List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[SeanM]

I usually rate Twomey but he is all over the shop atm. A few weeks ago he said we were keen on Green, the next week said we were into Kemp, then said we are giving him nothing by way of info. Now he produces three new names altogether. I think he's just trying to throw as many names out there as possible because he genuinely has no idea where we're at.

FWIW I continue to hear the same names pop up from a reliable source, in Green, Kemp and Flanders, with increasing interest in Flanders, probably because out of the three he has the least strings attached. Geez I hope he's wrong about Flanders though.

I assume we pick from whoever is left from Young, Flanders, Serong and Kemp. So we have to be open minded about them all in case something unexpected happens with the picks ahead of us.

I am guessing Young will be selected by Melbourne. Then we will weigh up Kemp's injury prospects and whether he transitions to midfield. Then look at whether Serong will end up potentially playing too similar a role to Gulden and Campbell. And then whether Flanders could offer something different as an explosive forward/mid.

I can't see us taking Ash because we already have a few developing players in that position. I don't think we would take a ruckman this early. Stephens looks good as a winger but not really been linked with us.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I assume we pick from whoever is left from Young, Flanders, Serong and Kemp. So we have to be open minded about them all in case something unexpected happens.

I’d put Jackson in there too.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I think we should go Kemp. It doesn’t matter what the player does year 1. It matters years 3-10. Or more.
I sense a Dusty/Hodge thing about him.

 

[caesar88]

I assume we pick from whoever is left from Young, Flanders, Serong and Kemp. So we have to be open minded about them all in case something unexpected happens with the picks ahead of us.

I am guessing Young will be selected by Melbourne. Then we will weigh up Kemp's injury prospects and whether he transitions to midfield. Then look at whether Serong will end up playing a similar role to Gulden and Campbell. And then whether Flanders could offer something different as an explosive forward/mid.

I will just be kinda irked if we use our first top five pick in a decade on a kid who could be replicated with a pick in the 40s.

 

[Punts]

No to Flanders or serong but that’s my opinion

Young

 

[Dan87]

ATM I'm OK to go for the little bull that wants to be a swans champ called Dong.

Or Luke Jackson or Dylan Stephens

Maybe go 25 + future first for the pick that gets Gould if we like him and think he's off the burgers or maybe Serong slides and it's a possibility

Young is off the table I think

 

[TheMase]

Stephens looks good as a winger but not really been linked with us.

Pretty sure Stephens was one of the kids that was impressed with Longmire, so we’ve certainly done our due diligence there at the very least.

Supposedly can also play inside. I like him.

 

[SGBeach]

A True Hypothetical..
Current 2019 - p5, 25, 32, 44
Current 2020 - 1st, 2nd, 2 x 3rd

Trade p5 for GWS p6 + p40 + future 1st (GWS want a pick before Green)
= 2019 - p6, 25, 32, 40, 44
2020 - 2 x 1st, 2nd, 2 x 3rd

Trade p6 + 44 for Freos p10 + p22 (Freo want 2 picks before Henry and p6 guarantees that plus is better than p10. Freo gets Henry NGA)
= 2019 - p10, 22, 25, 32, 40

Trade p32 + 40 for p20 (melb/Suns - p8 for p15,20.. Melbourne want 4 picks - 3, 15, 32, 40.. Suns move up the order 3 x top 10 picks)

= 2019 - p10, 20, 22, 25 (p5 goes to p10. p32, 44 goes to p20, 22)
2020 - 2 x 1st, 2nd, 2 x 3rd

All these trades are a chance.

At p10 we may get Serong, Kemp, Robertson, Jackson.. All these names have been thrown about on here to be taken at p5. Picks 20, 22, 25 are damm good picks in this draft

2020 - Swans finish 10th, GWS finish top 4
Trade Paps + a first round for p2 or 3 (Paps is happy to go to North)
Trade other first round for a very good (tested at afl level - 50 games) 22yo to fill a hole on our list
Trade Daniher as a free agent
Draft a gun at p2 or 3
DraftGulden & Campbell with remaining points (and maybe some from 2021 if needed)

Daniher, Very Good 22yo, Gun at p2 or 3, Gulden and Campbell

9 x (likely) good to great players in 2 years.

That leaves the Swans at round one 2021 with 28 - 30 players good enough for senior footy 26 years and under. Plus Rampe, Parker, Cunningham, Lloyd, Reid, Naismith
This list could play a lot of footy together.. Rebuild complete.

 

[SGBeach]

Can anyone make sense of that? Too controversial?? Too complex???
If nothing else, its an example of just how many scenarios may play out

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Can anyone make sense of that? Too controversial?? Too complex???
If nothing else, its an example of just how many scenarios may play out

Way too complex- not every trade will go our favour

 

[caesar88]

A True Hypothetical..
Current 2019 - p5, 25, 32, 44
Current 2020 - 1st, 2nd, 2 x 3rd

Trade p5 for GWS p6 + p40 + future 1st (GWS want a pick before Green)
= 2019 - p6, 25, 32, 40, 44
2020 - 2 x 1st, 2nd, 2 x 3rd

Trade p6 for Freos p10 + p22 (Freo want 2 picks before Henry and p6 guarantees that plus is better than p10. P18 was always going on Henry NGA)
= 2019 - p10, 22, 25, 32, 40, 44

Trade p32 + 40 for p20 (melb/Suns - p8 for p15,20.. Melbourne want 4 picks - 3, 15, 32, 40.. Suns move up the order 3 x top 10 picks)
= 2019 - p10, 20, 22, 25, 44

trade p44 for Suns future 4th (Why not??, or anyones future pick)
= 2019 - p10, 20, 22, 25 (p5 goes to p10. p32, 44 goes to p20, 22)
2020 - 2 x 1st, 2nd, 2 x 3rd, 4th

All these trades are a chance.

At p10 we may get Serong, Kemp, Robertson, Jackson.. All these names have been thrown about on here to be taken at p5. Picks 20, 22, 25 are damm good picks in this draft

2020 - Swans finish 10th, GWS finish top 4
Trade Paps + a first round for p2 or 3 (Paps is happy to go to North)
Trade other first round for a very good (tested at afl level - 50 games) 22yo to fill a hole on our list
Trade Daniher as a free agent
Draft a gun at p2 or 3
DraftGulden & Campbell with remaining points (and maybe some from 2021 if needed)

Daniher, Very Good 22yo, Gun at p2 or 3, Gulden and Campbell

9 x (likely) good to great players in 2 years.

That leaves the Swans at round one 2021 with 28 - 30 players good enough for senior footy 26 years and under. Plus Rampe, Parker, Cunningham, Lloyd, Reid, Naismith
This list could play a lot of footy together.. Rebuild complete.

That's all good and well SG, but it involves a lot of reading into the future. That a trade target we want is available in next year or 2021's trade period. That Gulden and Campbell will continue to impress and be the future stars we think they are at this point. That we get Daniher. And that any other top draft prospects that we may get in the next few years will be better than the ones there for us now.

I would much rather deal with what we know, which are the cards we've been dealt in this year's draft. We are lucky to have pick five in a year where, IMRO, the top five or six are incredibly talented. It's no superdraft like last year but it's definitely on par with other solid draft crops. I'd rather us take this chance we have now to land a very talented kid and then deal with whatever lays down the road when we get to it.

 

[Olian]

That's all good and well SG, but it involves a lot of reading into the future. That a trade target we want is available in next year or 2021's trade period. That Gulden and Campbell will continue to impress and be the future stars we think they are at this point. That we get Daniher. And that any other top draft prospects that we may get in the next few years will be better than the ones there for us now.

I would much rather deal with what we know, which are the cards we've been dealt in this year's draft. We are lucky to have pick five in a year where, IMRO, the top five or six are incredibly talented. It's no superdraft like last year but it's definitely on par with other solid draft crops. I'd rather us take this chance we have now to land a very talented kid and then deal with whatever lays down the road when we get to it.

It’s the hypothetical thread for a reason.

 

[SGBeach]

Way too complex- not every trade will go our favour

Yep.. not gonna happen, but every trade is in both clubs favour.. Live trading of picks may very well go to another level this year

 

[RobbieK]

Can anyone make sense of that? Too controversial?? Too complex???
If nothing else, its an example of just how many scenarios may play out

While it is way too complex, the biggest issue is that the premise for the very first trade, GWS moving from pick 6 to pick 5 in order to beat a bid on Green, is almost certainly not going to achieve that...

 

[caesar88]

It’s the hypothetical thread for a reason.

Yep. Wasn't having a go at SG at all.

 

[SGBeach]

That's all good and well SG, but it involves a lot of reading into the future. That a trade target we want is available in next year or 2021's trade period. That Gulden and Campbell will continue to impress and be the future stars we think they are at this point. That we get Daniher. And that any other top draft prospects that we may get in the next few years will be better than the ones there for us now.

I would much rather deal with what we know, which are the cards we've been dealt in this year's draft. We are lucky to have pick five in a year where, IMRO, the top five or six are incredibly talented. It's no superdraft like last year but it's definitely on par with other solid draft crops. I'd rather us take this chance we have now to land a very talented kid and then deal with whatever lays down the road when we get to it.

Yep agree.
But its all gambling / guessing / predicting / fortune telling
Having two (likely to be) very good academy kids opens a lot of opportunities
Having 2 x 1st round picks creates a lot of opportunity
Having Paps wanting out (maybe) and for a good pick creates a lot of opportunities
Having a gun (maybe fit) full forward wanting in creates opportunities.

lotsa maybes, likelys, fortune telling

Flexibility is key for Dalrymple, Beatson and the crew

 

[SGBeach]

While it is way too complex, the biggest issue is that the premise for the very first trade, GWS moving from pick 6 to pick 5 in order to beat a bid on Green, is almost certainly not going to achieve that...

GWS might??? if not..
P5 for freos 10 + 22. We miss the future first, but can still make a lot of it happen

 

[mikey_san]

Can anyone make sense of that? Too controversial?? Too complex???
If nothing else, its an example of just how many scenarios may play out

Good option to downgrade the pick if Green and Young are gone. We still end up with a player from the next tier who are all pretty even until 10. I probably wouldn't do it if Green is still on the board though - take the risk, even if that only results in GWS not getting the extra pick.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

GWS might??? if not..
P5 for freos 10 + 22. We miss the future first, but can still make a lot of it happen

Not for me unless you can assure Kemp is there at 10

 

[caesar88]

Not for me unless you can assure Kemp is there at 10

I don't reckon Kemp will make it past 6

 

[SGBeach]

Good option to downgrade the pick if Green and Young are gone. We still end up with a player from the next tier who are all pretty even until 10. I probably wouldn't do it if Green is still on the board though - take the risk, even if that only results in GWS not getting the extra pick.

Yep, Id be keen to bid on Green.. just in case
or
Ask heaps from GWS for us to not bid on him. ie. p6 + p40 + future first.. f**k it, give us p59 also

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I don't reckon Kemp will make it past 6

That’s why I wouldn’t downgrade 5.

 

[WillHayward]

Stephens would be way too high at 5/6, probably falls in between out first and second. If Papley went for pick 9, that's a reasonable get.

Ranked 10th in this article so not that far away from 6.

Top 25 draft prospects

10. Dylan STEPHENS

Clubs: Norwood/South Australia

Position: Outside Midfielder

Size: 183cm, 74kg

Bio: Stephens should be the first South Australian selected in the 2019 draft, following a strong season across all levels. The left footer uses his pinpoint kicking to spot targets inside 50, likened to West Coast’s Andrew Gaff and GWS midfielder Josh Kelly. Stephens averaged 23.5 disposals during the Under 18 Championships and was named in the All-Australian team. He might only be lightly framed, but he held his spot in Norwood’s SANFL League team, winning the ball on the outside.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Ranked 10th in this article so not that far away from 6.

Top 25 draft prospects

That’s a fair way from pick 5-6. If the Papley trade went through he wouldn’t be out of place at selection 9.

 

[Opts]

Ranked 10th in this article so not that far away from 6.

Top 25 draft prospects

All of our good kicks are left footers. It'd be nice to get a right footer to play on the starboard side of the ground.