2019 Analysis

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round 10 free kick table:

table r10.JPG

how we fared:

frees r10.JPG

points of note:
- moved up 5 spots thanks to a 2 kick victory over the Brions, where we received the most free kicks in a game all year but almost conceded as many (which is how Brisbane have played free kick wise all year),
- despite the 25 we received yesterday we've still received the fewest free kicks, but the 23 against means we've now conceded the third fewest free kicks behind Western Bulldogs and Collingwood (this week's opponent),
- as well as conceding the second fewest free kicks, Collingwood has also received the second most frees which is a concern for us. they however receive more frees playing away (+37) than they do at home (+11) so there's some hope there
 
Thought we got out tackled on the weekend so went to look up the stats for the year. Areas of improvement

Ranked:
17th for tackles
17th for tackles inside 50
2nd for turnovers

Tackling numbers don't seem to have a great correlation to the ladder, turnovers is a little better with cats, pies, giants and lions having the least turnovers

Also, On the couch had Brayshaw and Dow as the 2 players with the lowest kick rating in the comp.
 
Well half way through the year and some interesting observations made.

We're still 2nd best defense, but now 12th best offense. What does the paper thin analysis tell me? Nothing that we don't know... we'll generally be in games, but generally won't be able to put sides away.

We've also won the most amount of last quarters, so that is a very good sign. Generally young sides fall off in the last quarter.

The Essendon game was truly disappointing in hindsight. They were deplorable against us.
 

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We currently have our highest Squiggle rating since the end of 2015, and it's by some margin. We are also the largest improver from seasons starting position in that system, again by some margin. With only minimal improvement in our forward connection (Or opening up other avenues to goal. I haven't seen the stats but I'm guessing we're scoring much more heavily on the turnover than stoppages) we could be pushing up into the genuine contention zone*. If you really put the purple glasses on it looks very much like Richmonds progress through the 2017 season.

*I don't think we will though, as coming straight out of a rebuild there is little experience on the pine. Still you never know: 13 wins might get you 5th this season, rather than just scraping into the 8, and we don't actually need that much luck for that to occur (other than with injuries!).
 
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Paracleet said:
We currently have our highest Squiggle rating since the end of 2015, and it's by some margin. We are also the largest improver from seasons starting position in that system, again by some margin. With only minimal improvement in our forward connection (Or opening up other avenues to goal. I haven't seen the stats but I'm guessing we're scoring much more heavily on the turnover than stoppages) we could be pushing up into the genuine contention zone*. If you really put the purple glasses on it looks very much like Richmonds progress through the 2017 season.

*I don't think we will though, as coming straight out of a rebuild there little experience on the pine. Still you never know: 13 wins might get you 5th this season, rather than just scraping into the 8, and we don't actually need that much luck for that to occur (other than with injuries!).
Click to expand...

Pretty significant improvement from us - if we can win against teams around us and below on the ladder through the rest of the season we will finish in the eight easily. I think there is an opportunity for our percentage to be in the 115-120 range by season end also. We need to win big against Carlton and another at home.

I am most concerned about Geelong - Wce and Melbourne away. Dees have been better recently. If we use our run and get on top we should be fine. A grind it out game suits them.

Wce - if we don't get ump reamed we should go close and if we take our opps early we could win.

Gee- if we can be close throughout it is a win for us despite the end result. They have Sydney away before us so hopefully with 'so much travel' they are a little tired...
 
Tonga Bob said:
round 11 free kick table:

View attachment 687087

and us?

View attachment 687088
Click to expand...
as much as I love & appreciate these tables, variations in numbers of free kicks don't take into account where & when free kicks occur, & just as importantly, when advantage is called.
There were at least 2 play-on-advantage situations for us against Collingwood, so those free kicks have no actual impact on play.
 
yyou said:
as much as I love & appreciate these tables, variations in numbers of free kicks don't take into account where & when free kicks occur, & just as importantly, when advantage is called.
There were at least 2 play-on-advantage situations for us against Collingwood, so those free kicks have no actual impact on play.
Click to expand...
very true. it's the free kicks that aren't paid that are the more telling in many occasions. I also like the idea of a free kick weighting based on things like game time expired, score at the time and whether a free kick led to a a goal being kicked/prevented, however I have neither the time nor the data to do that
 
poshman said:
Pretty significant improvement from us - if we can win against teams around us and below on the ladder through the rest of the season we will finish in the eight easily. I think there is an opportunity for our percentage to be in the 115-120 range by season end also. We need to win big against Carlton and another at home.

I am most concerned about Geelong - Wce and Melbourne away. Dees have been better recently. If we use our run and get on top we should be fine. A grind it out game suits them.

Wce - if we don't get ump reamed we should go close and if we take our opps early we could win.

Gee- if we can be close throughout it is a win for us despite the end result. They have Sydney away before us so hopefully with 'so much travel' they are a little tired...
Click to expand...
Melbourne may go into rebuild/tank mode rather than fight for wins if they get to a point where they are out of contention.

I think we are unpredictable about what we produce in the second half of the year. Pearce will have a significant negative impact, and until Logue has shown he can stay fit and produce in similar role I am nervous. Bennell and SHill can impact us. Sandilands and Darcy?

I am really encouraged by our 4th quarters, and hopefully it keeps the team in contention for the remainder of the year.
 
theGav56 said:
Melbourne may go into rebuild/tank mode rather than fight for wins if they get to a point where they are out of contention.

I think we are unpredictable about what we produce in the second half of the year. Pearce will have a significant negative impact, and until Logue has shown he can stay fit and produce in similar role I am nervous. Bennell and SHill can impact us. Sandilands and Darcy?

I am really encouraged by our 4th quarters, and hopefully it keeps the team in contention for the remainder of the year.
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If Melbourne lose this week (likely) they will be 3-9. They'd have to win 10 straight (or at least 9/10) from there to play finals from there. Will be interesting to see if they still come out hard against us after their bye. I'd be managing all of the key players for 2020.
 
Joao said:
If Melbourne lose this week (likely) they will be 3-9. They'd have to win 10 straight (or at least 9/10) from there to play finals from there. Will be interesting to see if they still come out hard against us after their bye. I'd be managing all of the key players for 2020.
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What a shocker of a year that would be... resting key players would be the go - get the best pick possible and win 5-7 games.
 
It would not be in Goodwin or the current players interest not to go hard. Also their form has improved and they are a much better side than 16th. Had the best of games against WC and the Crows that they lost. Away at the G they will hardly be much less of a challenge than Collingwood were. (Like the Pies though being a bit slow they might struggle with our outside run, and they are not up to Collingwoods standard defensively)
 

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Paracleet said:
It would not be in Goodwin or the current players interest not to go hard. Also their form has improved and they are a much better side than 16th. Had the best of games against WC and the Crows that they lost. Away at the G they will hardly be much less of a challenge than Collingwood were. (Like the Pies though being a bit slow they might struggle with our outside run, and they are not up to Collingwoods standard defensively)
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I agree they will have pride (and self interest). Hoping that coming off their bye is enough to counter that. Certainly has accounted for us recently.
 
free kick table after round 13:

table r13.JPG

and how we fared:

frees r13.JPG

points of note:

- a +17 free kick differential against Port (no really!!) sees us overtake Hawthorn in terms of number of free kicks received,
- this has skewed the home game differential (+18) and game won differential (+15)
 
Tonga Bob said:
free kick table after round 13:

View attachment 693852

and how we fared:

View attachment 693853

points of note:

- a +17 free kick differential against Port (no really!!) sees us overtake Hawthorn in terms of number of free kicks received,
- this has skewed the home game differential (+18) and game won differential (+15)
Click to expand...
Loving this table . As a tiger supporter it gladdens the heart that unless things go completely pear shaped we will break our run of back to back minus 100 free kick seasons although I do believe we will for a third straight season lead the league in the negative free kick differential 😀
 
Stars align said:
Loving this table . As a tiger supporter it gladdens the heart that unless things go completely pear shaped we will break our run of back to back minus 100 free kick seasons although I do believe we will for a third straight season lead the league in the negative free kick differential 😀
Click to expand...
Seems your team is better when it is giving away more free kicks.
 
https://thewest.com.au/sport/freman...team-in-wa-says-jonathan-brown-ng-b881233790z

I now remember an article which I shared in Oct 2015 as my first post in BF which raised huge ambush in our forum and some of the members told to troll me out.It was an article by Jonathan brown just a few weeks after our defeat in the Prelim- final against Hawks in 2015.Everyone was expecting us to contend for premiership in 2016 including myself. But I saw a different article by Jonathon Brown saying we may not even make 8 and he was illustrating some data. And at the end of the article he says FREO will be contending again in 2019.........
How accurately he predicted our destiny 3-4 years ago?:)
Unfortunately the article is not available in theroar.com.au anymore
The new article which I am posting now in which he tells his opinions with wide range of datas (including historical patterns in AFL)..


So I am taking his words again.................... and this time his predictions are good news for FREO!!!!
 
round 17 free kick table:

table r17.JPG

us:

frees r17.JPG

notes:

- new table leader, with Collingwood overtaking Bullies
- Gold Coast punching above their weight still
- if Sydney & Richmond win their free kick counts this weekend we will be stone motherless
- Essendon complained about the free kick count vs Collingwood on ANZAC Day (which they lost 14-17), since then they have a free kick record of 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (by 1 free kick)
- Western Bulldogs (who we play at Spidey Stadium in 2 weeks) have a home free kick differential of +55
 
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