List Mgmt. 2019 Draft Prospects

[CaptainMurphy]

About Weightman, does anyone want to do the work to figure out the success rate of first round small forwards vs those found later? My expectation is that it turns out it's one of those positions where it's actually pretty even, that you're just as likely to find quality small forwards late in the draft as you are in the first round. Which is why I'm not super excited about taking Weightman. Happy to be proven wrong though.

 

[doggiesin08]

IIRC that draft we rated Roughead marginally behind Griffen. Plenty of teams rated Tambling very highly too so if we traded up from 6 we might have ended up with Tambling. Again, it highlights the danger - and that's before we consider the additional cost of trading up.

I'm happy to just take pick 13 to draft and take best available. As for the inside mid example - if Dev Robertson is available, I'd be taking him regardless. Absolute gun.

What about a scenario where it is not Robertson but someone who is equal to or marginally behind McAsey on “best available” and also a less preferred “fit”. I’m all for best available but my question is in the context of a lot of people saying you can throw a blanket over 5-15 (which I understand may not be true or agreed with).

Not sure I follow that trading up is dangerous, rather I would say that making mistakes earlier in the draft seems to hurt more than in later rounds. Only commenting on the risk ignores the other key element of risk-reward.

Using your example from earlier, sure I’m happy we drafted Bont and not Boyd, but I bet Collingwood in hindsight wish they took the dangerous approach to trade up and get Bont before us rather than getting Scarenberg.

 

[Wizard17]

So some names for our later picks to look out for:

Ben Sokol (186cm, 85kg, 23yo MF)
James Rowe (173cm, 71kg, 20yo SF)
Josh Morris (186cm, 76kg, 18yo MF)
Ned Cahill (178cm, 77kg, 18yo SF)
Josh Honey (184cm, 85kg, 18yo MF)
Darcy Cassar (184cm, 82kg, 18yo Util)
Trey Ruscoe (190cm, 90kg, 18yo Util)
Mitch Georgiades (192, 82kg, 18yo KPF)

 

[Virgin Dog]

So some names for our later picks to look out for:

Ben Sokol (186cm, 85kg, 23yo MF)
James Rowe (173cm, 71kg, 20yo SF)
Josh Morris (186cm, 76kg, 18yo MF)
Ned Cahill (178cm, 77kg, 18yo SF)
Josh Honey (184cm, 85kg, 18yo MF)
Darcy Cassar (184cm, 82kg, 18yo Util)
Trey Ruscoe (190cm, 90kg, 18yo Util)

Sokol, Cahill, Honey and Cassar are the ones I'm really keen on

 

[weltschmerz]

So there's a pretty decent selection of small/medium forwards later on. If it was the case that Weightman was available at 13, along with McAsey or Stephens or Sharp, I wouldn't feel too bad about passing up Weightman for one of them and filling our need later on.

 

[Yojimbo]

So some names for our later picks to look out for:

Ben Sokol (186cm, 85kg, 23yo MF)
James Rowe (173cm, 71kg, 20yo SF)
Josh Morris (186cm, 76kg, 18yo MF)
Ned Cahill (178cm, 77kg, 18yo SF)
Josh Honey (184cm, 85kg, 18yo MF)
Darcy Cassar (184cm, 82kg, 18yo Util)
Trey Ruscoe (190cm, 90kg, 18yo Util)
Mitch Georgiades (192, 82kg, 18yo KPF)

Darren Flanigan from the stingrays was on the radio yesterday and said he rated Ned Cahill equal to Cody
Weightman it was quite interesting to listen to. The clubs seem to be angling for around 65 live picks
which may be eroded with some DFA and previously listed players like Luke Partington.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Cahill would be an amazing deal at 53. He works harder than just about any draftee I've seen.

 

[dogwatch]

About Weightman, does anyone want to do the work to figure out the success rate of first round small forwards vs those found later? My expectation is that it turns out it's one of those positions where it's actually pretty even, that you're just as likely to find quality small forwards late in the draft as you are in the first round. Which is why I'm not super excited about taking Weightman. Happy to be proven wrong though.

It would also be good to look at it the other way around - where have quality small forwards been selected in the draft?

I keep reading "quality small forwards can be found late in the draft" but is it really a fact? I haven't seen any substantiation of it.

Qualification threshold should be something like: any small forward who has played over 150 games or earned AA honours.

 

[0utsider]

It would also be good to look at it the other way around - where have quality small forwards been selected in the draft?

I keep reading "quality small forwards can be found late in the draft" but is it really a fact? I haven't seen any substantiation of it.

Qualification threshold should be something like: any small forward who has played over 150 games or earned AA honours.

May not meet the criteria of 150 games+ or AA honours but a quick scroll through the list of AFL listed small/medium forwards reveals a lot of more than serviceable players who would suit our needs and were taken after pick 25.

Breust was a rookie
Charlie Cameron was a rookie
Fantasia was pick 55
Tippa was a rookie
Gryan Miers was pick 57
Lachlan Murphy was a rookie
Papley was a rookie
Willie Rioli was pick 52
Ronke was a rookie
Liam Ryan was pick 26

Every one of those players would have a place in our forward line.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

It would also be good to look at it the other way around - where have quality small forwards been selected in the draft?

I keep reading "quality small forwards can be found late in the draft" but is it really a fact? I haven't seen any substantiation of it.

Qualification threshold should be something like: any small forward who has played over 150 games or earned AA honours.

Split the difference and look for a correlation between games played and draft position, if there's a strong negative correlation they are better taken earlier, no real correlation and they can be found anywhere.

Could also include goals kicked as that feels like a pretty indicative basic metric of small forward performance.

I've got exams to study for though so I'm not doing it.

 

[Doggstats]

May not meet the criteria of 150 games+ or AA honours but a quick scroll through the list of AFL listed small/medium forwards reveals a lot of more than serviceable players who would suit our needs and were taken after pick 25.

Breust was a rookie
Charlie Cameron was a rookie
Fantasia was pick 55
Tippa was a rookie
Gryan Miers was pick 57
Lachlan Murphy was a rookie
Papley was a rookie
Willie Rioli was pick 52
Ronke was a rookie
Liam Ryan was pick 26

Every one of those players would have a place in our forward line.

And so would Jordan DeGoey (pick 5), Toby Greene (pick 11), Jaidyn Stephenson (pick 6), Chad Wingard(pick 6) or Conor Rozee (pick 5).

 

[CaptainMurphy]

And so would Jordan DeGoey (pick 5), Toby Greene (pick 11), Jaidyn Stephenson (pick 6), Chad Wingard(pick 6) or Conor Rozee (pick 5).

De Goey (188cm), Stephenson (189cm), and Rozee (186cm) aren't small forwards.

 

[Doggstats]

De Goey (188cm), Stephenson (189cm), and Rozee (186cm) aren't small forwards.

They are all small/medium forwards, just like the post I replied to mentioned.

a quick scroll through the list of AFL listed small/medium forwards reveals a lot of more than serviceable players who would suit our needs and were taken after pick 25.

 

[0utsider]

And so would Jordan DeGoey (pick 5), Toby Greene (pick 11), Jaidyn Stephenson (pick 6), Chad Wingard(pick 6) or Conor Rozee (pick 5).

Ignoring the fact that every one of those players was/is seen as at least a part time midfielder making them much more valuable than someone like Weightman who is a pure small forward, the fact that you can find small forwards early isn’t really the point is it?

No ones saying that small forwards can’t be picked up early, just that very good ones can be found a lot cheaper later in the draft, leaving us to use our more valuable draft resources on player types which are less likely to be found later in the draft, like wingers.

 

[Doggstats]

Ignoring the fact that every one of those players was/is seen as at least a part time midfielder making them much more valuable than someone like Weightman who is a pure small forward, the fact that you can find small forwards early isn’t really the point is it?

No ones saying that small forwards can’t be picked up early, just that very good ones can be found a lot cheaper later in the draft, leaving us to use our more valuable draft resources on player types which are less likely to be found later in the draft, like wingers.

The same could be said for inside midfielders though right?

Sam Mitchell pick 36
Dane Swan pick 58
Lachie Neale pick 58
Rory Sloane pick 44
Nat Fyfe pick 20
Robbie Gray pick 55
Dan Hannebery pick 40
Jack Steven pick 42
Tom Rockliff undrafted/PSD
Josh P Kennedy pick 40
Dayne Beams pick 29

Could also throw in Gary Ablett Jr pick 40 f/s who many believed would have gone around pick 25-30 in an open draft at the time.

So knowing this should GC pass on Rowell because they might find great inside mids cheaper later in the draft? Of course not. He's a star.

No draft pick is a guarantee, so you gotta try nail as many as you can, especially your early picks. Which is why Dalrymple was so big on taking best available with early picks. You just gotta find a star, whatever position they may play.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

They are all small/medium forwards, just like the post I replied to mentioned.

Fair. I didn't read that post so closely. My original post that kicked this discussion off only referred to small forwards so I assumed it continued that way.

I'd still like to see an analysis done focussing purely on small forwards. My (at this point uninformed) prediction is that they are found just as easily later, unlike other positions. The reverse of key forwards, which as far as I know usually need earlier picks much more than other positions do.

 

[0utsider]

The same could be said for inside midfielders though right?

Sam Mitchell pick 36
Dane Swan pick 58
Lachie Neale pick 58
Rory Sloane pick 44
Nat Fyfe pick 20
Robbie Gray pick 55
Dan Hannebery pick 40
Jack Steven pick 42
Tom Rockliff undrafted/PSD
Josh P Kennedy pick 40
Dayne Beams pick 29

Could also throw in Gary Ablett Jr pick 40 f/s who many believed would have gone around pick 25-30 in an open draft at the time.

So knowing this should GC pass on Rowell because they might find great inside mids cheaper later in the draft? Of course not. He's a star.

No draft pick is a guarantee, so you gotta try nail as many as you can, especially your early picks. Which is why Dalrymple was so big on taking best available with early picks. You just gotta find a star, whatever position they may play.

Fair point, without doing a complete breakdown of percentages of success in each position and draft round we’re just speculating.

I’m not opposed to taking Weightman at 13 however Stephens and McAsey are still above him on my list as, at least in this particular draft pool, I think we’re less likely to find similar players in the later rounds.

 

[Dry Rot]

What is Gould's form like against men in SAFL? Any videos?

 

[Yojimbo]

What is Gould's form like against men in SAFL? Any videos?

Lots of footage, tried to download, but stuffed it. Google Will Gould Glenelg Football Club plenty of footage.

Excellent kick, does play like Shannon Hurn maybe a KFC loving clone.

Challenge: Drop to 95 kg by the draft.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

If we could turn 13 into Sharp and Taylor that would be a pretty amazing outcome.

 

[Yojimbo]

Lots of footage, tried to download, but stuffed it. Google Will Gould Glenelg Football Club plenty of footage.

Excellent kick, does play like Shannon Hurn maybe a KFC loving clone.

Challenge: Drop to 95 kg by the draft.

Mark Roberts (The Fridge) Syd, Bris, North, 190 cm and 92 kg
Leigh Brown 194 cm and 104 kg bulked up to Ruck

Two legendary players both + 200 Gamers who liked the beef, Roberts probably the best example 106 kg is
too much weight to put through your joints .

 

[Yojimbo]

If we could turn 13 into Sharp and Taylor that would be a pretty amazing outcome.

Taylor talent big yes, but there are some questions. Sharp is 189 cm now has grown.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Can anyone trace back the Weightman rumours to anything solid? Pretty much every single mock draft has him going to us at this point. Is it just an echo chamber though?

 

[Triple Baileys]

I got a question. Forgive me if it has been dealt with already in these pages.

Can Roarke and Lachie Young just continue next year on the rookie list or does something need to be done to retain them?

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Can anyone trace back the Weightman rumours to anything solid? Pretty much every single mock draft has him going to us at this point. Is it just an echo chamber though?

Small forward our obvious need. Anyone can see he'd be in consideration if available. Don't think we need a leak