AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal

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TheJanuaryMan

All Australian
Jul 29, 2009
940
726
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
ROUND 20

NM v HAW
3 S Higgins (NM)
2 J Worpel (Haw)
1 B Brown (NM)

ESS v PA
3 D Houston (PA)
2 R Gray (PA)
1 D Byrne-Jones (PA)

GWS v SYD
3 J Hopper (GWS)
2 I Heeney (Syd)
1 T Greene (GWS)

FREO v GEEL
3 M Walters (Freo)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 B Hill (Freo)

ADEL v ST K
3 M Crouch (Adel)
2 R Laird (Adel)
1 R Marshall (St K)

RICH v MELB
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 B Houli (Rich)
1 D Prestia (Rich)

COLL v GC
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 S Sidebottom (Coll)
1 B Grundy (Coll)

CARL v WC
3 L Shuey (WC)
2 S Walsh (Carl)
1 L Ryan (WC)

BRIS v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 M Robinson (Bris)
1 J Macrae (WB)

LEADERBOARD

27 N Fyfe (Freo)
25 M Bontempelli (WB)
22 T Kelly (Geel), B Grundy (Coll)
21 L Neale (Bris)
20 P Cripps (Carl), A Treloar (Coll)
 

Sausage Legs

Team Captain
Sep 17, 2014
461
348
AFL Club
West Coast
ROUND 20

NM v HAW
3 S Higgins (NM)
2 J Worpel (Haw)
1 B Brown (NM)

ESS v PA
3 D Houston (PA)
2 R Gray (PA)
1 D Byrne-Jones (PA)

GWS v SYD
3 J Hopper (GWS)
2 I Heeney (Syd)
1 T Greene (GWS)

FREO v GEEL
3 M Walters (Freo)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 B Hill (Freo)

ADEL v ST K
3 M Crouch (Adel)
2 R Laird (Adel)
1 R Marshall (St K)

RICH v MELB
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 B Houli (Rich)
1 D Prestia (Rich)

COLL v GC
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 S Sidebottom (Coll)
1 B Grundy (Coll)

CARL v WC
3 L Shuey (WC)
2 S Walsh (Carl)
1 L Ryan (WC)

BRIS v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 M Robinson (Bris)
1 J Macrae (WB)

LEADERBOARD

27 N Fyfe (Freo)
25 M Bontempelli (WB)
22 T Kelly (Geel), B Grundy (Coll)
21 L Neale (Bris)
20 P Cripps (Carl), A Treloar (Coll)
Thought Newman was bog in the blues eagles game from Yeo. And reckon Macrae gets at least 2 votes for his 45 touches. Others similarish
 

TheJanuaryMan

All Australian
Jul 29, 2009
940
726
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I'm always wary of the "number of touches = votes" theory after Matt Priddis failed to poll a vote in 2008 for 45 disposals v Hawthorn (although WC were beaten by 57 points, nowhere near yesterday's Bulldogs losing margin).
 

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
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950
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I have him a massive chance to lead at round 5 on possibly 9-10 votes. His dangers would be Neale, Billings, Dangerfield and Bont by my count.
If Treloar is leading by the end of round 5 he will win it. I don’t think he will be close tbh. I only have him on 6 votes after round 5. 7 at absolute most wont be enough
 
May 7, 2019
11
8
AFL Club
Essendon
Josh Kelly still leading my Giants count, have thrown him in a few mutlis (TAB has him at $9 currently). 50/50 to play this week, will definitely play another two games.

I'm big on Higgins currently at $1.65 as well.

Current Top 10 After 20 Rounds

26 - Fyfe
23 - Neale and T.Kelly
20 - Bont, Boak and Cripps
19 - Macrae
18 - Danger
17 - Grundy and Dusty
 

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demon_fanatic

Club Legend
May 8, 2006
2,019
433
bayswater
AFL Club
Melbourne
Josh Kelly still leading my Giants count, have thrown him in a few mutlis (TAB has him at $9 currently). 50/50 to play this week, will definitely play another two games.

I'm big on Higgins currently at $1.65 as well.

Current Top 10 After 20 Rounds

26 - Fyfe
23 - Neale and T.Kelly
20 - Bont, Boak and Cripps
19 - Macrae
18 - Danger
17 - Grundy and Dusty
God someone from tab must be monitoring went to multi it and Kelly 5.50 Higgins 1.60.also what stage do tab n 365 release the round by round votes, obviously some huge Chances at instant cash outs on players who are initially too high in odds like last year, was it the Monday after final round??
 

burge13

Team Captain
Jan 25, 2019
421
582
AFL Club
Adelaide
God someone from tab must be monitoring went to multi it and Kelly 5.50 Higgins 1.60.also what stage do tab n 365 release the round by round votes, obviously some huge Chances at instant cash outs on players who are initially too high in odds like last year, was it the Monday after final round??
Kelly is 7.00 and Higgins 1.75 at Sportsbet
 

adammania9

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 18, 2013
9,581
19,056
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
University
Treloar early season voting:

Round 1: 0-1 votes (wasteful against Geelong, but wracked it up heaps in a close loss)
Round 2: 2-3 votes (39 and a goal in a big win against Richmond. Only Pendlebury poses a threat for 3)
Round 3: no votes (all will be given to West Coast)
Round 4: 0-1 votes (Bont and Grundy dominated for 3 and 2, 1 vote to go to any of Phillips, Adams, Treloar or Macrae)
Round 5: 3 votes (lock it in, easily best in a big win against Brisbane)

I'd say 6-7 votes is very likely after 5 rounds. A slim chance for top spot but Neale and Bontempelli should have 8-9 at the minimum.

Round 6: no votes (Pendlebury will get 3, Grundy and Daniher get the others in my book, with Merrett a chance also)
Round 7: 2 votes (in a big win against Port, Pendles was BOG. Adz had 35 and a goal so will probably get 2, Moore or Sideass to get the 1)
Round 8: 0-1 votes (I'd say one vote tops in a close win against Carlton. Had a huge second half but Cripps and Grundy dominated all day)
Round 9: 1-2 votes (Big win over St Kilda. Sidebottom should poll 3 with the rest to be split by Grundy and Treloar who had another 38)
Round 10: 0-1 votes (despite another 38 in a close win against Sydney; Reid, Grundy and Pendles are safe to poll in that order I expect)

10-11 votes after round 10 is my call. Kelly, Neale, Fyfe and Cripps should be well ahead at this point. Not much value going here.

Treloar has been racking up a lot of ball this season, more than anybody else, but because of Adams' absence, he had been made to play more of an in-and-under role where his flashiness wasn't able to show. I wouldn't bank on him polling super well early when Pendlebury was comfortably our best performing player and Grundy was our most noticeable.
 
May 7, 2019
11
8
AFL Club
Essendon
God someone from tab must be monitoring went to multi it and Kelly 5.50 Higgins 1.60.also what stage do tab n 365 release the round by round votes, obviously some huge Chances at instant cash outs on players who are initially too high in odds like last year, was it the Monday after final round??
QLD TAB prices I should have mentioned.
 

NonPhixion

Club Legend
Mar 27, 2018
1,033
950
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Treloar early season voting:

Round 1: 0-1 votes (wasteful against Geelong, but wracked it up heaps in a close loss)
Round 2: 2-3 votes (39 and a goal in a big win against Richmond. Only Pendlebury poses a threat for 3)
Round 3: no votes (all will be given to West Coast)
Round 4: 0-1 votes (Bont and Grundy dominated for 3 and 2, 1 vote to go to any of Phillips, Adams, Treloar or Macrae)
Round 5: 3 votes (lock it in, easily best in a big win against Brisbane)

I'd say 6-7 votes is very likely after 5 rounds. A slim chance for top spot but Neale and Bontempelli should have 8-9 at the minimum.

Round 6: no votes (Pendlebury will get 3, Grundy and Daniher get the others in my book, with Merrett a chance also)
Round 7: 2 votes (in a big win against Port, Pendles was BOG. Adz had 35 and a goal so will probably get 2, Moore or Sideass to get the 1)
Round 8: 0-1 votes (I'd say one vote tops in a close win against Carlton. Had a huge second half but Cripps and Grundy dominated all day)
Round 9: 1-2 votes (Big win over St Kilda. Sidebottom should poll 3 with the rest to be split by Grundy and Treloar who had another 38)
Round 10: 0-1 votes (despite another 38 in a close win against Sydney; Reid, Grundy and Pendles are safe to poll in that order I expect)

10-11 votes after round 10 is my call. Kelly, Neale, Fyfe and Cripps should be well ahead at this point. Not much value going here.

Treloar has been racking up a lot of ball this season, more than anybody else, but because of Adams' absence, he had been made to play more of an in-and-under role where his flashiness wasn't able to show. I wouldn't bank on him polling super well early when Pendlebury was comfortably our best performing player and Grundy was our most noticeable.
Really good analysis here. I have a very similar vote breakdown.
 

benji21

Team Captain
Apr 2, 2016
556
289
AFL Club
Fremantle
Wouldn't be surprised to see Treloar sneak a few extras somewhere, whether its early or not who knows. But statistically he is having a bit of a better year than 2016 when he got 21 votes. A lot seem to have him mid teens. Players averaging that many disposals have a very good record a Brownlow. Think Rockliffs the only one to lead the disposal and get less than 20 votes in the last 10 or so.
 

gothedons

Team Captain
Oct 4, 2004
497
60
Darwin
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Essendon
Closest count I've had for years my actual count and weighted count have different leaders and the top 5 moves around a bit

25 -T.Kelly
24 - Bont/Neale
23 - Fyfe
21 - Cripps/Treloar
 

seppo_222

Debutant
Jan 10, 2017
50
142
AFL Club
West Coast
Leaderboard after RD20
1. Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale 22 votes
3. Tim Kelly, Adam Treloar, Dustin Martin 20 votes
6. Marcus Bontempelli 19 votes
7. Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett, Travis Boak, Patrick Dangerfield, Jack Macrae 17 votes
12. Brodie Grundy, Dom Sheed 16 votes
14. Shaun Higgins 15 votes

Shaun Higgins most votes North, good value
Lachie Neale leader after RD 6
 

akaufma

Draftee
Aug 9, 2019
2
0
AFL Club
North Melbourne
ROUND 2

RICH v COLL
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 B Grundy (Coll)
1 D Beams (Coll)

SYD v ADEL
3 R Sloane (Adel)
2 J Kennedy (Sydl)
1 R Atkins (Adel)

ESS v ST K
3 J Gresham (St K)
2 J Billings (St K)
1 M Hurley (Ess)

PA v CARL
3 T Boak (PA)
2 P Cripps (Carl)
1 S Lycett (PA)

GEEL v MELB
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 T Kelly (Geel)
1 L Dahlhaus (Geel)

WCE v GWS
3 L Shuey (WCE)
2 D Sheed (WCE)
1 L Whitfield (GWS)

NM v BRIS
3 L Neale (Bris)
2 B Cunnington (NM)
1 J Berry (Bris)

HAW v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 J Schache (WB)
1 J Gunston (Haw)

GC v FREO
3 J Harbrow (GC)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 D Swallow (GC)

LEADERBOARD
6 L Neale (Bris), M Bontempelli (WB)
5 A Treloar (Coll), N Fyfe (Freo), T Kelly (Geel)
4 T Boak (PA), P Dangerfield (Geel), D Sheed (WCE)

Bontempelli 3??

How sure are you in this? Only watched the highlights but bont didnt look that dominate and didn't have a heap of the footy compared to macrae/daniel + schache and gunston kicked a few.
 

TheJanuaryMan

All Australian
Jul 29, 2009
940
726
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Bontempelli 3??

How sure are you in this? Only watched the highlights but bont didnt look that dominate and didn't have a heap of the footy compared to macrae/daniel + schache and gunston kicked a few.
Long way back to Round 2.

I'm not sure - if I was, I would be one of the blokes in green out there that night :)

Bont was huge that night, don't just read off stats - a lot of people seem to think it is the Supercoach Medal and correlate the principle of stats = votes. They are probably the same people who backed Simon Atkins in the 90's and wonder why they did their dough.

If you want to use stats as a base, though, an interesting stat with Bontempelli. 2015 - 2018, he has had 21 matches where he has collected 26 or more disposals. In those 21 matches, he has polled Brownlow votes 16 times, and of those, 10 have been the top votes.

This season, he has had 26 or more touches on 13 occasions. 8 of these have been wins.
 
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