Prediction 2019 Betting Thread

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John Who

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#4
I searched for the last thread and saw i'd started a few of these... whoops

Anyhoo, was looking through the markets and saw this

View attachment 591779 View attachment 591778 View attachment 591777

I like $1.62 for us to make the 8 - you'd think that's a shoe-in
Imagine you gave this same advice last year, and everybody joined in on the betting. Your job as a Mod would have been in real jeopardy with us missing the Finals this year!

I like the odds for us making the 8 next year, just don’t like the words “shoe-in”.
 

GreyCrow

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#5
Imagine you gave this same advice last year, and everybody joined in on the betting. Your job as a Mod would have been in real jeopardy with us missing the Finals this year!

I like the odds for us making the 8 next year, just don’t like the words “shoe-in”.
Pfft if Burton kept his I'm fairly sure deaneus would have kept his
 

1970crow

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#7
I've got a couple couple of horses racing today in Alice, I type this from the luxuriant surrounds of The Oxford. Kummerlings in race 2 we're hoping will run second at a good price to Mandater that beat her by 4L last start. Bels lad in the last is a not bad e-w bet presently at $9 or so. Trainer would have preferred a couple more weeks which is a concern but other owner is pretty confident. He'll roll to the lead, turn in front and we'll see if he holds on. Won't be surprised if he's swallowed up by half a dozen over the last 50m though.
 

GreyCrow

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#8
I've got a couple couple of horses racing today in Alice, I type this from the luxuriant surrounds of The Oxford. Kummerlings in race 2 we're hoping will run second at a good price to Mandater that beat her by 4L last start. Bels lad in the last is a not bad e-w bet presently at $9 or so. Trainer would have preferred a couple more weeks which is a concern but other owner is pretty confident. He'll roll to the lead, turn in front and we'll see if he holds on. Won't be surprised if he's swallowed up by half a dozen over the last 50m though.
I like the jockeys name
 
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#9
I searched for the last thread and saw i'd started a few of these... whoops

Anyhoo, was looking through the markets and saw this

View attachment 591779 View attachment 591778 View attachment 591777

I like $1.62 for us to make the 8 - you'd think that's a shoe-in
The bets I like there are:

Hawks to miss the 8 @ 2.05
Swans to miss the 8 @ 2.05
Adelaide to make the 8 @ 1.62
Essendon to make the 8 @ 1.62
North to miss the 8 @ 1.57
Melbourne to make top 4 @ 2.10

Then load up on us to win 14-15 games (have a bit on each one).


Needs bottom 4 and wooden spoon markets.
 
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#10
Not sure what agency that's with but Sportsbet has better odds for us to make the 8. $1.77 on there :)

I put 200 on us a few weeks ago at that price and it's still available. Got better odds for the premiership at $16 too.
 

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Elite Crow

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#12
I've got a couple couple of horses racing today in Alice, I type this from the luxuriant surrounds of The Oxford. Kummerlings in race 2 we're hoping will run second at a good price to Mandater that beat her by 4L last start. Bels lad in the last is a not bad e-w bet presently at $9 or so. Trainer would have preferred a couple more weeks which is a concern but other owner is pretty confident. He'll roll to the lead, turn in front and we'll see if he holds on. Won't be surprised if he's swallowed up by half a dozen over the last 50m though.
I want a refund, I put $1k on both
 
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#17
I searched for the last thread and saw i'd started a few of these... whoops

Anyhoo, was looking through the markets and saw this

View attachment 591779 View attachment 591778 View attachment 591777

I like $1.62 for us to make the 8 - you'd think that's a shoe-in
Good job Deaneus.
I think this is the year a lot of us will have a casual bet on the Crows.
The only time having a bet is worthwhile is when your coming off a terrible year....circumstances have made the Crows look shit ...but we have the knowledge a lot of others dont have (or dont want to acknowledge) that a turnaround is very close.
The facts are:
We were minor premiers in 2017
We were missing Smith & B Crouch for all of 2018 - Both elite players.
We then had a serious injury with Sloan.
Other key players - eg. Walker, Betts, Jacobs were carrying injuries through the year.
Lynch, Knight, M. Crouch and others picked up soft tissue injuries.
Late in the year we looked much better - Milera and Gooch both took big steps forward.
We only just missed the finals.

This year our fixture is MUCH more favorable.
Another preseason into Keith, Greenwood, Milera, CEY, Fog and Murphy adds much to our depth and ability to run out games.
All key players bar Talia look cherry ripe to have much better years.
Our list profile is in great shape and we are statistically ranked second in the league.
Players that have let us down in the past - Mackay, Atkins, Kelly....now have presure to retain their spots....and can be replaced by proven quality players.
The mind set in the playing group will switch to being the hunters...rather than the hunted.
We have a score to settle and passion will he high.
PLUS - the new rule changes around kickins and centre bounch zones may favor the Crows - long kicking, "slingshot" style of game from 2017.
Without a loose man in defence....how are opposition clubs going to stop Walker, Betts and Jenkins - 1 on 1 ???
We have the No. 1 ranked defense now....at a time when flooding will become much harder.

All this doesn't mean the Crows will win the flag in 2019.
BUT - our odds of making the top 8 are WAY better than $1.77 reflects.
Same with top 4
Same with winning the flag - odds of $16 with some agencies are crazy !!!
I'm holding fire till later in the preseason to make sure B.Crouch and other key players are fit and ready to go.
Then im going hard at top 4....with a decent amount on the flag.
The odds available on the Crows in 2019 are just too good to not have a dip !!!
 
Last edited:

Socrates2

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#18
I like Freo to make the eight but not at these odds,much better odds on betfair who have a close to 100% market whilst the corporate bookies take 10 to 17% before you start.
 
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