AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

[Benjo_]

Cripps under 23.5 votes at $1.75 (SB) looks a shout

 

[NonPhixion]

Petracca to poll a vote @3.75 B365
Stats aren’t huge but thought he was top 3 on the ground against the Pies Rd 21

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Petracca to poll a vote @3.75 B365
Stats aren’t huge but thought he was top 3 on the ground against the Pies Rd 21

Petracca has only polled in 3 career matches and has been ignored in the past for kicking 3 and 4 goals in wins.

 

[Tigers04]

When do they usually release the 3 vote games?

 

[BOOYAH1987]

A lot of my profits brownlow night hinge on Fyfe coming Top 3. Put a lot of bets on this throughout the season @ $2-$2.50 thinking it was a good value / safe bet.

Last 2 rounds of the year have made this a bit more interesting with danger,bont and neale all having big games...

Will be surprised if Fyfe isnt Top 4. Fingers crossed top 3. $2.20 Fyfe to place still seems good value to me.

Theres a few games of his that will be pivitol how he polls in freos losses. Recall Fre v Hawks in tassie Fyfe could get 1 vote or 3 votes. will come down to umps opinion.

He should get 3 that game.. Basically got them back in the game on his own boot in a matter of 5 mins!

 

[stuziman]

Tab have released totals. Just so accurate really, no value what so ever.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Sorry to repeat myself but when do the round by round votes come out at b365 n tab??/

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

What are people’s thoughts on Gaff most WC votes? Historically he polls well and Shuey doesn’t.

Got a multi of him/Sloane/Pendles most team votes.

 

[stuziman]

Sorry to repeat myself but when do the round by round votes come out at b365 n tab??/

They should drop any day now. With the amount of work the books are putting into brownlow now, I expect there to be little or no value.

 

[stuziman]

What are people’s thoughts on Gaff most WC votes? Historically he polls well and Shuey doesn’t.

Got a multi of him/Sloane/Pendles most team votes.

You're not worried about how punching a kid last year will impact his votes in the umpires eyes?

 

[mitchzz]

What are people’s thoughts on Gaff most WC votes? Historically he polls well and Shuey doesn’t.

Got a multi of him/Sloane/Pendles most team votes.

I've got Gaff in one of my multis. Statistically his season has been amazing and he's been a good poller in pervious years. I also think his style of play attracts the votes (think the long gut runs in the fourth quarter to get open on the wing when everyone else is gassed). Also, excluding that one moment last year... it would appear he's a very fair player, doesn't talk back or anything like that.

In general though, I'll be sticking clear of the Eagles and won't have them in anymore of my multis. Shuey is my predicted leader but that could just be supporter bias knowing that he has much more effect on the game than say a Gaff. Yeo could easily come out on top too - though I worry he doesn't win enough of the ball. He definitely stands out though and is an absolute bull out there. Finally there's Sheed. I don't think he'll poll as much as others have him polling - he's pretty vanilla out there at times but has had some pretty good games this season and is an amazing field kick. So you never know...

TLDR - Gaff is probably worth a look but wouldn't be using him in too many bets.

 

[Sizzler79]

The more I look into the Brownlow Medal of 2019.
The more I like Josh Dunkley from the Western Bulldogs.
I think the current odds of $51 for the win and $13.50 for the place is way overs on TAB Fixed, he should be the same odds as Lachie Neale $5 a win $2 a place.
Josh Dunkley could easily poll in 14 matches and they are the following rounds:
Rounds 7,8,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,20,21,22,23
Now obviously all those won't be 3 vote matches but lets say he gets five 3 vote matches, five 2 vote matches and four 1 vote matches that is 29 votes and that's easily enough to win it this year. Regardless if he does poll in 14 matches with different votes he has to be on at least 25 if the umpires saw his influence which they should have.
He is also $9 to poll most Bulldogs votes.
I do think he is value and if he polls a vote in Round 3, well look out.
He will start his run from Round 7.
My Brownlow Top 3
1st J.Dunkley (WB)
Equal 2nd P.Dangerfield (Gee) & L.Neale (Bris).
Brownlow Medal is on Monday September 23rd Live on channel 7.

 

[Sizzler79]

To poll in most matches Dunkley is also $67 on TAB Fixed

 

[jack 23]

The more I look into the Brownlow Medal of 2019.
The more I like Josh Dunkley from the Western Bulldogs.
I think the current odds of $51 for the win and $13.50 for the place is way overs on TAB Fixed, he should be the same odds as Lachie Neale $5 a win $2 a place.
Josh Dunkley could easily poll in 14 matches and they are the following rounds:
Rounds 7,8,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,20,21,22,23
Now obviously all those won't be 3 vote matches but lets say he gets five 3 vote matches, five 2 vote matches and four 1 vote matches that is 29 votes and that's easily enough to win it this year. Regardless if he does poll in 14 matches with different votes he has to be on at least 25 if the umpires saw his influence which they should have.
He is also $9 to poll most Bulldogs votes.
I do think he is value and if he polls a vote in Round 3, well look out.
He will start his run from Round 7.
My Brownlow Top 3
1st J.Dunkley (WB)
Equal 2nd P.Dangerfield (Gee) & L.Neale (Bris).
Brownlow Medal is on Monday September 23rd Live on channel 7.

could make same argument for treloar or macrae

lot of hypotheticals there tho

 

[iluvparis]

Reeks of the Shane Tuck push a few years ago

 

[FrankGrimes]

The more I look into the Brownlow Medal of 2019.
The more I like Josh Dunkley from the Western Bulldogs.
I think the current odds of $51 for the win and $13.50 for the place is way overs on TAB Fixed, he should be the same odds as Lachie Neale $5 a win $2 a place.
Josh Dunkley could easily poll in 14 matches and they are the following rounds:
Rounds 7,8,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,20,21,22,23
Now obviously all those won't be 3 vote matches but lets say he gets five 3 vote matches, five 2 vote matches and four 1 vote matches that is 29 votes and that's easily enough to win it this year. Regardless if he does poll in 14 matches with different votes he has to be on at least 25 if the umpires saw his influence which they should have.
He is also $9 to poll most Bulldogs votes.
I do think he is value and if he polls a vote in Round 3, well look out.
He will start his run from Round 7.
My Brownlow Top 3
1st J.Dunkley (WB)
Equal 2nd P.Dangerfield (Gee) & L.Neale (Bris).
Brownlow Medal is on Monday September 23rd Live on channel 7.

I liked your thoughts but Round 10 only 29 in a loss, Round 11 they lost by 10 goals, Round 12 was a bye?, round 18 lost by 27 to St. Kilda and other rounds only got 28/29.. the unknown is how he votes with his fist real breakout year, odds seem about right.

 

[X_box_X]

I'm gonna wait until his BF odds increase to $200, and then I'll have a small wager for in play trading purposes only.

 

[Sizzler79]

I liked your thoughts but Round 10 only 29 in a loss, Round 11 they lost by 10 goals, Round 12 was a bye?, round 18 lost by 27 to St. Kilda and other rounds only got 28/29.. the unknown is how he votes with his fist real breakout year, odds seem about right.

Meant 13 not 12

 

[Sizzler79]

Reeks of the Shane Tuck push a few years ago

Few years ago? Was 2005 like 14 years ago.

 

[iluvparis]

Few years ago? Was 2005 like 14 years ago.

Nah was 2012

 

[Sizzler79]

Nah was 2012

Yes you are right, but i remember 2005 there was plenty Of money for him too.

 

[Sausage Legs]

The more I look into the Brownlow Medal of 2019.
The more I like Josh Dunkley from the Western Bulldogs.
I think the current odds of $51 for the win and $13.50 for the place is way overs on TAB Fixed, he should be the same odds as Lachie Neale $5 a win $2 a place.
Josh Dunkley could easily poll in 14 matches and they are the following rounds:
Rounds 7,8,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,20,21,22,23
Now obviously all those won't be 3 vote matches but lets say he gets five 3 vote matches, five 2 vote matches and four 1 vote matches that is 29 votes and that's easily enough to win it this year. Regardless if he does poll in 14 matches with different votes he has to be on at least 25 if the umpires saw his influence which they should have.
He is also $9 to poll most Bulldogs votes.
I do think he is value and if he polls a vote in Round 3, well look out.
He will start his run from Round 7.
My Brownlow Top 3
1st J.Dunkley (WB)
Equal 2nd P.Dangerfield (Gee) & L.Neale (Bris).
Brownlow Medal is on Monday September 23rd Live on channel 7.

If ya not takin the piss ya can get 8.50 to poll 22+ on beteasy

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

BF averages vs SB groups

Group	Player	Odds	Votes
	Tim Kelly	2.25​	21.5​
	Brodie Grundy	3.00​	20.75​
	Jack Macrae	5.00​	19.75​
Group A	Adam Treloar	4.50​	18.875​
	Zach Merrett	26.00​	17​
	Scott Pendlebury	14.00​	16.5​
	Josh Dunkley	10.00​	16​
	Stephen Coniglio	67.00​	14.5​

Group	Player	Odds	Votes
	Travis Boak	2.00​	17.25​
	Shaun Higgins	6.00​	17.25​
	Dayne Zorko	9.00​	15.25​
Group B	Max Gawn	5.00​	15​
	James Worpel	11.00​	13.75​
	Jeremy Cameron	15.00​	13​
	Ben Cunnington	8.00​	12.5​
	Andrew Gaff	8.00​	12.33​

Group	Player	Odds	Votes
	Luke Shuey	2.50​	16​
	Michael Walters	6.50​	14.25​
	Elliot Yeo	5.00​	13.75​
	Dom Sheed	9.00​	13.75​
Group C	Matt Crouch	11.00​	13​
	Josh Kelly	17.00​	12.66​
	Luke Parker	11.00​	11.75​
	Lachie Whitfield	4.00​	9.66​

Group	Player	Odds	Votes
	Brad Crouch	4.00​	14.33​
	Jack Billings	3.50​	13.75​
	Jarryd Lyons	5.50​	11.5​
Group D	Dion Prestia	5.50​	11.375​
	Ben Brown	11.00​	10.66​
	James Sicily	13.00​	9.33​
	Dylan Shiel	4.50​	9​
	Clayton Oliver	7.00​	7.75​

 

[Lewis#3]

The more I look into the Brownlow Medal of 2019.
The more I like Josh Dunkley from the Western Bulldogs.
I think the current odds of $51 for the win and $13.50 for the place is way overs on TAB Fixed, he should be the same odds as Lachie Neale $5 a win $2 a place.
Josh Dunkley could easily poll in 14 matches and they are the following rounds:
Rounds 7,8,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,20,21,22,23
Now obviously all those won't be 3 vote matches but lets say he gets five 3 vote matches, five 2 vote matches and four 1 vote matches that is 29 votes and that's easily enough to win it this year. Regardless if he does poll in 14 matches with different votes he has to be on at least 25 if the umpires saw his influence which they should have.
He is also $9 to poll most Bulldogs votes.
I do think he is value and if he polls a vote in Round 3, well look out.
He will start his run from Round 7.
My Brownlow Top 3
1st J.Dunkley (WB)
Equal 2nd P.Dangerfield (Gee) & L.Neale (Bris).
Brownlow Medal is on Monday September 23rd Live on channel 7.

Usually takes a year for someone to get noticed a bit but did have some huge games were he should clearly get the 3 votes. Plus I think it might be very hard for him to get votes in round 12 when the bulldogs had the bye.

 

[Sizzler79]

Usually takes a year for someone to get noticed a bit but did have some huge games were he should clearly get the 3 votes. Plus I think it might be very hard for him to get votes in round 12 when the bulldogs had the bye.

Like I said to another person i meant 13 not 12