List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[RobbieK]

All players can do knee injuries it’s just bad luck. I’d prefer to take the most talented player and especially this year when we have two outstanding talents next year for relatively free. We can swing for the home run this year. It’s why I wouldn’t be ruling out Jackson as that seems a risk/reward selection, ditto Kemp

All players can do knee injuries, but ones who have already had one are significantly more likely to injure their knee again than a player who hasn't had a knee injury is likely to injure it for the first time.

That means it isn't "just bad luck". There are physiological factors that lead to the first injury or come about as a result of the treatment of the first injury that lead to a greater degree of recurrence.

 

[Mick Oxlong]

You do know that one person is not a great sample size don't you? Terrible analogy but it is the only one I can think of right now but there are criminals who get convicted of crimes but don't reoffend when released from prison. However, just because some don't reoffend, does not mean all of them don't. In fact, people who have been in prison are far more likely to commit more crimes in the future than those who have never been in prison.

One person? You did read the next sentence when I mentioned ‘many’? Stop ******* guessing because that’s all you’re doing...well either that or you heard it from some other moron that thinks this is true.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

All players can do knee injuries, but ones who have already had one are significantly more likely to injure their knee again than a player who hasn't had a knee injury is likely to injure it for the first time.

That means it isn't "just bad luck". There are physiological factors that lead to the first injury or come about as a result of the treatment of the first injury that lead to a greater degree of recurrence.

Or they can go their whole career being free from injuries. Everyone said the same about Joel Selwood...still waiting for his chronic knee issues to arise...

I’m of no doubt, barring the top 2, Kemp has the most talent assets. If we can get him at 5/6 that’s a steal

 

[Keyter]

off to bed but if I predict if Melb go Jackson at 3, swans go kemp at 5 or vice versa. ill shut up now. ps would love to see gc call green at 2....throw a pigeon into the fire....yee hah

 

[RobbieK]

Or they can go their whole career being free from injuries. Everyone said the same about Joel Selwood...still waiting for his chronic knee issues to arise...

I’m of no doubt, barring the top 2, Kemp has the most talent assets. If we can get him at 5/6 that’s a steal

Sure, he might not injure his knee again.

But it isn't "just luck".

 

[RobbieK]

One person? You did read the next sentence when I mentioned ‘many’? Stop ******* guessing because that’s all you’re doing...well either that or you heard it from some other moron that thinks this is true.

Your thoughts on the two links I provided earlier?

 

[caesar88]

Sure, he might not injure his knee again.

But it isn't "just luck".

It's not luck. The risk is present and very real, and were it a lesser prospect it honestly wouldn't even be a talking point.

Flynn Perez hasn't garnered much attention on here. Promising kid who did his ACL that effectively ruled him out of playing in his draft year. Because though he has potential, it may not be enough to warrant the risk attached, so no one's bothered to mention him besides as a possible candidate for our third round pick.

Kemp is a different matter though because he was basically touted as a top three talent leading up to his injury. If you have the chance to get a talent like that on your list, it's certainly worth trying, or at least strongly considering, regardless of the strings attached.

 

[SeanM]

I assume there would be a higher risk of future knee injuries or recovery issues. But I would still be happy to take Kemp with our first pick. I think we can afford to think about who can develop into the better player long term.

I don't know if the club will be gun shy given we have had other young players spending their early career on the sidelines or senior guys struggling to come back from knee injuries.

But I can see the club taking Kemp anyway if his potential excites them more than the alternatives around that pick.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Sure, he might not injure his knee again.

But it isn't "just luck".

It’s less of a risk taking Kemp than reaching for a player like we have done in the past in the first round. Kemp was a top 3 pick before the injury and it was a clean ACL which helps.

 

[RobbieK]

It’s less of a risk taking Kemp than reaching for a player like we have done in the past in the first round. Kemp was a top 3 pick before the injury and it was a clean ACL which helps.

In all likelihood we aren't going to be "reaching", we are going to be picking up one of Green, Younhg, Ash or Serong, who along with Kemp form what is a very close group of players just behind the clear top two in Rowell and Anderson. So, a player in more or less the same ballpark as Kemp, just without the ACL injury.

 

[Opts]

If GWS can't improve on their pick 6, I feel that Melbourne will bid on Green at 3. People keep talking about Green as if he is an option for us. He is not.
GWS will match any bid that comes for him.

An inside mid is the last thing Melbourne need. They need players like Ash and Young.

 

[Opts]

There is a 20% chance of suffering a second ACL so 80% of not. Based on those odds more likely won’t do another ACL.

What are the odds of AFL players in general doing one ACL? It would definately be less than 20%. I'd say around 10% (around 4 players per list). Technically that would mean that players who have done an ACL are twice as likely to do it again.

Not saying we shouldn't take Kemp. I think his potential outweighs the risk.

 

[TheMase]

All players can do knee injuries it’s just bad luck. I’d prefer to take the most talented player and especially this year when we have two outstanding talents next year for relatively free. We can swing for the home run this year. It’s why I wouldn’t be ruling out Jackson as that seems a risk/reward selection, ditto Kemp

They aren’t relatively free. We get a 20% discount but we still pay draft currency. Not to mention the millions invested in the academy!

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Second ACL injuries six times more likely after reconstruction, study finds

Anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) surgery is a common knee injury procedure, but the overall incidence rate of having to go through it again within 24 months is six times greater than someone who has never had an ACL tear, according to researchers.

www.sciencedaily.com

This paper seems to suggest that athletes who have already had ACL surgery are very significantly more likely to be having surgery for an ACL in the next two years than athletes who haven't.

Return to Play and Player Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Elite Australian Rules Football Players

Australian Rules football is a highly aerobic and anaerobic game that at times requires players to perform cutting or pivoting maneuvers, potentially exposing them to anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. At present, there are limited data available ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

This one is interesting too. The researcher is Matthew Liptak who some might recognise from his playing days with the Crows in the 90s.

There definitely has to be some concern about signing a player who has already done an ACL before they get to AFL level. It isn't certain that it will happen again, but it is more likely to happen to him than it is to a player who has never had the injury before and it will hamper his development/output. Enough concern not to draft him? Maybe, maybe not, but it is a factor that has him ranked below someone like Serong (who has not only been fit but actually also wants to be at the club) in my opinion.

The first study is irrelevant due to date and the skewed subject matter. Why in the world would they have 3/4 of the subjects female?
I think some players are susceptible, some cop one because they’re unlucky, but not necessarily susceptible.

We don’t know which Kamp Kemp falls in to.

 

[BloodySwan]

Thought this post on R&W online is pretty interesting

Swans chat Pre-season 2020 - Page 2

When does our pre-season start? When do 1st to 4th year players return to training? (were 5th year players included too in our most recent pre-season?) And what about the rest? Normally 2 weeks later I think. This article tells us the senior players have gone on holidays already after...

www.redandwhiteonline.com

 

[Mick Oxlong]

Thought this post on R&W online is pretty interesting

Swans chat Pre-season 2020 - Page 2

When does our pre-season start? When do 1st to 4th year players return to training? (were 5th year players included too in our most recent pre-season?) And what about the rest? Normally 2 weeks later I think. This article tells us the senior players have gone on holidays already after...

www.redandwhiteonline.com

Has been posted but not linked if I recall. A couple of BF locals posting on that page. It was a good read, cheer BS (ironic initials)!

 

[Kiama Chris]

Buddy & Sir Dane were the two veterans I was thinking of yeah.

The others I was thinking of were Dawson and Cunningham, with Blakey & Rowbottom the potentials. So five I guess. Not enough IMRO.

If we had a Kemp or a Young, that'd be one extra player with elite skills in the thick of the action for us.

The value of Cunningham's delivery is greatly underrated IMO. Seen him send it to Buddy's advantage from 50+ metres making an easy mark. Had a really good 2018 and was going well until injured. Tackles strongly too.

 

[Olian]

Very different situation. A first car crash does not increase the likelihood of a second car crash but an ACL drastically increases the chance of another ACL injury. I mean look at Patton, he was fine for his junior career and now he has done 3 of them. Malceski did them a few times as well and Natanui was fine for half his career but then he did one ACL and it led directly to another. Barely been on the park since doing that first ACL.

Mil Hanna did his ACL in his first AFL game and then went on to have a long career playing 190 games where he was known for his pace off the wing. Doing your ACL isn‘t the end of the world and yes there are those unfortunate players who suffer repeat ACL injuries but they are in the minority.

 

[Olian]

Second ACL injuries six times more likely after reconstruction, study finds

Anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) surgery is a common knee injury procedure, but the overall incidence rate of having to go through it again within 24 months is six times greater than someone who has never had an ACL tear, according to researchers.

www.sciencedaily.com

This paper seems to suggest that athletes who have already had ACL surgery are very significantly more likely to be having surgery for an ACL in the next two years than athletes who haven't.

Return to Play and Player Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Elite Australian Rules Football Players

Australian Rules football is a highly aerobic and anaerobic game that at times requires players to perform cutting or pivoting maneuvers, potentially exposing them to anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. At present, there are limited data available ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

This one is interesting too. The researcher is Matthew Liptak who some might recognise from his playing days with the Crows in the 90s.

There definitely has to be some concern about signing a player who has already done an ACL before they get to AFL level. It isn't certain that it will happen again, but it is more likely to happen to him than it is to a player who has never had the injury before and it will hamper his development/output. Enough concern not to draft him? Maybe, maybe not, but it is a factor that has him ranked below someone like Serong (who has not only been fit but actually also wants to be at the club) in my opinion.

Latrobe University has found that woman are 5-10 times more likely to incur an ACL injury than a male. So I’m not sure that you can compare female and male athletes given the disparity in the results.

Their is always a risk of incurring a second ACL but then you have Matthew Ling who came to the club in full health and has been struck down by injuries. Similarly with Alex Johnson I don’t believe he had a history of knee injuries pre joining the club. Injuries happen its the nature of the sport.

 

[swansfan51]

Brendan Goddard is an example of a player that tore his ACL then played 20+ games for 11 seasons in a row

Anyone can have an ACL injury

 

[LukeParkerno1]

In all likelihood we aren't going to be "reaching", we are going to be picking up one of Green, Younhg, Ash or Serong, who along with Kemp form what is a very close group of players just behind the clear top two in Rowell and Anderson. So, a player in more or less the same ballpark as Kemp, just without the ACL injury.

Lets hope we don't reach at all, no need to do it with pick 5 at the least. Of those options, almost rather take Kemp anyway. Serong is more your pick 7-10, he's solid but is he more than that? Personally don't want Young at all. Green ideally or Flanders.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

They aren’t relatively free. We get a 20% discount but we still pay draft currency. Not to mention the millions invested in the academy!

Fair. My point was purely aimed at the 2020 draft where it's no secret what will happen. We may have a pick before Gulden, but then its the academy boys.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

We have traded #48 to Carlton for their picks #54 and #63

Not a bad trade

 

[Tedeski]

ACL's ring alarm bells for me.
Sure there are players that in hindsight we can throw up as examples that they can have long careers.
Our recruiters will use some hindsight but will take into account the negative side of ACL injuries.

I'll kick off the list of potential super stars that will have you wondering whether pick 5 should be used on such a player.

Neal Daniher, Dan Menzel, Alex Johnson, Jon Patton, Lee Walker(absolute superstar material), Marc Dragicevic, Beau Muston, Anthony Morabito, Alex Woodward..............add more if you can.

There are arguments for both & anything can happen but I would prefer to take the best available player ready to go round 1 in our young team & one who would be less likely to go home before he is 25 YO.

Just my opinion.

 

[Arwib]

Second ACL injuries six times more likely after reconstruction, study finds

Anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) surgery is a common knee injury procedure, but the overall incidence rate of having to go through it again within 24 months is six times greater than someone who has never had an ACL tear, according to researchers.

www.sciencedaily.com

This paper seems to suggest that athletes who have already had ACL surgery are very significantly more likely to be having surgery for an ACL in the next two years than athletes who haven't.

Return to Play and Player Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Elite Australian Rules Football Players

Australian Rules football is a highly aerobic and anaerobic game that at times requires players to perform cutting or pivoting maneuvers, potentially exposing them to anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. At present, there are limited data available ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

This one is interesting too. The researcher is Matthew Liptak who some might recognise from his playing days with the Crows in the 90s.

There definitely has to be some concern about signing a player who has already done an ACL before they get to AFL level. It isn't certain that it will happen again, but it is more likely to happen to him than it is to a player who has never had the injury before and it will hamper his development/output. Enough concern not to draft him? Maybe, maybe not, but it is a factor that has him ranked below someone like Serong (who has not only been fit but actually also wants to be at the club) in my opinion.

The absolute risk is 30%, which if it's a 6-fold increase would be from a baseline of a 5% risk per player. That's still less than one-in-three, so it's not as though players with ACL injuries are automatically doomed to have more ACL injuries.

Interesting there is the prevalence of opposite leg injuries, that suggests better rehab being mindful of the stresses on the other leg might help reduce recurrence?