AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal

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TheJanuaryMan

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Thread starter #27
I've been doing my own counts for years now and last year was the first not to return big profits. Profits nonetheless but not as big as other years.

You simply cannot expect to make good coin from the Brownlow without doing your own counts in real time. No point trying to remember a round 6 game in round 19 when value sucked out of markets.

I recognise certain key, proven factors over many years that capture umpire attention and are rewarded in votes. Won't go indepth here as I know certain bookies tail this thread closely.

Can I stress - as I do every year - virtually disregard the Coaches Award votes. They are near meaningless in terms of value as coaches reward different factors (hence wky KPPs and taggers don't win Charlie). The lesson of 2014, when Robbie Gray won the Coaches Award but didnt even top Port"s votes should be warning enough there.

Go gently in season with Team Votes. Ive made the mistake of going too hard and been limited by 2 books as a result. Small, gradual goes are the way.

It takes time and patience but is well worth the rewards.
 
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jack 23

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#28
Treloar featuring again in the votes. put a small bet on him @ $34 because hes injury prone !

Alot of touches were easy handballs at end but still could easily get the 2 - 3 tonight as he stands out. Degoey beams grundy all good too
 

freo_leo29

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#29
Treloar featuring again in the votes. put a small bet on him @ $34 because hes injury prone !

Alot of touches were easy handballs at end but still could easily get the 2 - 3 tonight as he stands out. Degoey beams grundy all good too
If you keep putting bets on 3 different players each round, you're gonna end up with 70 bets on different players😂
 
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#31
Games so far that I feel strongly about (was at the game or watched majority of it)

Round 1 -


Carlton v Richmond:
Cotchin if >$1.60
Newman if >$21
Higgins if >$21

Collingwood v Geelong:
Danger if >$2

Melbourne v Port:
Rockliff if >$1.50

Adelaide v Hawthorn:
Jaeger if >$2
Sicily if >$10

Bulldogs v Sydney:
Bont if >$1.70

GWS v Essendon:
Coniglio if >$1.50

Freo v North:
Fyfe if >$1.70

Round 2 -


Richmond v Collingwood:
De Goey if >$3
Treloar if >$3
Beams if >$6
Pendlebury if >$6

St. Kilda v Essendon:
Got a feeling this is gonna be something random af. Billings I suppose but didn’t feel like 3 and I was at the game.

North v Brisbane:
Neale if > $1.40

Hawthorn v Bulldogs:
Bont if >$1.65
 

TheJanuaryMan

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Thread starter #33
ROUND 2

RICH v COLL
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 B Grundy (Coll)
1 D Beams (Coll)

SYD v ADEL
3 R Sloane (Adel)
2 J Kennedy (Sydl)
1 R Atkins (Adel)

ESS v ST K
3 J Gresham (St K)
2 J Billings (St K)
1 M Hurley (Ess)

PA v CARL
3 T Boak (PA)
2 P Cripps (Carl)
1 S Lycett (PA)

GEEL v MELB
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 T Kelly (Geel)
1 L Dahlhaus (Geel)

WCE v GWS
3 L Shuey (WCE)
2 D Sheed (WCE)
1 L Whitfield (GWS)

NM v BRIS
3 L Neale (Bris)
2 B Cunnington (NM)
1 J Berry (Bris)

HAW v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 J Schache (WB)
1 J Gunston (Haw)

GC v FREO
3 J Harbrow (GC)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 D Swallow (GC)

LEADERBOARD
6 L Neale (Bris), M Bontempelli (WB)
5 A Treloar (Coll), N Fyfe (Freo), T Kelly (Geel)
4 T Boak (PA), P Dangerfield (Geel), D Sheed (WCE)
 

fpcookie

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#35
ROUND 2

RICH v COLL
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 B Grundy (Coll)
1 D Beams (Coll)

SYD v ADEL
3 R Sloane (Adel)
2 J Kennedy (Sydl)
1 R Atkins (Adel)

ESS v ST K
3 J Gresham (St K)
2 J Billings (St K)
1 M Hurley (Ess)

PA v CARL
3 T Boak (PA)
2 P Cripps (Carl)
1 S Lycett (PA)

GEEL v MELB
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 T Kelly (Geel)
1 L Dahlhaus (Geel)

WCE v GWS
3 L Shuey (WCE)
2 D Sheed (WCE)
1 L Whitfield (GWS)

NM v BRIS
3 L Neale (Bris)
2 B Cunnington (NM)
1 J Berry (Bris)

HAW v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 J Schache (WB)
1 J Gunston (Haw)

GC v FREO
3 J Harbrow (GC)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 D Swallow (GC)

LEADERBOARD
6 L Neale (Bris), M Bontempelli (WB)
5 A Treloar (Coll), N Fyfe (Freo), T Kelly (Geel)
4 T Boak (PA), P Dangerfield (Geel), D Sheed (WCE)
Would be pretty ridiculous if Bont got 3 on the weekend. Libba, Daniel, Suckling, Schache and Macrae all comfortably better than him. Umps gonna ump though so who knows.
 

TheJanuaryMan

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Thread starter #36
I know melb got pumped by geelong, but Oliver deserved 2 votes in that match. he should poll
Oliver had 5 games in 2018 where he had 30 or more and didn't poll a vote, and one with 40 touches in a 2 point loss and didn't poll. He would have to turn a lot of overall history around to poll in this one.
 

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TheJanuaryMan

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Thread starter #37
Would be pretty ridiculous if Bont got 3 on the weekend. Libba, Daniel, Suckling, Schache and Macrae all comfortably better than him. Umps gonna ump though so who knows.
Dogs won 7 games last year, Bont polled in 4 of these. Take out one win (v Ess) where he had only 16 touches, and yes, the umps have proven their liking for him over the journey.
That said, in their 2018 win over Brisbane, he didn't poll a vote despite 4 goals and 24 possies, so can be inexact.
 

fpcookie

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#38
Dogs won 7 games last year, Bont polled in 4 of these. Take out one win (v Ess) where he had only 16 touches, and yes, the umps have proven their liking for him over the journey.
That said, in their 2018 win over Brisbane, he didn't poll a vote despite 4 goals and 24 possies, so can be inexact.
oh yep, the umps love him no question there.
 

jack 23

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#39
Oliver had 5 games in 2018 where he had 30 or more and didn't poll a vote, and one with 40 touches in a 2 point loss and didn't poll. He would have to turn a lot of overall history around to poll in this one.
understand your reasoning. He didnt poll as well as expected last year across the board, but as youd know many players have to go through one of those years before they are noticed enough to consistently poll votes as expected.

Oliver was everywhere in the last quarter, every stoppage and melb clearance. Cant imagine the umps forgetting that despite melb getting flogged. we shall see :)

many said cripps wouldnt poll in losses last year but if you have enough of an impact you can get 2-1 votes.
 

Red Dog Styles

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#40
understand your reasoning. He didnt poll as well as expected last year across the board, but as youd know many players have to go through one of those years before they are noticed enough to consistently poll votes as expected.

Oliver was everywhere in the last quarter, every stoppage and melb clearance. Cant imagine the umps forgetting that despite melb getting flogged. we shall see :)

many said cripps wouldnt poll in losses last year but if you have enough of an impact you can get 2-1 votes.
Yeah i think Oliver definitely polls, similar to Cripps like you said last year. Unsure that Cripps has had as big a game as that in a losing game

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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#42
Do you guys watch all the games? Surely you have to make educated guesses on a lot from reading the match reports and AFLCA votes?

Wondering if you'd be willing to asterix* the games you are highly confident about, or alternatively didnt watch etc.

Would help the average punter when we go back over these at brownlow time and put 3 votes game bets on etc.
The ******* gaul of people.
 

jack 23

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#46
Danger new brownlow favourite

Tim Kelly down to $19 at some agencies in from $101. T Kelly has more than likely polled brownlow votes in 5 of his last 6 matches going back to last year.
 

jack 23

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#47
3 danger
2 sloane
1 blicavs / stewart / kelly

Crouch brothers look good on the stats sheet but I hardly notice their impact? assume its the same for umpires as they never poll as well as their stats would suggest
 

Sausage Legs

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#48
3 danger
2 sloane
1 blicavs / stewart / kelly

Crouch brothers look good on the stats sheet but I hardly notice their impact? assume its the same for umpires as they never poll as well as their stats would suggest
I went Danger, B Crouch, Tom Lynch or Menegola. Just thought cats had even spread after danger.
 
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