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List Mgmt. 2019 Draft Prospects

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If we trade our next year's first, we put ourselves in a tough spot if we want to bring in extra picks using 2021 picks
 
Looking at the trade swaps done so far, it seems to trade up you have to overpay. There also seems a few teams well stocked with lots of 15-40 picks who'll likely be in the uptrade market, don't think it's a market to be playing in.

Reckon it's not a bad time to trade down and if we got a crazy offer on trade night, could do so, otherwise stick with what we have.
Dream scenario would be someone sliding to our pick that either Geelong, Port or Gold Coast are desperate for, and picking up an extra pick for a minor downgrade of our first. If we could somehow land Bergman & Pickett it would set our list up very nicely.
 
Mcasey, Kemp, Weightman, Bergman. In that order from least to most likely. I don’t see any reality in which we don’t end up with one of them.
 

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That's surprising. I'll eat a steaming pile of dog crap if Serong ends up with the better career than Young. Would do the same for Jackson tbh. I really am not getting why the top end clubs are linked so strongly to those 2. Serong's disposal is awful, and Jackson is too short for an AFL-standard ruck while showing next to nothing at either end of the ground.

Young will enter the AFL and already be one of the best kicks in the competition. He shows vision and awareness that even some veterans don't have, and is a tough prick despite looking like a beanpole.

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If the numbers fall as most pundits, including our own BF observers, predict, then it does probably lead to a choice between Bergman and Pickett. Bergman is the obvious choice because of his versatility and skills. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we go early with Pickett. He satisfies two needs long advocated by most connected to the club: he's the dangerous small forward we have lacked for many years, and, he is indigenous. The latter is important, because we have long expressed the need to attract indigenous talent to the club for reasons beyond pure football advantage. One thing is certain, he's not going to be available at pick 53.
 
That's surprising. I'll eat a steaming pile of dog crap if Serong ends up with the better career than Young.
... or swim to Portsea Pub?
 
GWS now have pick 4, 40, 59 and 60

40 + 59 + 60 = 733 points, roughly pick 26.

If Green gets bid on by the Swans at pick 5 s expected, that's 1,878 points - 20% discount = 1,502 points = a 769 deficit to carry into the 2020 draft. That's more than pick 25 by itself.

That's huge. For example, that would push pick 10 back to pick 30.
Is that what happens in practice? I’ve never seen a team carry a huge draft points deficit forward so I’m not sure what actually happens. Given they also traded their first round pick in 2020 to Adelaide, does that mean their later picks all get downgraded? If they don’t have enough points do they end up just picking three players at the backend of the draft? What if they have a pick from another team traded in, does that pick then get downgraded?

I’m not sure how it works but it could be relevant not just for GWS but potentially us in the next draft if we don’t have enough points to match bids for our NGA players and father sons, so I wouldn’t mind knowing if anyone can explain it. Thanks
 

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If the numbers fall as most pundits, including our own BF observers, predict, then it does probably lead to a choice between Bergman and Pickett. Bergman is the obvious choice because of his versatility and skills. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we go early with Pickett. He satisfies two needs long advocated by most connected to the club: he's the dangerous small forward we have lacked for many years, and, he is indigenous. The latter is important, because we have long expressed the need to attract indigenous talent to the club for reasons beyond pure football advantage. One thing is certain, he's not going to be available at pick 53.

I’m warming to both of these players. I think Bergman is the safer bet but the thought of having a dynamic, small, aggressive forward, who has a bit of X Factor in the mould of Cyril, Cameron and co running around our forward half is pretty exciting.
 
That's surprising. I'll eat a steaming pile of dog crap if Serong ends up with the better career than Young. Would do the same for Jackson tbh. I really am not getting why the top end clubs are linked so strongly to those 2. Serong's disposal is awful, and Jackson is too short for an AFL-standard ruck while showing next to nothing at either end of the ground.

Young will enter the AFL and already be one of the best kicks in the competition. He shows vision and awareness that even some veterans don't have, and is a tough prick despite looking like a beanpole.
I have serong as the slider. Can't see young making it passed 5
 
If Bergman and Weightman are both still available at our pick who would we be most likely to select?

we definitely need a small pressure forward with good goal sense and Weightman seems to fit this bill, as does Liam Henry but he is going to Fremantle so even if we bid on him, we don’t get him, but either Weightman or Bergman could be there. Selecting Pickett could be a reach and if that is where we are going should we be trying to trade down?
 
If Bergman and Weightman are both still available at our pick who would we be most likely to select?

we definitely need a small pressure forward with good goal sense and Weightman seems to fit this bill, as does Liam Henry but he is going to Fremantle so even if we bid on him, we don’t get him, but either Weightman or Bergman could be there. Selecting Pickett could be a reach and if that is where we are going should we be trying to trade down?

Bergman has versatility and I know Bevo is keen on that, but Weightman fills a more pressing need. Neither of them will likely be best available at our pick. It’ll be an interesting one.
 
Twomey rates Elijah Taylor higher than Pickett. Any reason as to why Pickett will be drafted before Taylor?
Rumours of severe homesickness problems with Taylor (although clubs would do their due diligence in this area)

Also they're not really identical players - Taylor is a foot taller than Pickett, and plays a bit different. On ability, Taylor is marginally higher than Pickett, but a club avoiding homesickness problems, or a club wanting Pickett's type more, could result in him being drafted earlier
 

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I think Pickett at the feet of Naughty and Bruce is just something we need to put a heap of thought into, even if it is a little bit of a reach.

There’s going to be an absurd amount of crumbing opportunities next year in our forward line, and we really don’t currently have anybody who can utilise that
 
I think Pickett at the feet of Naughty and Bruce is just something we need to put a heap of thought into, even if it is a little bit of a reach.

There’s going to be an absurd amount of crumbing opportunities next year in our forward line, and we really don’t currently have anybody who can utilise that
Seems strange that we'd put our faith in an unknown quantity no other team rates nearly as highly as we do.
I would have rather traded for for one if that is the case.
 
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti maybe they tried and failed.
True. He isn't the only one. We don't know if we tried to target others but it sounds strange we'd depart from a long term modus operandi of taking the best available in the first round on the basis of having Josh Bruce on our list for four years.
 
Seems strange that we'd put our faith in an unknown quantity no other team rates nearly as highly as we do.
I would have rather traded for for one if that is the case.

It's a genuinely good point.

We use pick 13 on an unproven 'talent' and there is a growing core here that would be happy for it to happen...

...Yet had we offered 13 to Essendon for AM-T and this place would have exploded.

Perspective is an interesting thing.
 

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