AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

[NonPhixion]

There's been a couple of people mention Most Team Multis. I'm assuming this is through TAB?

took a multi of Treloar, Billings, B.Crouch, Swallow & Bont last week @15

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 20

NM v HAW
3 S Higgins (NM)
2 J Worpel (Haw)
1 B Brown (NM)

ESS v PA
3 D Houston (PA)
2 R Gray (PA)
1 D Byrne-Jones (PA)

GWS v SYD
3 J Hopper (GWS)
2 I Heeney (Syd)
1 T Greene (GWS)

FREO v GEEL
3 M Walters (Freo)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 B Hill (Freo)

ADEL v ST K
3 M Crouch (Adel)
2 R Laird (Adel)
1 R Marshall (St K)

RICH v MELB
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 B Houli (Rich)
1 D Prestia (Rich)

COLL v GC
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 S Sidebottom (Coll)
1 B Grundy (Coll)

CARL v WC
3 L Shuey (WC)
2 S Walsh (Carl)
1 L Ryan (WC)

BRIS v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 M Robinson (Bris)
1 J Macrae (WB)

LEADERBOARD

27 N Fyfe (Freo)
25 M Bontempelli (WB)
22 T Kelly (Geel), B Grundy (Coll)
21 L Neale (Bris)
20 P Cripps (Carl), A Treloar (Coll)

 

[Sausage Legs]

ROUND 20

NM v HAW
3 S Higgins (NM)
2 J Worpel (Haw)
1 B Brown (NM)

ESS v PA
3 D Houston (PA)
2 R Gray (PA)
1 D Byrne-Jones (PA)

GWS v SYD
3 J Hopper (GWS)
2 I Heeney (Syd)
1 T Greene (GWS)

FREO v GEEL
3 M Walters (Freo)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 B Hill (Freo)

ADEL v ST K
3 M Crouch (Adel)
2 R Laird (Adel)
1 R Marshall (St K)

RICH v MELB
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 B Houli (Rich)
1 D Prestia (Rich)

COLL v GC
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 S Sidebottom (Coll)
1 B Grundy (Coll)

CARL v WC
3 L Shuey (WC)
2 S Walsh (Carl)
1 L Ryan (WC)

BRIS v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 M Robinson (Bris)
1 J Macrae (WB)

LEADERBOARD

27 N Fyfe (Freo)
25 M Bontempelli (WB)
22 T Kelly (Geel), B Grundy (Coll)
21 L Neale (Bris)
20 P Cripps (Carl), A Treloar (Coll)

Thought Newman was bog in the blues eagles game from Yeo. And reckon Macrae gets at least 2 votes for his 45 touches. Others similarish

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I'm always wary of the "number of touches = votes" theory after Matt Priddis failed to poll a vote in 2008 for 45 disposals v Hawthorn (although WC were beaten by 57 points, nowhere near yesterday's Bulldogs losing margin).

 

[Sausage Legs]

I'm always wary of the "number of touches = votes" theory after Matt Priddis failed to poll a vote in 2008 for 45 disposals v Hawthorn (although WC were beaten by 57 points, nowhere near yesterday's Bulldogs losing margin).

You mean brownlow medallist Matt priddis?

 

[NonPhixion]

Josh Kelly out to $7 TAB. Surely value if he’s named this week. Have him right up there in the Giants count

 

[burge13]

Thoughts on Treloar leading at R5 and R10 both at $51s? Had some very big games in mostly wins...

 

[hunteyes]

Thoughts on Treloar leading at R5 and R10 both at $51s? Had some very big games in mostly wins...

I have him a massive chance to lead at round 5 on possibly 9-10 votes. His dangers would be Neale, Billings, Dangerfield and Bont by my count.

 

[hunteyes]

Treloar already in to $21 for leader after round 5

 

[NonPhixion]

I have him a massive chance to lead at round 5 on possibly 9-10 votes. His dangers would be Neale, Billings, Dangerfield and Bont by my count.

If Treloar is leading by the end of round 5 he will win it. I don’t think he will be close tbh. I only have him on 6 votes after round 5. 7 at absolute most wont be enough

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Josh Kelly still leading my Giants count, have thrown him in a few mutlis (TAB has him at $9 currently). 50/50 to play this week, will definitely play another two games.

I'm big on Higgins currently at $1.65 as well.

Current Top 10 After 20 Rounds

26 - Fyfe
23 - Neale and T.Kelly
20 - Bont, Boak and Cripps
19 - Macrae
18 - Danger
17 - Grundy and Dusty

 

[demon_fanatic]

Josh Kelly still leading my Giants count, have thrown him in a few mutlis (TAB has him at $9 currently). 50/50 to play this week, will definitely play another two games.

I'm big on Higgins currently at $1.65 as well.

Current Top 10 After 20 Rounds

26 - Fyfe
23 - Neale and T.Kelly
20 - Bont, Boak and Cripps
19 - Macrae
18 - Danger
17 - Grundy and Dusty

God someone from tab must be monitoring went to multi it and Kelly 5.50 Higgins 1.60.also what stage do tab n 365 release the round by round votes, obviously some huge Chances at instant cash outs on players who are initially too high in odds like last year, was it the Monday after final round??

 

[burge13]

God someone from tab must be monitoring went to multi it and Kelly 5.50 Higgins 1.60.also what stage do tab n 365 release the round by round votes, obviously some huge Chances at instant cash outs on players who are initially too high in odds like last year, was it the Monday after final round??

Kelly is 7.00 and Higgins 1.75 at Sportsbet

 

[adammania9]

Treloar early season voting:

Round 1: 0-1 votes (wasteful against Geelong, but wracked it up heaps in a close loss)
Round 2: 2-3 votes (39 and a goal in a big win against Richmond. Only Pendlebury poses a threat for 3)
Round 3: no votes (all will be given to West Coast)
Round 4: 0-1 votes (Bont and Grundy dominated for 3 and 2, 1 vote to go to any of Phillips, Adams, Treloar or Macrae)
Round 5: 3 votes (lock it in, easily best in a big win against Brisbane)

I'd say 6-7 votes is very likely after 5 rounds. A slim chance for top spot but Neale and Bontempelli should have 8-9 at the minimum.

Round 6: no votes (Pendlebury will get 3, Grundy and Daniher get the others in my book, with Merrett a chance also)
Round 7: 2 votes (in a big win against Port, Pendles was BOG. Adz had 35 and a goal so will probably get 2, Moore or Sideass to get the 1)
Round 8: 0-1 votes (I'd say one vote tops in a close win against Carlton. Had a huge second half but Cripps and Grundy dominated all day)
Round 9: 1-2 votes (Big win over St Kilda. Sidebottom should poll 3 with the rest to be split by Grundy and Treloar who had another 38)
Round 10: 0-1 votes (despite another 38 in a close win against Sydney; Reid, Grundy and Pendles are safe to poll in that order I expect)

10-11 votes after round 10 is my call. Kelly, Neale, Fyfe and Cripps should be well ahead at this point. Not much value going here.

Treloar has been racking up a lot of ball this season, more than anybody else, but because of Adams' absence, he had been made to play more of an in-and-under role where his flashiness wasn't able to show. I wouldn't bank on him polling super well early when Pendlebury was comfortably our best performing player and Grundy was our most noticeable.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

God someone from tab must be monitoring went to multi it and Kelly 5.50 Higgins 1.60.also what stage do tab n 365 release the round by round votes, obviously some huge Chances at instant cash outs on players who are initially too high in odds like last year, was it the Monday after final round??

QLD TAB prices I should have mentioned.

 

[NonPhixion]

Treloar early season voting:

Round 1: 0-1 votes (wasteful against Geelong, but wracked it up heaps in a close loss)
Round 2: 2-3 votes (39 and a goal in a big win against Richmond. Only Pendlebury poses a threat for 3)
Round 3: no votes (all will be given to West Coast)
Round 4: 0-1 votes (Bont and Grundy dominated for 3 and 2, 1 vote to go to any of Phillips, Adams, Treloar or Macrae)
Round 5: 3 votes (lock it in, easily best in a big win against Brisbane)

I'd say 6-7 votes is very likely after 5 rounds. A slim chance for top spot but Neale and Bontempelli should have 8-9 at the minimum.

Round 6: no votes (Pendlebury will get 3, Grundy and Daniher get the others in my book, with Merrett a chance also)
Round 7: 2 votes (in a big win against Port, Pendles was BOG. Adz had 35 and a goal so will probably get 2, Moore or Sideass to get the 1)
Round 8: 0-1 votes (I'd say one vote tops in a close win against Carlton. Had a huge second half but Cripps and Grundy dominated all day)
Round 9: 1-2 votes (Big win over St Kilda. Sidebottom should poll 3 with the rest to be split by Grundy and Treloar who had another 38)
Round 10: 0-1 votes (despite another 38 in a close win against Sydney; Reid, Grundy and Pendles are safe to poll in that order I expect)

10-11 votes after round 10 is my call. Kelly, Neale, Fyfe and Cripps should be well ahead at this point. Not much value going here.

Treloar has been racking up a lot of ball this season, more than anybody else, but because of Adams' absence, he had been made to play more of an in-and-under role where his flashiness wasn't able to show. I wouldn't bank on him polling super well early when Pendlebury was comfortably our best performing player and Grundy was our most noticeable.

Really good analysis here. I have a very similar vote breakdown.

 

[benji21]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Treloar sneak a few extras somewhere, whether its early or not who knows. But statistically he is having a bit of a better year than 2016 when he got 21 votes. A lot seem to have him mid teens. Players averaging that many disposals have a very good record a Brownlow. Think Rockliffs the only one to lead the disposal and get less than 20 votes in the last 10 or so.

 

[gothedons]

Closest count I've had for years my actual count and weighted count have different leaders and the top 5 moves around a bit

25 -T.Kelly
24 - Bont/Neale
23 - Fyfe
21 - Cripps/Treloar

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I have Treloar on 8 at Round 5:

Rnd 1: 2
Rnd 2: 3
Rnd 3 and 4: 0
Rnd 5: 3

 

[Browney2006]

Become a nightmare to bet on

Nightmare = value

Much better than a $1.50 shot going in on Brownlow night

 

[Sausage Legs]

Reckon rocky after round 5 a smoky at 26s. Think cripps will take it tho. Like Neale on the round 6 one.

 

[seppo_222]

Leaderboard after RD20
1. Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale 22 votes
3. Tim Kelly, Adam Treloar, Dustin Martin 20 votes
6. Marcus Bontempelli 19 votes
7. Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett, Travis Boak, Patrick Dangerfield, Jack Macrae 17 votes
12. Brodie Grundy, Dom Sheed 16 votes
14. Shaun Higgins 15 votes

Shaun Higgins most votes North, good value
Lachie Neale leader after RD 6

 

[mitchzz]

Damn. No Josh Kelly tomorrow

 

[akaufma]

ROUND 2

RICH v COLL
3 A Treloar (Coll)
2 B Grundy (Coll)
1 D Beams (Coll)

SYD v ADEL
3 R Sloane (Adel)
2 J Kennedy (Sydl)
1 R Atkins (Adel)

ESS v ST K
3 J Gresham (St K)
2 J Billings (St K)
1 M Hurley (Ess)

PA v CARL
3 T Boak (PA)
2 P Cripps (Carl)
1 S Lycett (PA)

GEEL v MELB
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 T Kelly (Geel)
1 L Dahlhaus (Geel)

WCE v GWS
3 L Shuey (WCE)
2 D Sheed (WCE)
1 L Whitfield (GWS)

NM v BRIS
3 L Neale (Bris)
2 B Cunnington (NM)
1 J Berry (Bris)

HAW v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 J Schache (WB)
1 J Gunston (Haw)

GC v FREO
3 J Harbrow (GC)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 D Swallow (GC)

LEADERBOARD
6 L Neale (Bris), M Bontempelli (WB)
5 A Treloar (Coll), N Fyfe (Freo), T Kelly (Geel)
4 T Boak (PA), P Dangerfield (Geel), D Sheed (WCE)

Bontempelli 3??

How sure are you in this? Only watched the highlights but bont didnt look that dominate and didn't have a heap of the footy compared to macrae/daniel + schache and gunston kicked a few.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Bontempelli 3??

How sure are you in this? Only watched the highlights but bont didnt look that dominate and didn't have a heap of the footy compared to macrae/daniel + schache and gunston kicked a few.

Long way back to Round 2.

I'm not sure - if I was, I would be one of the blokes in green out there that night

Bont was huge that night, don't just read off stats - a lot of people seem to think it is the Supercoach Medal and correlate the principle of stats = votes. They are probably the same people who backed Simon Atkins in the 90's and wonder why they did their dough.

If you want to use stats as a base, though, an interesting stat with Bontempelli. 2015 - 2018, he has had 21 matches where he has collected 26 or more disposals. In those 21 matches, he has polled Brownlow votes 16 times, and of those, 10 have been the top votes.

This season, he has had 26 or more touches on 13 occasions. 8 of these have been wins.