AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,015
908
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
That time of year again, folks, when its time to look toward the yearly round-by-round Brownlow count. I'll post my weekly votes here as I have for the past 8-9 years, and always look forward to seeing other tallies along the way.

Pre-season stable:

Dustin Martin - $6
Angus Brayshaw - $21
Jack Macrae - $34
Lachie Neale - $34
Dom Sheed - $41
Jack Viney - $101
Tom Liberatore - $151

Good luck, all.
 

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jack 23

Team Captain
Apr 22, 2017
583
263
AFL Club
Geelong
Who do we think got the votes last night? Cripps and Martin odds dropped during match. I didnt watch all the game but assume they could both get 1-3 votes.

I only put a small preseason bet on Cripps $9 and Zorko $251 only with the intention of cashing out if he starts well.

My watchlist includes Neale, Brayshaw, Coniglio, Heppell, Laird, Sidebottom.

But the usual suspects like Martin, Cripps, Danger, Fyfe are favourites for a reason.

Hope theres some money to be made from early bets. Getting Mitchell at $15 in round 1 last year was what made me profits 25 weeks later.
 

jack 23

Team Captain
Apr 22, 2017
583
263
AFL Club
Geelong
Decided to load up on Cripps @ $8 mid game last night, he dropped into fav with most bookies after the game. I think if Carlton can win 5-6 games this year then he should be pretty hard to beat.
unfortunately his 2nd half wasnt as great. Should be around the votes though. $8 is a good get. Carlton looked better than last year too which will help him. early days though.
 

ronpingwins

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2013
1,454
2,529
AFL Club
West Coast
Leaning towards Cotchin 3 and the 2 and 1 between Nankervis and Cripps. Cripps was pretty quiet in the last quarter and wasn't a massive factor in their comeback, would be pretty surprised if he got the 3.
 

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Browney2006

Premiership Player
Jun 4, 2006
3,348
373
AFL Club
Essendon
Betting on someone after watching them for half a game in the first game of the season?

No wonder this country has a gambling problem.
Much better to wait 3-4 weeks for odds to halve then? If you have a hunch then you need to get on early its how punting works, hes already into $6 with most bookies, another dollar shorter and i could cash out a profit.
 

BawsDawg

Draftee
Sep 17, 2016
14
32
AFL Club
Essendon
I did really well on the “who will get the 3 votes?” Market for the Brownlow on BetEasy last year. Focused on games that I watched start to finish and could remember. Would appreciate if people updated this thread if they watch a full game and have an opinion who will get the 3.
 

PP34

Finals MVP
Oct 8, 2009
26,446
19,119
AFL Club
Carlton
unfortunately his 2nd half wasnt as great. Should be around the votes though. $8 is a good get. Carlton looked better than last year too which will help him. early days though.
Yeah I like him a lot if Carlton can win some more games. Mitchell being gone definitely helps his chances too.

Umpires seem to like him too. There's always the worry though that you can just think a player will automatically add votes the next season, while ignoring that other players can also do the same. I expect Dangerfield to feature more strongly again this season, Fyfe could stay fit and like always I'm sure there will be a bolter.

But 8 dollars is good value. Wish I pulled the trigger a few weeks back on Walsh and Cripps to win the Rising Star and Brownlow. Was too late on Walsh and he got smashed into 3 bucks to win the rising star.
 

TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,015
908
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
ROUND 1

CARL v RICH
3 T Nankervis (Rich)
2 T Cotchin (Rich)
1 P Cripps (Carl)

COLL v GEEL
3 T Kelly (Geel)
2 A Treloar (Coll)
1 P Dangerfield (Geel)

MELB v PA
3 J Westhoff (PA)
2 T Rockliff (PA)
1 T Boak (PA)

ADEL v HAW
3 J Worpel (Haw)
2 J O'Meara (Haw)
1 M Crouch (Adel)

WB v SYD
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 A Naughton (WB)
1 J Lloyd (Syd)

BRIS v WCE
3 L Neale (Bris)
2 D Sheed (WCE)
! H McCluggage (Bris)

ST K v GC
3 B Fiorini (GC)
2 J Steven (St K)
1 S Ross (St K)

GWS v ESS
3 T Taranto (GWS)
2 S Coniglio (GWS)
1 J Hopper (GWS)

FREO v NM
3 N Fyfe (Freo)
2 B Hill (Freo)
1 C McCarthy (Freo)
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
5,004
4,436
AFL Club
Collingwood
ROUND 1

CARL v RICH
3 T Nankervis (Rich)
2 T Cotchin (Rich)
1 P Cripps (Carl)

COLL v GEEL
3 T Kelly (Geel)
2 A Treloar (Coll)
1 P Dangerfield (Geel)

MELB v PA
3 J Westhoff (PA)
2 T Rockliff (PA)
1 T Boak (PA)

ADEL v HAW
3 J Worpel (Haw)
2 J O'Meara (Haw)
1 M Crouch (Adel)

WB v SYD
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 A Naughton (WB)
1 J Lloyd (Syd)

BRIS v WCE
3 L Neale (Bris)
2 D Sheed (WCE)
! H McCluggage (Bris)

ST K v GC
3 B Fiorini (GC)
2 J Steven (St K)
1 S Ross (St K)

GWS v ESS
3 T Taranto (GWS)
2 S Coniglio (GWS)
1 J Hopper (GWS)

FREO v NM
3 N Fyfe (Freo)
2 B Hill (Freo)
1 C McCarthy (Freo)
I cant beleive Treloar is getting votes from lots of sources. he was terrible even if he did get a lot of the ball, Interesting how the umps would see it.
 

XXRL

Club Legend
Aug 29, 2013
1,274
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Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Perth Glory
These are my Rd 1 numbers:

Carlton vs Richmond
Trent Cotchin 2.5
Patrick Cripps 2
Toby Nankervis 1
Nick Newman 0.5

Collingwood vs Geelong
Tim Kelly 3
Adam Treloar 1.5
Patrick Dangerfield 0.5
Gary Ablett 0.5
Joel Selwood 0.5

Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
Tom Rockliff 3
Travis Boak 1.5
Justin Westhoff 1.5

Adelaide vs Hawthorn
James Worpel 2.5
Jaeger O'Meara 2
Rory Sloane 1
James Sicily 0.5

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney
Marcus Bontempelli 3
Tom Liberatore 1
Aaron Naughton 1
Jake Lloyd 1

Brisbane vs West Coast
Lachie Neale 3
Dom Sheed 2
Lincoln McCarthy 0.5
Jarryd Lyons 0.5

St Kilda vs Gold Coast
Jack Steele 2
Brayden Fiorini 2
Seb Ross 1.5
Jack Billings 0.5

GWS vs Essendon
Stephen Coniglio 3
Tim Taranto 1.5
Lachie Whitfield 0.5
Jacob Hopper 0.5
Jeremy Cameron 0.5

Fremantle vs North Melbourne
Nat Fyfe 3
Brad Hill 1.5
Cam McCarthy 1.5
 

jack 23

Team Captain
Apr 22, 2017
583
263
AFL Club
Geelong
Do you guys watch all the games? Surely you have to make educated guesses on a lot from reading the match reports and AFLCA votes?

Wondering if you'd be willing to asterix* the games you are highly confident about, or alternatively didnt watch etc.

Would help the average punter when we go back over these at brownlow time and put 3 votes game bets on etc.
 

XXRL

Club Legend
Aug 29, 2013
1,274
1,467
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Perth Glory
Do you guys watch all the games? Surely you have to make educated guesses on a lot from reading the match reports and AFLCA votes?

Wondering if you'd be willing to asterix* the games you are highly confident about, or alternatively didnt watch etc.

Would help the average punter when we go back over these at brownlow time and put 3 votes game bets on etc.
I did not watch all the games. I based my numbers off watching some games, a look at stats, reports in the paper and other counts / leaderboards floating around.

It's a fraught business trying to predict brownlow votes so my advice would be to either (a) do your own count that you're happy with, or (b) look at a bunch of counts and aggregate them as the season progresses or in the lead up to the night.

I just posted mine as an addition to the mix. All care; no responsibility.
 

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