AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

[jack 23]

Last night
3. B crouch
2. Martin
1. Sloan / Jenkins / m crouch / I think Stack could've got a vote if tigers won

My opinion only

 

[ronpingwins]

Last night
3. B crouch
2. Martin
1. Sloan / Jenkins / m crouch / I think Stack could've got a vote if tigers won

My opinion only

I went
3 O'Brien
2 Brouch
1 Sloane/Martin.

I guess a relatively no-name ruckman will probably struggle to poll 3, thought he dominated though.
I have B Crouch on 15 votes now, having a massive year. Was still $2.50 to lead Adelaide at TAB before this game, will probably drop a lot after this.

 

[jack 23]

I went
3 O'Brien
2 Brouch
1 Sloane/Martin.

I guess a relatively no-name ruckman will probably struggle to poll 3, thought he dominated though.
I have B Crouch on 15 votes now, having a massive year. Was still $2.50 to lead Adelaide at TAB before this game, will probably drop a lot after this.

I think 2 for Martin might be generous given hes suspended. Umps will no doubt have the conversation that he has been suspended and would rather allocate votes to someone else, so they will be more likely to go to another player that played equally or almost as well. Pre-suspension I wouldve confidently said he will get votes this game, but now wouldnt be surprised if doesnt poll at all. we shall see !

B crouch bit a dark horse. cant believe I got him $151 outright yesterday. IMO should be around $30's outright.

Definitely top 10 threat now.

 

[jack 23]

heppell, merrett and worpel for me last night in any order.

One of those games you could throw a blanket over 8 players that could poll.

Scully caught my eye too with run through middle.

will probably avoid betting on this match.

 

[iluvparis]

Doesn't B Crouch have of a history for getting a boatload of touches but no love from the umpires.

 

[jack 23]

Doesn't B Crouch have of a history for getting a boatload of touches but no love from the umpires.

yup

whilst Sloane gets * all touches (20) and gets the 3 votes.

Comes down to umps not having the broadcast commentary bias and stats in front of them like we do. Its all about who made the most significant impact on the game in their minds when they leave the field.

I remember Brownlow night last year you see defenders with 12 touches getting votes, guys that no one wouldve picked to poll and paying $20-1.

Ive noticed goal scorers seem to poll better. mids that get 25 touches and kick 1 or 2 goals poll better than 35 touches no goals. I guess its because the goal scorer stats umps have access to after the game so thats why. (goal umpires)

Makes me wonder if umps ever open the AFL app on their phones in the changerooms just to have a look... ? given the technology age we are in, and the scrutiny they get when they get it wrong (cooney and judd 2nd time wins brownlow). Are there any strict rules around not doing this? I understand the tradition is not to though....

Also would be worth checking the umpires of each game and see if theres a trend for certain umpries to give votes for ruckman, mids or backs etc. I cbf going to that level of detail but would be cool if someone did

 

[iluvparis]

I think it is just likely to be more down to the fact he was one of the least dangerous 30 a game types in AFL history

 

[jack 23]

freo v port

walters
fyfe
boak

Probably walters 3. Probably fyfe 2. Probably Boak 1.

 

[HTPunter]

Marley Williams got 3 v Saints last year for 14 disposals, 0 tackles, didn't poll coaches votes despite 3 defensive players polling (Macmillan, Tarrant, Jacobs). He won his position on the day but I didn't think he was a standout. So I guess it'd be interesting to view the umpires in that game and see if one may prefer defensive efforts, could be worth it to hit a 50-1 BOG

 

[Damon_3388]

Doesn't B Crouch have of a history for getting a boatload of touches but no love from the umpires.

I think it is just likely to be more down to the fact he was one of the least dangerous 30 a game types in AFL history

Both Crouch brothers have a history of getting a boatload of touches that outweigh their actual impact on the game. For example, Matt Crouch got 35 on Thursday, but wouldn't have even been among the Crows' best on the night.

Considering the volume of uncontested ball the brothers get too, their disposal efficiency and actual hurt factor is very low.

 

[Damon_3388]

BTW, I just put $20 on Michael Walters @ $126.00 to win the medal. He's my smokey to bring it home.

 

[onthehill24]

Hepp

heppell, merrett and worpel for me last night in any order.

One of those games you could throw a blanket over 8 players that could poll.

Scully caught my eye too with run through middle.

will probably avoid betting on this match.

heppell ??
Uncontested out the back possies
Little dinky kicks
No votes from me

 

[jack 23]

BTW, I just put $20 on Michael Walters @ $126.00 to win the medal. He's my smokey to bring it home.

dont get caught up in the hype.

he wont outpoll fyfe

 

[jack 23]

Hepp

heppell ??
Uncontested out the back possies
Little dinky kicks
No votes from me

I dont rate him myself but he polled well last year.

 

[Damon_3388]

dont get caught up in the hype.

he wont outpoll fyfe

I'm one of the people creating the hype. I'm probably his biggest non-Freo fan here.

Worth a throw for the potential payoff. Can afford to lose $20 if it doesn't come off.

 

[Damon_3388]

Noticed that Josh Kelly is in the $40 range. Leads the league in score involvements per game (from the midfield), 4th in Champion Data Player Ranking Score average.

Is it a case of (two) too many games missed, and teammates (Coniglio, Whitfield, possibly Taranto) who might pinch votes? He polled 21 votes in 21 H&A games in 2017, and he's arguably having a better season and is more "known" now. Looks like a juicy price.

 

[jack 23]

Noticed that Josh Kelly is in the $40 range. Leads the league in score involvements per game (from the midfield), 4th in Champion Data Player Ranking Score average.

Is it a case of (two) too many games missed, and teammates (Coniglio, Whitfield, possibly Taranto) who might pinch votes? He polled 21 votes in 21 H&A games in 2017, and he's arguably having a better season and is more "known" now. Looks like a juicy price.

yea he worries me coz Ive got no coin on him.

he polls really well.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

yea he worries me coz Ive got no coin on him.

he polls really well.

I have a lot of votes being spread around the Giants - potential risk there for any one player to win, although Team Votes could be worth a look.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 12

RICH v GEEL
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 M Duncan (Geel)
1 G Ablett (Geel)

CARL v BRIS
3 P Cripps (Carl)
2 S Walsh (Carl)
1 E Curnow (Carl)

GC v NM
3 B Cunnington (NM)
2 J Ziebell (NM)
1 W Brodie (GC)

ADEL v GWS
3 M Crouch (Adel)
2 B Crouch (Adel)
1 T Taranto (GWS)

SYD v WC
3 L Franklin (Syd)
2 T Papley (Syd)
1 J Lloyd (Syd)

COLL v MELB
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 S Sidebottom (Coll)
1 M Gawn (Melb)


LEADERBOARD
19 N Fyfe (Freo)
18 T Kelly (Geel)
17 P Cripps (Carl)
16 B Grundy (Coll), L Neale (Bris)
15 T Boak (PA)
14 P Dangerfield (Geel),A Treloar (Coll)
13 B Cunnington (NM)

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 13

ADEL v RICH
3 R O'Brien (Adel)
2 B Crouch (Adel)
1 D Martin (Rich)

ESS v HAW
3 Z Merrett (Ess)
2 D Heppell (Ess)
1 R Henderson (Haw)

GC v ST K
3 J Billings (St K)
2 S Ross (St K)
1 A Miles (GC)

FREO v PA
3 M Walters (Freo)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 T Boak (PA)

CARL v WB
3 J Dunkley (WB)
2 C Curnow (Carl)
1 M Bontempelli (WB)

NM v GWS
3 J Kelly (GWS)
2 T Taranto (GWS)
1 S Coniglio (GWS)

LEADERBOARD

21 N Fyfe (Freo)
18 T Kelly (Geel)
17 P Cripps (Carl)
16 B Grundy (Coll), L Neale (Bris), T Boak (PA)
14 P Dangerfield (Geel), M Bontempelli (WB), A Treloar (Coll)

 

[jack 23]

this week will be close to make or break for me with Neale. might cashout half my bet on him.

Got to remember some teams have played an extra game than others so dont over read Cripps or Boaks positions yet.

 

[jack 23]

If cunnington gets a week for that De Boar tackle I will be livid.

TAB have taken down the market for NM most votes since last wednesday so my money is stuck in there and I havent been allowed to cash out before the round which was my intention.

Are they allowed to hide markets as long as they want even though they were 'cash out' markets?

 

[iluvparis]

Most votes ignores suspensions doesn't it?

 

[NonPhixion]

Papley is $101 to win the count for Sydney at TAB. compared to $11 at Beteasy.

Not sure which is wrong, but most counts have Papley on 4 votes. Sydneys count is a very even 6 horse race and 2-3 BOGs from any of them could see them win it. Worth sprinkling a few dollars on it @ $101. some for cashout but some to ride it out if I can cash out my original stake.

Anyone else agree ?

Not trying to say he will win it, but theres value there.

great shout. Hes down to $11 now...

 

[jack 23]

Most votes ignores suspensions doesn't it?

Hopefully. will still hurt his odds a little.