List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[Ticky009]

I genuinely have no clue where the Swans are going to go with our pick. Hell I don't think anyone knows what is happening beyond pick 2 as it seems no one is sure what Melbourne will do with pick 3. Usually by now the top 5 picks are pretty locked in, and the top 10 is very close to being locked in too.

Most draft experts, when being honest, have confessed they have no clue who the Swans are going to pick.

We’ve apparently circled the wagons and nothing is getting out

After the whole Daniher malarkey in the press I can just imagine Swans going stuff the lot of you!

 

[mikey_san]

Reading Champion Data's take on the draftees has me wanting more top 10 picks! Tipped to drift, Swan supporter Serong reads very well.

First time in a decade we've got the excitement of not knowing who we're getting with our top pick 10, the Phantom Drafts are all over the place.

That he's 83kg makes me think he' be a good pick despite the lack of height. Papley replacement if he chooses to go next year. Would be an excellent result if we traded down and around and got both Serong and Cooper Stephens in the first round.

 

[RUNVS]

That he's 83kg makes me think he' be a good pick despite the lack of height. Papley replacement if he chooses to go next year. Would be an excellent result if we traded down and around and got both Serong and Cooper Stephens in the first round.

Would Serrong likely be available at 10? If so I really do like the idea of trading our pick 5 to Fremantle for picks 10 and 21. We might be able to get both Serong and Stephens.

 

[anotherletdown]

Would Serrong likely be available at 10? If so I really do like the idea of trading our pick 5 to Fremantle for picks 10 and 21. We might be able to get both Serong and Stephens.

Neither will slide that far IMO.

This won’t be popular but the closer we get to this draft the more I think we should have let Papley go. I can’t see us getting better value next year and pick 9 or 10 would’ve been live, next year our first is likely to be dictated to us thru academy bidding. 5+9 couldve been really set us up well

 

[mtooler]

Neither will slide that far IMO.

This won’t be popular but the closer we get to this draft the more I think we should have let Papley go. I can’t see us getting better value next year and pick 9 or 10 would’ve been live, next year our first is likely to be dictated to us thru academy bidding. 5+9 couldve been really set us up well

Don't have to let him go next year either.

 

[SGBeach]

Neither will slide that far IMO.

This won’t be popular but the closer we get to this draft the more I think we should have let Papley go. I can’t see us getting better value next year and pick 9 or 10 would’ve been live, next year our first is likely to be dictated to us thru academy bidding. 5+9 couldve been really set us up well

you may be right.. but..
2020; Paps + our 1st = p3 may also be right
or Paps plays another 150 games in the red n white
???

 

[mikey_san]

Neither will slide that far IMO.

This won’t be popular but the closer we get to this draft the more I think we should have let Papley go. I can’t see us getting better value next year and pick 9 or 10 would’ve been live, next year our first is likely to be dictated to us thru academy bidding. 5+9 couldve been really set us up well

Only problem is we weren't offered 9. The deal was much worse than that, Carlton wanted 26 back - a ridiculous offer for a proven guy kicking this many goals and being the positive influence in the clubhouse he appears to be. I think we may have done the deal only to get Daniher - very glad we didn't on both ends.
A straight pick 9 deal for Papley was fair. North should have offered up their pick 8 to get him - they've constantly missed getting good players, would have been a very good win for them - might even have kept them from moving to Tassie. Anyway glad we kept him. And if he still wants to go next year, I'd expect nothing short of a top ten pick or Melbourne clubs can jog on.

 

[Wolftone]

Mills, Midfield?

Sorry I’m lost.



/

Mills played mids as a junior. He only developed into an intercept player quite by accident while still an Academy top up playing in the reserves.

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[Wolftone]

Change of subject..
I know this has been said before, but Im not up to reading back ... soooo many posts
How many Rookie spots.. and.. how many senior spots are available?

Originally after all retirements, delistings and trades there were 12 spots altogether. Then we traded in Taylor and got Grey and Brand as delisted free Agents. I am not sure but I think Tucker was a Rookie and we know Pink was so that is two Category A Rookie spots. Not that being a Category A Rookie is any impediment today as we no longer have to wait for injury to play them.

So 7 Full list spots and the Category A spots. We have already filled a Category B Rookie spot with the young Irishman. Wicks fills one so we still have one left. But generally we don't fill all spots on the list using only 38, I suspect this is due to salary cap restrictions. But this year we do have plenty of salary cap but I think we might be stockpiling it to retain players and maybe bring on one or two next year.

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[robbieando]

Originally after all retirements, delistings and trades there were 12 spots altogether. Then we traded in Taylor and got Grey and Brand as delisted free Agents. I am not sure but I think Tucker was a Rookie and we know Pink was so that is two Category A Rookie spots. Not that being a Category A Rookie is any impediment today as we no longer have to wait for injury to play them.

So 7 Full list spots and the Category A spots. We have already filled a Category B Rookie spot with the young Irishman. Wicks fills one so we still have one left. But generally we don't fill all spots on the list using only 38, I suspect this is due to salary cap restrictions. But this year we do have plenty of salary cap but I think we might be stockpiling it to retain players and maybe bring on one or two next year.

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Going with 38 players mean we can carry more rookie listed players. List sizes are capped at 47 players regardless of how many of senior players you have. Also with the mid season draft we added players to cover for injuries and retirements midseason. Your figures don't account for them (McLean and Knoll) staying when accounting for players leaving. We'll lose more players then we get back into the club this off season because of that.

So to be clear, we currently have 33 players signed to our senior list for next year, so that leaves 5 senior list spots currently available. We have 4 Category A rookies and 3 Category B rookies currently signed for next year thus we have only the 2 Category A list spots available with all our Category B spots filled.

 

[mtooler]

https://www.afl.com.au/draft/prospects reading short player profiles here was helpful.

My gut feel is 1. GC Rowell 2. GC Anderson 3. Melb Young 4. GWS Green 5. ADEL Flanders

6. Syd no idea absolutely none.

 

[barry fu]

Pronounced DINT INO SANTE...Simples....!!

The talk about him comes generally as a late/Rookie list chance. I watched a lot of him this year. JD is a very good player and a ripping kid, finished 2nd in Knights B and F after winning it last year as a bottom ager so he has backed up 2 very good years of NAB League footy. He is small plays with a lot of zip and goes well running around midfield but better as a small forward across the half forward line. He received a State Combine invite which means he as 3 clubs likely to be interested in him. Has a good knack of getting to where the ball will be, also shares it around as well. Defence needs work, courage, competitiveness and leadership is undisputed. Look up some highlights from Knights v Bushrangers this year will give a good example of what he can do.

Cheers ktt, fu's nephew mentioned this lad, along with Sam Philip and Ryan Byrnes, when queried on - Who's not mentioned and worth a mention.

Fu's nephew is up for conscription this draft, so he has played 1 or 2, of the unknown few. Mind you, this was a month ago...

 

[SGBeach]

Going with 38 players mean we can carry more rookie listed players. List sizes are capped at 47 players regardless of how many of senior players you have. Also with the mid season draft we added players to cover for injuries and retirements midseason. Your figures don't account for them (McLean and Knoll) staying when accounting for players leaving. We'll lose more players then we get back into the club this off season because of that.

So to be clear, we currently have 33 players signed to our senior list for next year, so that leaves 5 senior list spots currently available. We have 4 Category A rookies and 3 Category B rookies currently signed for next year thus we have only the 2 Category A list spots available with all our Category B spots filled.

Cheers..
Am I correct..
We can have between 38 - 40 players on the senior list? If 40, then the numbers on the Rookie list is reduced?

So will we take 4 in the draft and upgrade a Rookie?
take 5 in the draft?
Take what draft picks we think are a good chance of a future footy career and fill left over spots with the guys training with us at the moment but not listed?
Draft in the pre season supplementary draft?
or, any combination of the above?

Could it be the case we only want 38 players on the senior list for salary cap reasons,, maybe wanting to come in under the cap so that...
*next year we can add a chunk of cash to a free agent (ie. spend 95% of the cap this year so next year we can spend 105%,, and give that extra cash to the first year of a contract to a free agent eg Daniher) Their contract might read yr1 - $1.5mil, yr2 - $700k, yr3 - $700k.
*or, save cash for new contracts for all the young crew

 

[RobbieK]

Cheers..
Am I correct..
We can have between 38 - 40 players on the senior list? If 40, then the numbers on the Rookie list is reduced?

So will we take 4 in the draft and upgrade a Rookie?
take 5 in the draft?
Take what draft picks we think are a good chance of a future footy career and fill left over spots with the guys training with us at the moment but not listed?
Draft in the pre season supplementary draft?
or, any combination of the above?

Could it be the case we only want 38 players on the senior list for salary cap reasons,, maybe wanting to come in under the cap so that...
*next year we can add a chunk of cash to a free agent (ie. spend 95% of the cap this year so next year we can spend 105%,, and give that extra cash to the first year of a contract to a free agent eg Daniher) Their contract might read yr1 - $1.5mil, yr2 - $700k, yr3 - $700k.
*or, save cash for new contracts for all the young crew

We always run 38 on the senior list. That isn't something special for this year.

There is definitely a financial element to that decision. We can pay rookie listed players less and have them on single year contracts.

 

[barry fu]

Now, with other teams running midget midfielders and being considered contending clubs by the experts and salacious southern scribes.
Would it not seem short sighted not to nab - Serong The Swan, simply over his height, as his other numbers seem to stack up since day dot??

Let's look at Richmung, through the welding mask, and note D. Prestia centre squared.
The Loins, and their Neale and Zorko shrink show, and add an ass at GWS in Greene, to the low living list. It would seem silly to simply snub Serong The Swan over his height? Surely not Shirley, club Bloods boffins will not beget a future Bloods Superstar simply over the size of his latest Lufkin listing?

For some reason, there seems to be an over emphasis on midfield bulls or buffalos by some of late.
I trust Club Bloods boffins aren't also addicted to lumps for lumps sake.

 

[RobbieK]

Now, with other teams running midget midfielders and being considered contending clubs by the experts and salacious southern scribes.
Would it not seem short sighted not to nab - Serong The Swan, simply over his height, as his other numbers seem to stack up since day dot??

Let's look at Richmung, through the welding mask, and note D. Prestia centre squared.
The Loins, and their Neale and Zorko shrink show, and add an ass at GWS in Greene, to the low living list. It would seem silly to simply snub Serong The Swan over his height? Surely not Shirley, club Bloods boffins will not beget a future Bloods Superstar simply over the size of his latest Lufkin listing?

For some reason, there seems to be an over emphasis on midfield bulls or buffalos by some of late.
I trust Club Bloods boffins aren't also addicted to lumps for lumps sake.

Seeing is my favourite for our pick. Partially because he wants to be here. I think you can't undervalue that these days. He does fill a need, he is worthy of the pick based on his output, he isn't the tallest, but he is no midget either and solidly built. He isn't necessarily a "high risk, high reward" kind of player, but I don't think we should use a rare chance at a top 10 pick to gamble too much.

 

[kickthething]

Cheers ktt, fu's nephew mentioned this lad, along with Sam Philip and Ryan Byrnes, when queried on - Who's not mentioned and worth a mention.

Fu's nephew is up for conscription this draft, so he has played 1 or 2, of the unknown few. Mind you, this was a month ago...

Fu's nephew has a keen eye. I have a 2020 draft conscript in my midst who, along with his Dad, got to see these lads close up this year.

 

[barry fu]

Fu's nephew has a keen eye. I have a 2020 draft conscript in my midst who, along with his Dad, got to see these lads close up this year.

Run over by 1 or 2 was the nephew ktt.
Speaks very highly of those 3 known unknowns.

 

[barry fu]

Seeing is my favourite for our pick. Partially because he wants to be here. I think you can't undervalue that these days. He does fill a need, he is worthy of the pick based on his output, he isn't the tallest, but he is no midget either and solidly built. He isn't necessarily a "high risk, high reward" kind of player, but I don't think we should use a rare chance at a top 10 pick to gamble too much.

Some of fu's old fav's are short people, Stevie Wright, Tom Cruise, Colin Hounsell, old Kenny and David midget Murphy just to list a few.
Fu feels, if Serong becomes a Swan, we will be well rewarded in our risky business.

 

[Bandicoot]

https://www.afl.com.au/draft/prospects reading short player profiles here was helpful.

My gut feel is 1. GC Rowell 2. GC Anderson 3. Melb Young 4. GWS Green 5. ADEL Flanders

6. Syd no idea absolutely none.

The only possible way that GWS select Green at 4 is that they have done a pick swap with Adelaide meaning Adelaide's first pick would be 6. Therefore your scenario above of both GWS and Adelaide picking before us is an impossibility.

 

[DST]

The only possible way that GWS select Green at 4 is that they have done a pick swap with Adelaide meaning Adelaide's first pick would be 6. Therefore your scenario above of both GWS and Adelaide picking before us is an impossibility.

I think you are confused, what he is saying there is that Adelaide will bid on Green at 4, so GWS will match and move to 4 to take Green.

Adelaide then has the next pick at 5.

This is the most likely possibility out of all the scenarios unless GWS can pick swap with either Melbourne or Adelaide before their selection.


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[mtooler]

The only possible way that GWS select Green at 4 is that they have done a pick swap with Adelaide meaning Adelaide's first pick would be 6. Therefore your scenario above of both GWS and Adelaide picking before us is an impossibility.

GWS match Crows bid.

 

[BloodySwan]

https://www.afl.com.au/draft/prospects reading short player profiles here was helpful.

My gut feel is 1. GC Rowell 2. GC Anderson 3. Melb Young 4. GWS Green 5. ADEL Flanders

6. Syd no idea absolutely none.

I hope we get Jackson in this instance

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I hope we get Jackson in this instance

So long as our two seconds are genuine mids, and not flanker types.

 

[mikey_san]

Updated phantom draft: The first three rounds

With less than two weeks until the 2019 AFL Draft, ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft into the first three rounds.

www.espn.com.au

Has Young going to us - which would be good....I guess. Not as exciting as some other options given we have his spot more than covered already with Lloyd and a whole gang developing. Kicking might be a just a tad more adventerous than Lloyd's.
Hadn't read much about Ralphsmith or Elijah Taylor. Looking at the selections around 21-25 It would be great if we could move our second pick up somehow.