's stats without Wines in that old inside role he used to rack them up in with the Lions is interesting.

Please explain.

 

[Hu$tler]

Please explain.

Wines out, Rockliff plays in the guts more. Pretty simple.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I'm liking:

Freo SU against Essendon @ 2.85

Essendon could come out and win this by 60+, but they truly do seem to play worse when favourites. Bizarre team. Fantasia out is huge. Freo knocked off GWS away, they can beat anybody away. Worth a unit, and maybe one or two multis.

West Coast 40+ vs Melbourne @ 2.80

Melbourne struggled to get over GC, now they fly to Perth a few players down. Defence still a shambles. Will get ragdolled if WC come to play.

North SU vs Sydney @ 1.50

Three defenders return for North this week, all of them important in their own way: Williams the best small defender in the team, Thompson the general, and McDonald gains metres (even if his kicking is questionable). Team has a different dynamic than at the beginning of the season. Sydney are horrible, not sure what Essendon were doing to lose against them.

Suns SU against Port @ 4.75

You can't play as many kids as Port are playing this week and expect it to work. Depending on who makes the final 22, there could be as many as 11 Port players with 10 games or less experience going into this match. That is truly insane. Fiorini back in for the Suns is huge, too.

Will wait for final teams tomorrow, but likely to place a unit on each of these and then put together some fraction-unit multies on a few of them as well. If Port plan to go in with half a team of <10 game players I will also look at PYOL bets as well, for example GC -15.5 is @ 15s right now.

 

[targett]

TopSport Line Movements

West Coast -21.5 1.9 > -22.5 1.85 > -25.5 1.90
St Kilda 28.5 1.9 > 27.5 1.9 > 27.5 1.85 > 28.5 1.95
Adelaide 4.5 1.9 > 3.5 1.9 > 4.5 1.85 > 4.5 1.9
Geelong -29.5 1.9 > -30.5 1.8 > -32.5 1.85
Fremantle 17.5 1.9 > 16.5 1.85 > 16.5 1.85
Kangaroos -4.5 1.9 > -12.5 1.9 > -13.5 1.9
Port -31.5 1.9 > -34.5 1.9 > -34.5 1.85
Hawthorn 9.5 1.9 > 7.5 1.8 > 5.5 1.9
Carlton 39.5 1.9 > 37.5 1.9 > 36.5 1.9

 

[NonPhixion]

Early plays
WHE 2+ @3.10, 3+ @9 b365
My favourite play of the week here. Will be his 4th game back from injury, he was probably rushed back in a week or 2 early tbh, so rekon he is cherry ripe now. Elliot is out and De Goey is under an injury cloud, could honestly not play. So I rekon WHE plays deeper fwd.
Allen 2+ @3.50
Sexton 2+ @2.50
Corbett 2+ @8.50
Wood 2+ @3.10
Powell-pepper O20.5 @1.79
All Sb

 

[freo_leo29]

Connor Blakely to have 25 @2.30

Should play midfield, replaces Neale in the guts

 

[benji21]

Connor Blakely to have 25 @2.30

Should play midfield, replaces Neale in the guts

Was looking at that, they've named him HB which isn't unusual for him, but surely plays the guts, other one i like with that is Mundy ATGS at 2.15, thinking if Blakely plays guts they'll have Mundy drift forward.

 

[freo_leo29]

Michael Walters 2+ @3.10 B365

Speculative but if Blakely is in the guts then I reckon he eats into Walters mid time, sending him forward

 

[JuniorWatch]

Few spot fires i like:
McEvoy 2+goals @ $5 SB (will be more time fwd with Ceglar in the side. Up against Soldo/CCJ. Is 3/8 on this market in 2019)
Darcy Fort 2+goals @ $5 SB/AGS $2.10 LB (not amazing odds but playing majority fwd against an undersized WB def)
McCluggage 2+goals @ $4.33 SB (kicked 11 this year and has hit this market 4/8)
Hurn 26.5+poss @ $1.91 SB (dees love a behind and an errant I50)
Acres AGS @ $2.30 LB (is 4/7 this year and playing fwd)
Macrae O107.5SC @ $1.87 LB (I'm 8/8 on this market so avoid this bet at all costs cos it's probably time)

On the lookout for Mrouch unders markets, looks pretty hobbled to me.

 

[chrisdon16]

WC MEL - u156.5 ($1.91 b365)

 

[NonPhixion]

Few spot fires i like:
McEvoy 2+goals @ $5 SB (will be more time fwd with Ceglar in the side. Up against Soldo/CCJ. Is 3/8 on this market in 2019)
Darcy Fort 2+goals @ $5 SB/AGS $2.10 LB (not amazing odds but playing majority fwd against an undersized WB def)
McCluggage 2+goals @ $4.33 SB (kicked 11 this year and has hit this market 4/8)
Hurn 26.5+poss @ $1.91 SB (dees love a behind and an errant I50)
Acres AGS @ $2.30 LB (is 4/7 this year and playing fwd)
Macrae O107.5SC @ $1.87 LB (I'm 8/8 on this market so avoid this bet at all costs cos it's probably time)

On the lookout for Mrouch unders markets, looks pretty hobbled to me.

Tailing Acres

 

[targett]

M.Crouch OUT

 

[cznsnowy91]

Is the promo on lads for J Kennedy to kick two goals in the first half at $3 worth it?

 

[demon_fanatic]

WC MEL - u156.5 ($1.91 b365)

What's you're reasoning..you feeling a 90-60 type score?

 

[JuniorWatch]

Is the promo on lads for J Kennedy to kick two goals in the first half at $3 worth it?

Don't think so. He's $2.88 to kick 4 for the match at SB which would mean he's similar odds to kick 2 for the half.

 

[chrisdon16]

GWS -35.5 ($1.91 b365)

GWS Team Total o99.5 ($1.85 b365)

 

[chrisdon16]

What's you're reasoning..you feeling a 90-60 type score?

Model related.

Footy related, both teams struggling to kick a score. You'd think the Dees will have to slow the game up to have any chance of winning considering they're offence is non existent at the moment.

Dees defence was way off to start the season but they've been more organised down back over the past 3 weeks.

Nek minnit high scoring shootout...

 

[targett]

The eagles have covered 31 of 47 in Perth when favoured by 3 goals or more.